Venezuela next country on the agenda for the US?

Read this.......

It makes the case that Venezuela could be next on the Bush "hit list." The president is Hugo Chavez Prias, who is an admirer of our good friend from Cuba, Mr. Castro. They also happen to be the third largest oil supplier to the US.

What do you all think?

Ohh, I just noticed this....

On 15 August 2004 Venezuelans will vote in a referendum on whether to recall President Hugo Chavez or allow him to complete his term in office. His opponents say he is emulating the failed policies of Cuba's Communist dictatorship. They also say Mr. Chavez is a threat to Venezuelan democracy. Venezuelan authorities have launched politically motivated investigations against recall supporters, including Sumate, a Venezuelan civic organization that is promoting voter education and mobilization. The August 15th recall vote will determine President Hugo Chavez's political future and will send an important message about the future of democracy in Venezuela.

Any one know how it is going?

Depends what you mean. We have things more or less taken care of in Venezuela- the president is trying to head up a intra-latinoamerica petroleum corp. There won't be any war called on Venezuela yet...let them finish up in the middle east.

With Venezuala's vast natural resources and production capability it would be a worthwhile target.

You wouldn't think we would have a reason to invade an innocuous South American country, but upon reading that article you see that Prias has close ties to Castro, the plot thickens.

The claim that Hugo Chavez wants to copy Fidel Castro, repeatedly denied by the government, received fresh impetus in July 2003. The catalyst was the launch of a nationwide literacy campaign designed in Cuba. There have also been renewed allegations that Cuban doctors and sports instructors, as well as teachers, sent in the hundreds by Fidel Castro, are part of an indoctrination scheme aimed at introducing communism by stealth......Chavez made a deal with Cuba�s Fidel Castro, though many of the deal�s provisions � like bartering Venezuelan goods for Cuban doctor and other professional services � were questionable in the norms of international trade. Details of the deal were suppressed from traditional Venezuelan media, but those details did leak out via the Web.

This Prias character seems to be slightly unstable and very radical. If the conditions are favorable for an "acceptable" regime change, I'm sure it's entirely possible.

BBC piece on today's recall

Originally posted by PistolPete
This Prias character seems to be slightly unstable and very radical. If the conditions are favorable for an "acceptable" regime change, I'm sure it's entirely possible.

Exactly whatI was thinking. The question then becomes, if the vote is close, and he refuses give up his presidency, would that be all that is needed, or would there have to be something bigger?

BTW, what part of PA do you live in?

Originally posted by American Mad Man
Exactly whatI was thinking. The question then becomes, if the vote is close, and he refuses give up his presidency, would that be all that is needed, or would there have to be something bigger?

I thought of that scenario, he gets voted out and refuses to leave power and becomes a military dictator like Castro. I think that, powered by a propaganda machine, would be enough. But that's probably getting a head of ourselves.

I'm pretty interested in how this recall plays out now. And it seems Jimmy Carter's there.

My father worked in Venezuela in the mid-90's, the complex he worked at was the largest industrial complex in South America. The refinery that was along the river stretched for 20 miles, and I believe it was government owned. There's a lot more of the black stuff there then people realize.

Oh, I'm near Erie.

Didn't we sell them the touch screen voting machines? The election will come out exactly as programed.

Respects,

The US is spread pretty thin right now. Also, how will the government be able to spin this to get the American public online? Venezualian terrorists? Not buying that one. Maybe we can go back to the Regan years and attack Ven. as another "War on Drugs"?

Originally posted by intrepid
The US is spread pretty thin right now. Also, how will the government be able to spin this to get the American public online? Venezualian terrorists? Not buying that one. Maybe we can go back to the Regan years and attack Ven. as another "War on Drugs"?

I don't know, but they'll think of something.
Maybe they'll try the ploy they wanted to use on Cuba (Operation Northwoods) :

abcnews.go.com...

The documents show "the Joint Chiefs of Staff drew up and approved plans for what may be the most corrupt plan ever created by the U.S. government," writes Bamford.

The Joint Chiefs even proposed using the potential death of astronaut John Glenn during the first attempt to put an American into orbit as a false pretext for war with Cuba, the documents show.

Should the rocket explode and kill Glenn, they wrote, "the objective is to provide irrevocable proof � that the fault lies with the Communists et all Cuba [sic]."

If you read up on the full extent of this plan: they advocated engineering domestic terrorist attacks they could then pin on Castro.

They'll find a way. With a public as gullible as ours, one can think up an endless amount of ways to engineer public support for just about any war campaign. Our ignorance kills people (about ten thousand civilians in the Iraq invasion, and counting).

Theoretically, even with a well-informed population of critical thinkers, there is a way if there is a will to war, so with the US: piece of piss (like we say over here in Oceania).

U.



[edit on 15-8-2004 by upuaut]

Originally posted by intrepid
The US is spread pretty thin right now.

They can remedy that...

news.yahoo.com.../afp/20040815/ts_alt_afp/us_europe_asia_military_040815195819

I think the US should get off of Cuba's butt. Every time they get involved there they look silly. I'm talking about the gov't, not the people.

I know this isn't the place for predictions or anything, but I had a strange dream about the US invading Venezuela the other night. It was one of those that you get the odd feeling that it might happen.

Originally posted by PistolPete
You wouldn't think we would have a reason to invade an innocuous South American country,

You wouldn't think so but it's been done many times, usually covertly.

CIA and Assassinations: The Guatemala 1954 Documents
The first CIA effort to overthrow the Guatemalan president--a CIA collaboration with Nicaraguan dictator Anastacio Somoza to support a disgruntled general named Carlos Castillo Armas and codenamed Operation PBFORTUNE--was authorized by President Truman in 1952. As early as February of that year, CIA Headquarters began generating memos with subject titles such as "Guatemalan Communist Personel to be disposed of during Military Operations," outlining categories of persons to be neutralized "through Executive Action"--murder--or through imprisonment and exile. The "A" list of those to be assassinated contained 58 names--all of which the CIA has excised from the declassified documents.

BRAZIL MARKS 40th ANNIVERSARY OF MILITARY COUP
DECLASSIFIED DOCUMENTS SHED LIGHT ON U.S. ROLE
In this 5:08 minute White House tape obtained from the Lyndon Baines Johnson Library, President Johnson is recorded speaking on the phone from his Texas ranch with Undersecretary of State George Ball and Assistant Secretary for Latin America, Thomas Mann. Ball briefs Johnson on that status of military moves in Brazil to overthrow the government of Joao Goulart who U.S. officials view as a leftist closely associated with the Brazilian Communist Party. Johnson gives Ball the green light to actively support the coup if U.S. backing is needed. "I think we ought to take every step that we can, be prepared to do everything that we need to do" he orders. In an apparent reference to Goulart, Johnson states "we just can't take this one." "I'd get right on top of it and stick my neck out a little," he instructs Ball.

Chile and the United States:
Declassified Documents relating to the Military Coup, 1970-1976
In a secret cable, CIA deputy director of plans, Thomas Karamessines, conveys Kissinger's orders to CIA station chief in Santiago, Henry Hecksher: "It is firm and continuing policy that Allende be overthrown by a coup." The "operating guidance" makes it clear that these operations are to be conducted so as to hide the "American hand," and that the CIA is to ignore any orders to the contrary from Ambassador Korry who has not been informed of Track II operations.

There are many more instances of CIA backed Coups and military intervention in South/Central America.

Here's a long list here:
www.zompist.com...

Wow, from the responses so far it sees most feel the US will go in.

Personally, I think that a rigged election is more likely. The US would probably want to avoid another war for umpteen thousand reasons. However, the US does have a lot riding on that oil, what with the current situation and all. I think a CIA agent would look really good in that office....

Originally posted by Flinx
They can remedy that...

news.yahoo.com.../afp/20040815/ts_alt_afp/us_europe_asia_military_040815195819

That's freaking scary man. That insane guy figured out that the Cold War is over and he's going to redeploy those forces? Makes me GLAD not to be an American. He is putting a BIG target on your families.

Originally posted by intrepid

Originally posted by Flinx
They can remedy that...

news.yahoo.com.../afp/20040815/ts_alt_afp/us_europe_asia_military_040815195819

That's freaking scary man. That insane guy figured out that the Cold War is over and he's going to redeploy those forces? Makes me GLAD not to be an American. He is putting a BIG target on your families.

What are you getting all worked up about? All that he is doing is bringing some of our boys home. What is wrong with that? You would think that people against US military action around the world would be happy that we "realize the cold war is over" instead of having hundreds of thousands of soldiers deployed around the world.

Post-Vietnam, America has generally shied away from overt ops in Latin America, with the exception of Panama.

[Personally, I thought that the real reason for troops was a reclamation of the Panama Canal, which Carter gave away. It is "officially" Panamanian, but for a while in '89, Panama was full of Chinese 'engineers' From the PRC, who evidently wanted to make an offer on the canal . . .]

++++++

The real question is, how cohesive and entrenched is Chavez' political organization?

For example, In Iraq, Baath was so heirarchical that it could continue to function w/o Saddam. It did so fairly effectively until about March or so.

If his party is entrenched, it will take an invasion to dislodge it.

But if there are rifts within his followers' ranks, then an 'accident' from a lone anarchist, a la Salvador Allende, might be arranged. It worked on Che as well. (Kennedy, too.)

If his party is cohesive, but not entrenched in the civilian society, then revolutionaries doing covert ops is the best route. This worked on Daniel Ortegas Sandinistas in Nicaragua. Ortega was never assasinated, but his popular support was eroded by the continual insurgent turmoil.

Probably the easiest ouster, with less poop on the hands of Uncle Sam, is the disclosure of an extramarital affair, or embezzlement. How prudish are the lower classes in Venezuela? In some countries (France), the public is proud of the President's concubine. In others, it she's considered an embarrasment.

From the article, it sounds like there is already a serious opposition movement. Easier then to let them unearth some political damage, or have them stage a coup which fails, yet manages to take out Chavez in a firefight . . .

I don't think military occupation will get the US or its allies anywhere.

On the flip side, Canada, Sa'ud, et al might want to keep Chavez in place, in order to shore up long term oil prices, since he's a damper on OPEC production.

So what do THEY need to do, to keep him in play?

Just on a personal note: I like Chavez. He has balls. And he is willing to make decisions which are very unpopular with the big dawg up north, in the interest of Venezuela and her people. If more South American leaders went this route, their countries would be less plagued by poverty, and we would have less ilegal immigration flooding the US.

U.

So you would not object to a Cuban styled Communist government in Venezuela because you think it would be best fr the people?

If you are worried about poverty, I can tell you that comunism is not it's solution.

Originally posted by American Mad Man
So you would not object to a Cuban styled Communist government in Venezuela because you think it would be best fr the people?

If you are worried about poverty, I can tell you that comunism is not it's solution.

Chavez has been in power for a while now. For all the hype and propaganda being disseminated, his government is very dissimilar to Cuba's. Just because he is implimenting the positive aspects of Cuba's regime does not allow you to bash him.
For one, he is not a dictator as of yet, or did that subtlety escape you?

U.