How the demise of a trusted adviser could bring down Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

How the demise of a trusted adviser could bring down Mahmoud Ahmadinejad

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Iran's irascible, unpredictable but devout president, may be forced to resign in the coming weeks as a political crisis far greater than the massive street violence which followed his re-election in 2009 threatens to overwhelm him and his court favourites in the government.


The overweening influence of his close friend and confidant Esfandiar Rahim-Mashaee, the president's chief of staff – who is blamed for the firing of two intelligence ministers and for infuriating even the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Sayed Ali Khamenei – is expected to bring down Ahmadinejad in one of the most spectacular putsches in the history of the Islamic Republic.

Iranian politicians are already speculating on who will succeed the president – Ali Akbar Salehi, the foreign minister and for four years the head of Iran's atomic agency, is a favourite – as three of Rahim-Mashaee's close allies have been purged in just three days over the past week, arrested by security agencies while Ahmadinejad has remained uncharacteristically silent. Mohamed Sharif Malekzadeh, who served briefly as Ahmadinejad's foreign minister; Ali Asghar Parhizkar, director of the Arvand free trade zone in the south of Iran; and his opposite number in the Aras trade zone in the north, Ali-Reza Moqimi, have all been charged with corruption, a dangerous accusation in the Islamic Republic where a fine line separates "corruption on earth" from "an enemy of God".

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This has been building for a while now. I am curious how long its going to take before President Ahmadinejad is either removed from office by the Ayatollah, or arreted for his ties to his advisors who were arrested.

The timing is intresting. Iran just announced they are doing long range missile testing, including their new variant with the range to hit Israel and Us bases in the Gulf. They also announced they have underground missile silos.

Then Iran states they will be watching the BBC2 documentry on Islam / Mohammed.

Taken seperately, its ho hum. When you put it all together, its almost as if Ahmadinejad trying to provoke a response from the outside world. Maybe an attempt to seize control of the Government? There were reports that he does have influnce over the Revolutonary Gurad units, since he came form that sector.

There has also been speculation about his choices for government positions. Outsiders have noticed the people being put into sensitive areas / ministries are loyal to Ahminiedejad and not the Ayatollah.

Either way.. Its intresting to see this type of issue unfold in Iran.

reply to post by Xcathdra


It seems as his core support from the Basij, will not stand up against the political in-fighting of the government. The interesting question is who will replace the hard-liner Ahmadinejad? Will his replacement be more moderate or even more conservative? If he is more moderate of nature, maybe we will be able to see a de-escalation of constantly escalating foreign policy of Iran. the U.S should seize the initiative, and also de-escalate their foreign policy in regards to Iran if this is the case. Remember both sides are to blame.

reply to post by SpeachM1litant


The article talks about potential replacement, but I do not have any background on them so im not sure what direction their policies would move Iran in.

As far as the US trying to seize an opprotunity, I think in this instance we need to just be quiet. Any overatures from us at this point could be seen as being disengenous at best, and a direct involvement in the internal affairs of Iran at worst.

I think the US needs to jsut sit qietly and monitor to see what happens. If a new Government comes from it, then we should make overatures to see if we can find common ground and start to remove some of the distrust we have for each other, and then move foirward.

babysteps.. In reference to relations with Iran, we need to learn how toc rawl with them again before we both walk and then run with each other. It will take time to get over the mistrust...

Either way, I find this situation fascinating. So far, I have been surprised by the IRanian Governments actions and reaction to the internal squabble.

And he just drew a line in the sand.

Mahmoud Ahmadinejad warns opponents against detaining ministers

Iran's embattled president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has warned his opponents against detaining any members of his cabinet in his first public reaction to the recent arrests of his close allies.

Speaking to reporters after a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, the president said the arrests were politically motivated, and vowed to defend his government. Ahmadinejad's inner circle has been reduced to a handful of people after a rift emerged between him and Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

"I will hold myself responsible to defend the cabinet ... the cabinet is a red line and if they want to touch the cabinet, then defending it is my duty," Ahmadinejad was quoted by Iran's Irna state news agency as saying.

"From our point of view, these moves are political and it's clear to us that they are aimed at putting pressure on the government," he added.

Ahmadinejad's remarks come a week after three of his close allies, Muhammad Sharif Malekzadeh, a former deputy foreign minister, Alireza Moghimi, a senior director and Afshin Ronaghi, a deputy minister of industries and mines, were arrested.

reply to post by Xcathdra


I am not suggesting that the US should intervene in internal Iranian politics. I am saying that if Ahmedinejad is replaced by a moderate, the US should seize the chance to cool down, or warm (which ever metaphor you prefer) relations with Iran.