Oil hits $46, What is China up to?

Oil prices have hit $46 a barrel, with reports showing a 40% comsumption increase by China in only a year. What is going on here? Is China intentionally driving up prices, or do they know something that we do not?

[edit on 8/13/2004 by soulforge]

Originally posted by soulforge
Is China intentionally driving up prices, or do they know something that we do not?

Short answer: Yes.

Longer answer: China's economy is white hot. This is the primary reason for their increased oil consumption.

However, it is always important to remember that the government still has strong influence over China's economy.

Helping to keep international oil prices up at this time is probably in line with China's political objectives.

Originally posted by Majic
China's economy is white hot. This is the primary reason for their increased oil consumption.

However, it is always important to remember that the government still has strong influence over China's economy.

Helping to keep international oil prices up at this time is probably in line with China's political objectives.

Sorry, but I can't follow the logic that in a white hot economy with terriffic expansion and ever-increasing oil needs equates to a desire to see prices rise. If they need more and more oil, they'll want it to be cheaper and cheaper lest its expense begins to inhibit overall economic growth.

Your argument doesn't make sense unless their economic growth is based on oil production.

Originally posted by chaosrain

Originally posted by Majic
China's economy is white hot. This is the primary reason for their increased oil consumption.

However, it is always important to remember that the government still has strong influence over China's economy.

Helping to keep international oil prices up at this time is probably in line with China's political objectives.

Sorry, but I can't follow the logic that in a white hot economy with terriffic expansion and ever-increasing oil needs equates to a desire to see prices rise. If they need more and more oil, they'll want it to be cheaper and cheaper lest its expense begins to inhibit overall economic growth.

Your argument doesn't make sense unless their economic growth is based on oil production.

Let me attempt to clarify since I believe I understand. China actually does -need- the oil. The more oil they can afford the more they can increase their construction, transportation of goods, manufacture of plastics, and about a billion things I can't think of which oil is good for (including building a strategic reserve against the prospect of a war?).

While serving their own needs in this way, they reap the added benefits of 1. increasing the costs of America's current drive to fill the strategic reserve. 2. increasing the cost of transportation and commerce in America, contributing slightly to the lack of recovery in America's economy. 3. decreasing America's share of oil imports and thereby contributing to the switch from dollars to euros in oil pricing, which would weaken the dollar and do further damage to America's economic power.
Although I no longer own a copy of The Art of War, it basically says that good captured from the enemy are 3-5 times more valuable than your own goods. The fact that China needs oil makes buying oil good for them. The fact that American needs it too makes buying great for them.

WOW how does this work?

The US wander around the ME creating all sorts of instability and incertainty out there and yet we're here discussing what China is up to?!

Part of it might be their lack of confidence in our current economy.


Is a USA Economic Collapse Due in 2005?


..."Yet China and Japan, fearing the dollar crisis, have recently begun heavy buying of commodities, from oil to iron ore to copper to gold. They are using their trade dollars to buy real commodities, instead of US Treasury debt, which is mere paper. Chinese panic buying of oil for stockpiling reserves is a major factor pushing oil prices again to record levels of $42 barrels despite two major OPEC quota rises. Steel prices have exploded due to China demand."

globalresearch.ca...

I always start to worry about China when I think of Taiwan. Now, they are building up strategic reserves...Hmmm...And Taiwan is starting to get independent minded....and the US is stuck in the middle east...

China invading Taiwan is about the worst thing I can think of for the world right now...worse than middle eastern terrorism...worse than the islamic bomb...certainly worse than global warming, lol...

But, I think it may happen in the next 10 years...

Exellent, you are wise. Your point on the Euro and gold witch the Euro is based on, is paramount. Putins JapChina Pipe line is also a factor of futures. When a WMD is in play the U.S. is screwed. We are at war because of all of these things. We have lost global monitary control through the dollar. It is as fragile as Slim Pickens ride on Strangelove. The bets have already been hedged with NAFTA and GATT coupled with deregulation. Tax payers will pay for the New Rising Sun. Our 7 trillion dollar debt has insured it. Only world war can even out the mines Bankers layed through Bonehead leaders.

Originally posted by The Vagabond
Although I no longer own a copy of The Art of War, it basically says that good captured from the enemy are 3-5 times more valuable than your own goods. The fact that China needs oil makes buying oil good for them. The fact that American needs it too makes buying great for them.

Vagabond,

You have made a really good anylisis of the situation. I do see one flaw in the resoning that the Chinese is benifiting from hurting our economy:

We are the bigget consumer of thier goods. If our economy goes to hell theirs will eventually follow as well.

I don't think we can really put the blame on China for these prices.
They only import about 2.5 million barrels per day vs. the US imports of about 10.5 million per day.

The biggest causes of the rise in Oil prices have to do with the instability in Iraq, esecially the attacks on pipelines, the Yukos incident in Russia and the upcoming recall vote in Venezuela which will happen on Sunday.

We live in a global economy that is dependant/addicted to oil. Demand is rising and the supply is finite. We have to make/discover new energy base(s) for our global economy or we are headed for a brick wall at an accelerating speed.

China's growing demand, our Invasion of Iraq, Russia's YUKO troubles, Venezuela's political turmoil, should be sending us BIG CLEAR messages. If we don't start weaning ourselves from oil dependance we may be facing a FATAL cold turkey withdrawal.
.

Originally posted by FredT
We are the bigget consumer of thier goods. If our economy goes to hell theirs will eventually follow as well.

Here is the $64,000 question: Are they willing to risk it, or are they already defeated?

I, for one, do not wish to underestimate the Chinese desire for self-determination. The hook is set deep. But is it set deep enough?

Time will tell.

Originally posted by FredT
We are the bigget consumer of thier goods. If our economy goes to hell theirs will eventually follow as well.

The US buys about 22% of their goods.
If the US economy fails, they will be hit hard but should survive.

www.governor.wa.gov...
"Export partners: US 22.5%, Hong Kong 18%, Japan 14.9%, South Korea 4.8%, Germany 3.5%, Netherlands 2.8%, UK 2.5%, Singapore 2.1% (2002)"

Even though things may look bleak, I can see light ahead, it's either an illusion or it may be real. That light is national evolution. If America can keep itself together long enough to get addicted to hydrogen and nuclear power, surviving this 'oil crisis' will be trivial. If it is an illusion (hydrogen from fossel fuels, unwillingness to persue nuclear (not bombs) power) then dark times are ahead.
I for one believe that perhaps the atom can be our saviour once again!

The oil price is due to the instability caused by the war on Iraq. China has nothing to do with the oil price, or at least the it should affect it slightly.
I am amazed by the level of deception going on. These threads a politically motivated.

It's like a kingdom, you need to keep people ignorant to rule!

I agree that the oil prices are nothing to do with China and that China is not deliberatley trying to harm the US economy.

They are expanding at a fast speed, I believe that they are also putting a heavy demand on the concrete and steel industries too. In other words, contruction industries are expanding fast.

[edit on 14-8-2004 by Kriz_4]

I personally don't think China is trying to harm the US economy because they know like the rest of us that the US is the key to global economic prosperity. In china's case for instance, if the US economy collapses it gets hit hard because of that 22% share of its exports go to the US, but China's other customers such as EU, Asia, Australia and pretty much the rest of the world will be hit damn hard by the economic collapse which will collapse their economies so China wouldn't be able to sell it's goods and it would go under like the rest of us.

It's in ALL of our interests to prop the US economy up even if they do owe the rest of us trillions. Thats why we are all prepared to be lax and look the other way on US foreign debt because if we were to ask for it all back and the US can't pay up we are all screwed .