Volcano expert says 1 in a 500 chance of super volcano eruption this century

Hay Festival 2011: Volcano expert fears we’ll see a super eruption

Volcanologist Clive Oppenheimer yesterday warned there was a one-in-500 chance of the world being hit by a super- volcano this century.

The reader in vulcanology at Cambridge University told a Hay audience: “That might not sound like much, but it is a lot more likely than an asteroid impact.

“The events in Japan remind us that you can have a tsunami and earthquake and a nuclear plant there as well and you can have these chain reaction events that are actually quite calamitous and they are not unimaginable.”

Examining geological, historical and archeological records, the expert took the audience on a journey back to three volcanic eruptions that have shaken the world – the 1815 Tambora volcano in Indonesia that killed 100,000 people, the 1783 eruption of Kaki in Iceland and the massive Toba eruption in indonesia that pumped 3,000 cubic km of magma into the atmosphere around 75,000 years ago, leaving behind a lake-filled crater in North Sumatra 100km long and 30km wide.

If such an eruption was to happen tomorrow, he said, the world would be far more vulnerable.

He said: “The world population is bigger, for one thing, and many people are living in abject poverty who are already very vulnerable.

“The effects would be huge, both to people and to the technological world.”

Ya think? If a supervolcano were to erupt in a big way, global population would probably get cut in half or more.

He added that evidence shows category-eight earthquakes can trigger volcanoes 1000km away, and that this year’s devastating earthquake off the coast of Japan would be likely to trigger a volcano elsewhere in the country.

“They are linked,” he said.

“Statistically, we could say within the next six months there is likely to be an eruption in Japan because of the events this year.

It seems it already happened... several volcanoes in Japan have erupted since March 11.

500 to 1 in 100 years..

I like those odds.

Put me down for a gorilla!!

2012, EQ in tokyo, wako tower epicenter,
Proof
alienshateu.rivspics.co.uk...

Lol no seriously

I have no proof, but its a possibility, its the only relation i can see between the Olympic logo and the wako tower collapsing.

Gotta love total fail science.

There is a slight chance that something could potentially happen. But I'll place the timespan of this prediction beyond my lifetime. That way, no matter what, i'll never have to hear about it! Genius!


Look, there is a large chance that a super volcano could erupt in the next 10 years. They aren't going to say that though, because then they have to jeopardize themselves on such a wager.

I'd be more comfortable with these odds if they weren't such a round number. 1 in 500 just sounds too contrived. If he had said something like "From careful research and a two-year analysis of available scientific and historical data, the odds of a supervolcano erupting this century are 1 in 457" then, yeah, great. But here he sounds like a London oddsmaker.

Interesting find Vitch,

The actual statistics aren't too clear however the source is credible.
One can assume that if the "chain reaction " were a plausible scenario
And if this bucket of bolts we call a planet
Were in fact an elegant complex organism called Gaia
Then all systems would complement and bootstrap each other
To achieve a new balance and harmony
But in geologic time this has happened , is happening and will happen again
As a parallel, it is interesting that the human body heats up in an attempt to kill a virus
And eventually blows from one end or the other, or both!

Vanishr'
Those illuminati cards crush people every day
Whether it's Mitchell Coombes
Or whoever is in the way
Don't wait for 2012

We have a new one with Kaki?
I presume it should have been Laki.

An Eruption will be named super eruption when it's a VEI 8 (more than 1000 km3 of magma erupted)
From the 3 mentioned only Toba produced a VEI 8 so the last known super eruption happened around 75 000 years ago.

As for those odds 1/500 this century.
We could have a super eruption tomorrow, next week, next month (ask the channeler), this century or not before another 100 000 years. None knows and I'm not going to lose any sleep over it or trust any "Scientific" declaration where the Icelandic Volcano wasn't even named properly.

Will it happen. Yes.
Will it happen in our lifetime. Doubtfull.

There's a 1-in-1 chance we'll all die this century. Most of us with our boots on.

It's not the prediction as such that annoys me, it's the manner of release. We're overdue all manner of nasty events, from space rocks to epidemics. But putting it out in this way is stupid, not helpful, and fearmongering.

Not aimed at you Vitchilo, but statistics are ALWAYS bent in one way or another :/

Woops, forgot to flag it.
Good find btw :-)

reply to post by earthbell


Lol those cards, seem to accurately depict real life events that are happening and have happened.

Im not stating thats precisely what i expect to happen, But as for Mitchell Coombes, iam yet to see any recent predictions & have only seen screenshots of his old statuses/predictions, but those were correct, providing that they werent edited in anyway after the time.

I was just relating 2012, to the olympic logo clours at the beginning, although it looks as if the people are of different races (from there clothing, skin colours etc..) Which would make you think its the olympics, all the world gathered together, But thn you see the Wako tower, its clearly the Wako tower and not Big Ben.

As i said, iam just interpreting the cards as i see correct. Others may inteprete differently.

Italian Seismologists Charged with Manslaughter

they never learn

I could make such an accurate prediciton and i'm not a vulcanoligist. I bet he was actually paid for such unvaluable research too.

I'm not an expert on earthquakes, but let me go on record that a major one could occur within the next century. If such an event comes to pass, contact me through PM and we can arrange how you can forward the funds.