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At that time, a sharply divided panel believed solar minimum would come in March 2008 followed by either a strong solar maximum in 2011 or a weak solar maximum in 2012. Competing models gave different answers, and researchers were eager for the sun to reveal which was correct.
"It turns out that none of our models were totally correct," says Dean Pesnell of the Goddard Space Flight Center, NASA's lead representative on the panel. "The sun is behaving in an unexpected and very interesting way."
Solar Cycle 24 will peak, they say, in May 2013 with a below-average number of sunspots. "If our prediction is correct, Solar Cycle 24 will have a peak sunspot number of 90, the lowest of any cycle since 1928 when Solar Cycle 16 peaked at 78," says panel chairman Doug Biesecker of the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center.
"Even a below-average cycle is capable of producing severe space weather," points out Biesecker. "The great geomagnetic storm of 1859, for instance, occurred during a solar cycle of about the same size we’re predicting for 2013."
Low solar activity has a profound effect on Earth’s atmosphere, allowing it to cool and contract. Space junk accumulates in Earth orbit because there is less aerodynamic drag. The becalmed solar wind whips up fewer magnetic storms around Earth's poles. Cosmic rays that are normally pushed back by solar wind instead intrude on the near-Earth environment. There are other side-effects, too, that can be studied only so long as the sun remains quiet.
Contrary to what you may think, NASA is to receive a budget increase of some six billion dollars (although much of it may be to adjust for inflation) over the next couple years, thanks to the Obama administration.
With the signing of the Launch Services Purchase Act of 1990, under George H.W. Bush NASA is required to purchase launch services for its payloads from commercial providers when such services are needed. So what does that mean? While there are a number of factors, it means that NASA saves a significant amount of money by going with commercial services. Not only that, but should commercial spaceflight alternatives be safer than any existing NASA program, then that service should be considered instead.
NASA recently signed a deal with Russia for $753 million to provide NASA with 12 round trips to the International Space Station at a cost of about $62.7 million per seat. This signals an 8.5% increase; however, statistically speaking, the Soyuz spacecraft is one of the safest spacecrafts ever created, and is safer than NASA's Space Shuttle.
Well, sadly — and I say this sadly, because I'm a big fan of going into space and I actually worked to get the shuttle program to survive at one point — NASA has become an absolute case study in why bureaucracy can't innovate.
If you take all the money we've spent at NASA since we landed on the moon and you had applied that money for incentives to the private sector, we would today probably have a permanent station on the moon, three or four permanent stations in space, a new generation of lift vehicles. And instead what we've had is bureaucracy after bureaucracy after bureaucracy, and failure after failure.
I think it's a tragedy, because younger Americans ought to have the excitement of thinking that they, too, could be part of reaching out to a new frontier.
You know, you'd asked earlier, John, about this idea of limits because we're a developed country. We're not a developed country. The scientific future is going to open up, and we're at the beginning of a whole new cycle of extraordinary opportunities. And, unfortunately, NASA is standing in the way of it, when NASA ought to be getting out of the way and encouraging the private sector.
I think the space program has played a vital role for the United States of America.
In the context of our budget challenges, it can be refocused and re-prioritized, but I don't think we should be eliminating the space program. We can partner with private providers to get more economies of scale and scale it back, but I don't think we should eliminate the space program.
I think fundamentally there are some people — and most of them are Democrats, but not all — who really believe that the government knows how to do things better than the private sector ... And they happen to be wrong.
NASA is retiring its shuttle fleet to make way for a new space exploration program aimed at sending humans to an asteroid by 2020 and to Mars in the 2030s.
Originally posted by sonofliberty1776
How about the fact that it is 1970's technology. Maybe the platforms are just too darn old and wearing out? Maybe they are too expensive to replace right now. I mean we are fighting multiple wars and giving welfare to a plethora of illegal aliens after all.
Now we all know that the "official" answer from NASA and the government regarding the shutdown of the Space Shuttle Program, is due to lack of money. But we all also know that when they want something, magically they can make money appear to fund whatever they like.
Originally posted by Heartisblack
Probably we're all gonna be sitting in the dark, the sun will wipe everything out and then Niburu comes, boom. We're all dead.
Is that what you wanted to hear ?
Originally posted by UtahRosebud
Originally posted by savageheart
I have often sat and wondered why, if they are going to discontinue the shuttles, why not send at least two up on a trajectory path to the unknown......if they are indeed no longer of service, just send them up and let them go.....
How incredible would that be to see one drift off into one area as another goes the opposite direction....I apologize for being in a rush and just posting that possibility as I could expand for days on these thoughts....perhaps I will do so later, however, just think about the possibilities of that.
Originally posted by sonofliberty1776
How about the fact that it is 1970's technology. Maybe the platforms are just too darn old and wearing out? Maybe they are too expensive to replace right now. I mean we are fighting multiple wars and giving welfare to a plethora of illegal aliens after all.
Originally posted by Heartisblack
Probably we're all gonna be sitting in the dark, the sun will wipe everything out and then Niburu comes, boom. We're all dead.
Is that what you wanted to hear ?
Originally posted by matadoor
reply to post by UtahRosebud
In my current position, I'm dealing directly with Federal and State entities. I can tell you that the decision to ground the fleet, and require NASA to use commercial services is by far the absolute best thing that can happen to space exploration.
Now, let me explain..
Do you recall the line from Armageddon where they are sitting on the pad, and one guy says "What's to worry about we are sitting on millions of components all of which are assembled by the lowest bidder". This statement is SO TRUE.
When you want to do something as a government employee, you have to buy things from one of these:
1. A "Sole Source" contract. This can only be granted when you have filed (in triplicate) all of the required paperwork, and a committee of people approve it. This takes MONTHS or YEARS to get accomplished.
2. A Request for Proposal. This process also takes months or years, and yes it goes to the lowest bidder, whomever this is.
3. A convenience contract. This depends on either an independent organization doing a RFP and then allowing other government entities to be a "rider", and another organization that adds language to THEIR contract results from a RFP, which authorize them to use this agreement. Oh, and these expire every 3 years.
So, technology literally wastes away during this process.
Instead, they are allowing independent companies the ability to innovate, and provide solutions that are up to date, and are cost effective.
I'm looking forward to seeing what they come up with.