Experts say an earthquake surely will devastate the Northwest

Experts say an earthquake surely will devastate the Northwest, US

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Converging plates.

Experts armed with seabed core samples and findings from Japan are ready to place odds on the likelihood of a giant earthquake rocking the Northwest.

Within the next 50 years, they say, Washington and northern Oregon face a 10 to 15 percent probability of an offshore quake powerful enough to kill thousands and launch a tsunami that would level coastal cities. Off southern Oregon, the probability of an 8-or-higher magnitude earthquake is greater -- 37 percent, according to Oregon State University's Chris Goldfinger, one of the world's top experts on subduction-zone quakes.
OregonLive

The concept is not a new one...older data:

All these methods give similar results: the Cascadia margin currently rises by one to four millimeters a year, and it also contracts horizontally by several centimeters every year. This deformation--direct evidence that the crust is being squeezed between converging plates--registers the slow but relentless accumulation of strain that is building toward the next catastrophic release.
Giant EQs of the Pac NW

*image above from site.

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Another image of how the Juan De Fuca Plate is sliding beneath the North American Plate.
*from pnsn

HOW BIG ARE CASCADIA SUBDUCTION ZONE QUAKES?
Great Subduction Zone earthquakes are the largest earthquakes in the world, and can exceed magnitude 9.0. Earthquake size is porportional to fault area, and the Cascadia Subduction Zone is a very long sloping fault that stretches from mid-Vancouver Island to Northern California. It separates the Juan de Fuca and North America plates. Because of the very large fault area, the Cascadia Subduction Zone could produce a very large earthquake, magnitude 9.0 or greater, if rupture occurred over its whole area.
pnsn.org

The last known Pac NW great earthquake: January, 1700...just over 300 years ago.

This quake, with magnitude estimated at 9.0, rocked the region with strong shaking for several long minutes minutes while coastal Washington plummeted as much as 1.5 meters relative to coastal waters.
pnsn.org

We're all aware of California earthquake potential as well as Alaska. The 'middle area' of the west coast is often not talked about unless mentioning volcanic activity, in the media at least, or to people not from the area. Residents of Seattle/Tacoma, for example, grew up with EQ drills and are aware of tsunami evacuation routes.

Also experienced, even this year, small quakes that were barely felt around the Puget Sound area. Seattle has a faultline. A while back I observed information on the PacNW EQ risk, beyond what I've been told about. Just recent June 23rd, Aleutian Islands, Alaska had quakes of 7.+.

I am sharing this, as some may not have be aware of the potential activity. While I don't believe one should go into panic mode, also good to know what you may be up against. In the mean time I am gathering more recent data...

Sure, the MSM will pick up more versions of the research, possibly sensationalizing as the title shows. (older MSM report here)
Is it possible? Is it due? Sure. Tomorrow, not likely.


ATS Threads:
Putting It All Together: www.abovetopsecret.com...
Presenting great info!

A 10% probability over the next 50 years? It wouldn't convince me to move.

Interesting, though. That's not an area you think of when you think of earthquakes.

Just like Japan it sounds like, tsunami could cause more damage than the actual quake.

Originally posted by Schkeptick
A 10% probability over the next 50 years? It wouldn't convince me to move.

Interesting, though. That's not an area you think of when you think of earthquakes.

Don't move then, but I suggest you purchase a flotation device or party barge.

Actually, I'll throw in some whiskey, an igloo, and a fishing pole, if you go with the latter.

reply to post by Americanist


Thank you for this OP. You have explained things well and used solid resources. We have known about this possibility for many years now, but that doesn't make it any less real. The interesting, and somewhat sad, part that I noticed is that very few people paid attention to this real threat to our safety, but hundreds flock to posts based on speculations or somebody's dreamed disaster. You should be commended for you work on this post.

Just 15% probability, within the next 50 years?
That's like when it's said that a huge geological event will happen soon and it turns out that in nature terms, soon means at least 100,000 years.
Bad news for the generation after next though, I'll admit.

Originally posted by Schkeptick
A 10% probability over the next 50 years? It wouldn't convince me to move.

Interesting, though. That's not an area you think of when you think of earthquakes.

you might not but anyone that lives in that area does........earthquakes are quite common around there.......

They are talking about the zone of the coast of Washington. What they fail to mention is that hardly anyone lives on the coast there. Now if a 9 hit Seattle, it would be toast.