55% chance of Severe Geomagnetic Storms - SpaceWeather.com

I'm posting this because many of us check this site a lot, though I've never seen a reading of 55% for the "severe" category...

ONE DOWN, TWO TO GO: As predicted by analysts at the GSFC Space Weather Lab, the first of three CMEs produced by the recent spate of flare activity reached Earth during the late hours of August 4th. The impact was weak and is not expected to produce strong geomagnetic storms. Two more CMEs are still on the way and, as described below, they may have merged into a single cloud that could produce significant storming when they reach Earth on August 5th at 10:00 UT (plus or minus 7 hours). A new model of all 3 CMEs is now available; stay tuned for updates.

SpaceWeather.com...

Have any of you seen a forecast this high?

Your thoughts?
Good day...

reply to post by rstregooski

Have any of you seen a forecast this high?

During the last solar maximum...

Was only 11 years ago, yet it seems everyone thinks solar flares and CME's are new or something

reply to post by Chadwickus


Alright, to clarify: I haven't seen that number so high in seven years. Not trying to pull the fire alarm, but that is a rather significant number...

reply to post by rstregooski


All good, it was a general comment, not having a go at you.

Just seems that a dozen threads pop up whenever the sun does what it's been doing for millions of years...

reply to post by rstregooski


Thanks for info. It will be nice chance to test my hypothesis that my boss headaches are somehow connected with geomagnetic activity.

Originally posted by Chadwickus
Was only 11 years ago, yet it seems everyone thinks solar flares and CME's are new or something

Originally posted by Chadwickus
Just seems that a dozen threads pop up whenever the sun does what it's been doing for millions of years...

While what you say here is correct, you ignore the fact that we are increasingly vulnerable to geomagnetic storms. Just because something has been happening for millions of years, doesn’t mean that the people of Earth have been impacted by it in the same way. People before electricity were vastly less affected by these storms than people 50 years ago. We, today, are vastly MORE affected than people 50 years ago. And, people today are even more vulnerable than people of just 11 years ago…

I wouldn’t want you in charge of emergency planning in my community/country/part of the world and I sure am glad that others are taking this high threat seriously.

You might want to go check out this report: www.ornl.gov...

When reviewing the occurrence of large storms, it is important to recognize that the
problem of power system impacts is compounded by growing vulnerability of this
infrastructure to geomagnetic disturbances. The extent of the growth in vulnerability
over time is due to factors stemming from the growth of the high-voltage transmission
grid in the U.S., as well as changes within the grid that introduce new or enhance existing
impact problems to the power grid. Figure 1-2 shows the growth of the U.S. high voltage
transmission grid over the last 50 years. This geographically widespread infrastructure
readily couples through multiple ground points to the geo-electric field produced by
disturbances in the geomagnetic field. As shown, from Cycle 19 through Cycle 22, the
high voltage grid grew nearly tenfold. In essence, the antenna that is sensitive to
disturbances has grown dramatically over time. As this network has grown in size, it has
also grown in complexity. As will be discussed in later sections, one of the more
important changes in the technology base for the U.S. power grid that can increase
impacts to geomagnetic storms is the evolution to higher operating voltages of the
network. The operating levels of the high voltage network has increased from the 115-
230kV levels of the 1950’s to networks that operate from 345kV, 500kV and 765 kV
across the continent.

i wonder if this had to do with my internet conection sucking so bad and not having signal.

reply to post by rstregooski


Thanks for posting. Flagged. I have watched every day for the past couple of years and have never noticed such a hike in numbers. I'll be watching for any geological activity as there are many folks that connect these two things. We shall see.

reply to post by Iamonlyhuman


We are also a lot more prepared than we were 11 or 50 years ago.

Don't get me wrong, a big solar storm is a real threat, not as threatening as some believe though, but a threat nonetheless.

The US power grid is still quite vulnerable, geomagnetic storms love long span power lines.

Even more reason to get off the grid

Might I take the OP on a slightly different path.

We are on the precipice of a Second Great Worldwide Depression--in the age of real time knowledge of events in markets, political halls of power all over the globe. Does anyone else see 'flare affects' on the grid, the internet, as cover to either out right shut down or slow down the internet (sharing of information).

We have had major flares before with no real affects...could this series be the one that is found 'useful' to those who need cover?

So its currently 16:46:26 UT, and space weather says the CME should reach Earth on August 5th at 10:00 UT plus or minus 7 hours. Meaning it has already hit or or still can hit in the next hour or so? Also noticed the UV index is capped on a few weather sites. Not sure how that is affected.

Yes its high..... I have been watching the activity for about a week now. Its been kind of neat. But its nothing to worry about.... the 55% is from the M9.6 flare/cme release yesturday morning. Right now the sun has quieted down alot. The flare came from the very active sunspot 1261. They been afraid of an Xclass to go off from 1262 but so far no dice. So in short there might be a slight sat. disruption and very pretty northern lights. But if your expecting an E.L.E. well your going have to wait for another day.

Solar Flare activity for the past 3 days and up to the minute data.

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

If you look on the fourth you will see the M9.6 flare.

The first (of three) CME arrived at about 11:00 UTC. Didn't do much.


Still waiting on the next two.

it is neat tho the next two are actually combined into one cloud. The CME yesturday has over taken the one that went off on the 3rd, and now are one. My daughter said it was like watching an episode of Dragon Ball Z. She is young but it was a bit cute.

On the archives you can see a SOHO/Stereo video and you can see the energy charge start in Sunspot 1262/63 then move across and just under the surface of the sun to Sunspot 1261 then to Sunspot 1260 then back to 1261 then the release.

I really find this stuff interesting.

It looks like the CME has arrived at the ACE satellite.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...


Keep an eye on the magentometers.
www.swpc.noaa.gov...
geomag.usgs.gov...

Hi guys, I'm sure you're all aware of this anyway, but you should check out SolarWatcher's YouTube Channel. He's very informative and not a fear-mongerer.

www.youtube.com...

P.S. This is my first post so please be nice

reply to post by Phage


Phage, I have few questions since you posted. I am sure you are aware of the fact we have 3 comets moving within the inner solar system. Levy, 45P/Honda and of course Elenina (or now called Elenin), and other asteroids.

Since comets outgas the closer they get to a star like our sun. So Honda here in a few days is coming close to earth from under us at a steep incline. If I remember right the closest it gets is on the 16th-18th this month. Then leaves and head to the sun but not around it. But at the same time Elenin is coming in from the other side at a steep decline. To shorten this.... with the fact of 3 comets on our side but inbetween the sun and the earth would that have an effect on the sun with the pull of the mag. of the solar flares?

And another point I have been wondering.... they just came out with the first photo's of Elenin. They measured the coma to be 200,000 km wide as it stands now. And if the closest it gets to earth is 30,000 km wouldn't earth be within its coma?

reply to post by TimesEnd

I don't know what you mean when you say "Then leaves and head to the sun but not around it". Comets orbit the Sun, they go around it (unless they fall into it).

Comets have no effect on the Sun.

The closest Elenin will get to Earth is 34,407,540 kilometers.

reply to post by Phage


Sorry sometimes what I am thinking doesn't come out right when I type.

What I mean is that they never go to the blind side of the sun so the earth loses track of them.

Now to the mag. of the sun I didn't mean the whole sun. What I ment is would the comets, cause they are magneticly and static charged from thier deep runs out out of our solar systems, would they have an affect on solar flares. Like would they have a pull on the magnetic ropes that stem from the sunspots?

I'm not looking for an E.L.E. or any of that crap. I was just wondering what your take would be on it.

reply to post by TimesEnd

Comets are not electrically or magnetically charged. When they get close enough to the Sun that they are warmed and start outgassing the gasses become ionized by solar radiation. As that ionized material is pushed by the solar wind very slight magnetic fields are created.

Comets have no remote effects on the Sun or any other bodies.