Solar activity warrants watching

Over the last 4 days the eastern limb of the sun has erupted with several sunspots harboring energy for M and X class flares. These sunspots will turn and be facing earth over the next 5-6 days, a major earth directed flare could happen during this period.

While the chance of a catastrophic flare is low, below I will explain why the in next few days we will be particularly vulnerable to solar flares.

As per current projections, a fast-moving solar wind stream flowing from a coronal hole on the sun should impact the earth's magnetic field on July 30th and 31st. This stream will weaken the earths magnetosphere by bombarding it with charged particles that push against the magnetosphere, this makes us particularly vulnerable to the effects of solar flares as is it the magnetosphere that protects us from solar events.

Visit Spaceweather to see more info about this coronal hole.

I don't know how to embed the image from the above link, but it shows the extent of activity on the eastern limb of the sun. This amount of activity following.a week and a half of abnormally low solar activity is definitely cause for some concern. The current prediction is 40% chance of M flare over next 24 hours amd 5% chance of X flare over next 24 hours

I don't foresee a major problem arising from this, but we can only dodge these solar bullets for so long before one clps us the wrong way and fries our power grids, I'd keep an eye over the next few days just to be safe

I've been watching.. how very active.. a lot of x-rays.. not so much with the cme's yet. would be a bad time for the electrical grid to be bombarded.

Originally posted by BornParadox
I've been watching.. how very active.. a lot of x-rays.. not so much with the cme's yet. would be a bad time for the electrical grid to be bombarded.

Or a good time for it to be bombarded?!?

Perhaps someone with a more scientific knowledge than I have can answer something for me on this. I've reaad various detailed accounts about the 1859 Carrington Event and have a solid grasp of just what it would mean for it to repeat in the modern technology based world we live in. My question is how do we defend anything we have against the period where radiation is at it's highest and is peaking on destructive effects to anything wired or electronic?

I've thought about a Faraday cage built specifically for the purpose of putting things inside for the brief period where the damage is actually possible/likely but here is where my knowledge just isn't there and it's a bit on the expensive side to build even a several square foot box/cage just to see if it MIGHT work. So is anyone here particularly knowledgeable in that area and would know if it would work against the electromagnetic radiation of the 1859 event repeated in the near future?

i think this is normal for this to happen this time of year, isnt it?

Very recently i have read somewhere that sun is very quiet, without any spots/flares which was quite unusual. But i don't think that was true. Or may be, a calm before a storm.

reply to post by Wrabbit2000


With respect to the US power grid, at issue are CME induced DC (direct current) ground currents that can saturate the magnetic cores inside transformers. Saturation causes the transformer to dissipate an enormous amount of heat very quickly (~0.020 seconds) leading to melting and fires. The numerous system grounds on utility poles help to ensure safety in our homes, but could also destroy the grid during an extreme solar event because these connections cannot limit current flow.

Best regards,
Z

Is this the pic you wanted to embed?
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/cdaf58a8de5d.jpg[/atsimg]

There are currently 3 sunspot regions causing this activity. After some weeks of minor activity with only minor B-class flares, we are now seeing many C-class events and untill now one M-class event.
I think we will see more of this from the new ssregion on the norteast limb with a chance of M-class flares
They are now facing earth's direction so any CME from these regions will hit earth in 2 to 4 days after an event.
The coming days we will see some geomagnetic disturbance from a coronal hole that was facing us but they will be minor and sure will not affect our power grid.

In the photo you can see the magnetic lines between sunspots, notice these region and the new ss on the left, if these get mixed we could have some eruption or flares, we will just have to wait and see whats she is up to
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3fe9d71cd5ad.jpg[/atsimg]
feel free to contribute to the solar watch thread for adding updates on solar activity

IMO nothing is abnormal on solar activity we just dont know what is normal yet

Originally posted by Wrabbit2000
Perhaps someone with a more scientific knowledge than I have can answer something for me on this. I've reaad various detailed accounts about the 1859 Carrington Event and have a solid grasp of just what it would mean for it to repeat in the modern technology based world we live in. My question is how do we defend anything we have against the period where radiation is at it's highest and is peaking on destructive effects to anything wired or electronic?

I've thought about a Faraday cage built specifically for the purpose of putting things inside for the brief period where the damage is actually possible/likely but here is where my knowledge just isn't there and it's a bit on the expensive side to build even a several square foot box/cage just to see if it MIGHT work. So is anyone here particularly knowledgeable in that area and would know if it would work against the electromagnetic radiation of the 1859 event repeated in the near future?

Actually I typed in 'Faraday Cage' in the search box and found 10 pages on it at ATS alone. I'm sure google would give a few hundred.

Remember, Search is your friend!!!!

Awesome