These are the "Current Results", but you need to be within the link to click on each event:
"Five years after its inception, the GCP continues to develop. There are over 65 active eggs as of late 2004, in Europe, the US, Canada, India, Fiji,
New Zealand, Japan, China, Russia, Brazil, Africa, Thailand, and Australia. We hypothesize that our instruments (the "eggs") will show anomalous
deviations associated with Global Events when there is widespread participation or reaction to the event, and we can expect large-scale coherence and
resonance.
We have made 178 formal predictions based on intuitive grounds educated by accumulating experience. A "rigorous" subset excludes 13 inadequately
specified or partially redundant cases identified in an external review. The GCP Prediction Registry provides narrative descriptions of predictions
made up to mid 2003, and formal specifications, including identification of the rigorous subset, are given in the Formal Predictions list.
Statistical evaluations use a "normalized" database, with normalization based on an empirical estimate of variance for each egg, calculated from its
full database of trials. In addition we exclude all "bad data" identified by standardized rules (e.g., trial scores outside the range 55 to 145 are
almost certainly errors). The 13 excluded events are marked in the table with a red asterisk, and cases with no normalized calculation are marked with
a double asterisk. The first table below shows the composite result for all formally specified events that meet our stringent critera for rigorous
definition and analysis. At the end of the table, events for which the calculation is based on non-normalized Chisquare calculations are signified by
a c prepending the number.
In Table 2, the results for individual events are shown. Table entries for most events have direct links to more comprehensive analyses. (These use
the raw data, but in most cases, the outcome is similar to the normalized results.) The events are identified, and a column with the heading,
"Prediction Source", indicates who made the prediction. The number of contributing "REGs" is shown, and the "Resolution", which indicates the
block-size for the analysis. The last two columns show the Z-score statistic for the analysis, and its associated probability. (Technically the
calculation is a t-score, but the degrees of freedom are very large in all cases, so these are the same as Z-scores (using empirical variance) to
several decimal places.
Following Table 2 we visualize the numerical results given in Table 1. The accumulating evidence for the hypothesis is shown in a chronological graph
for the rigorous subset. In such a display the terminal value corresponds to the overall Z-score.
Table 1: Overall Summary of Results, August 1998 to July 2004
Category Prediction Number of Events Stouffer Z Probability
Rigorously Defined Events Positive Trend 165 3.973 3.548x10-5
Table 2: Results for Individual Predicted Events
red = significant; light red = predicted direction; green = opposite and significant
Event Description Prediction Source REGs Resolution Z-score Probability
1. Embassy Bombings, 980807 Nelson 3 15-min 3.211 0.001
* Omagh Bombings, 980815 Nelson 4 15-min -0.675 0.750
US Airstrikes, Afghanistan, 980820 Nelson 6 15-min 1.153 0.124
Swissair 111 crash, 980903 Nelson 5 15-min 1.344 0.089
5. McGwire, record homerun, 980908 Nelson 9 15-min 0.948 0.172
Clinton Affair Grand Jury, 980911 Nelson 6 15-min 0.002 0.499
Nicaragua, Casitas collapse, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min -1.083 0.861
Nicaragua, Casitas flooding, 981030 Nelson 5 15-min 1.212 0.113
Global Peace Vigil, Twyman, 981113 Nelson 5 15-min 1.219 0.111
10. * Iraq, 11th hour decision, 981126? Nelson 4 15-min -0.410 0.659
World Peace Prayer, 981210 Nelson 7 15-min -0.133 0.553
Iraq, Bombing, 981217 Nelson 7 15-min -0.534 0.703
House votes impeachment, 981219 Nelson 7 15-min -0.930 0.824
Christmas Eve, UTC, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -1.018 0.846
15. Christmas Eve, EST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.076 0.530
Christmas Eve, PST, 981224 Etzold 8 15-min -0.706 0.760
New Years, 24 hrs, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec -0.170 0.567
* New Years, Times Square, 981231 Nelson 9 1-sec 0.872 0.192
** New Years, Euro vs US, 981231 Bierman 9 1-sec 0.845 0.199
20. ** New Years, Maxi vs Mini, 981231 Broughton 9 1-sec (Diff) 1.165 0.122
Columbia, Armenia Quake, 990125 Nelson 9 15-min 0.826 0.204
Senate acquits Clinton, 990212 Nelson 10 15-min 0.210 0.417
Nato Bombs Yugoslavia, 990324 Nelson 12 15-min 1.693 0.045
Dow Closes Over 10000, 990329 Cohen, Nelson 12 15-min 0.372 0.355
25. Praying for Peace, 990403 to 0503 Taylor Var 1-min 0.821 0.206
Littleton School Tragedy, 990420 Polk 11 15-min -0.838 0.799
Autonomy, Israel, PLO, 990505 Kraak 17 15-min -0.064 0.526
"Peace at Last", Headlines, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 0.504 0.307
Yugo War Ends, Milosevic, 990610 Nelson 17 15-min 1.305 0.096
30. * JFK Jr Crash, 30-min, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min 0.277 0.391
JFK Jr Crash, 3 Hours, 990717 Nelson 21 15-min -0.357 0.639
India, Train Crash, 990801 Nelson 17 15-min 1.818 0.035
* Solar Eclipse, 990811 Nelson 20 15-min -0.010 0.504
* Turkey, Earthquake, 30-min, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.679 0.751
35. Turkey, Earthquake, 4 Hours, 990817 Nelson 20 15-min -0.156 0.562
Japan, Nuclear Accident, 990930 Nelson 21 15-min 1.094 0.137
Billion Person Meditation, 991025 Nelson 21 10-min 2.247 0.012
* Typhoon, India, 2 Hours, 991029 Nelson 22 15-min -0.583 0.720
Typhoon, India, 24 Hours, 991029-30 Nelson 23 15-min -0.049 0.520
40. Earthquake, Turkey II, 2 Hrs �, 991112 Dunne 21 15-min 0.078 0.469
Full Moon, Solstice, 4.8 Min, 991222 Fournier 25 1-sec, epoch -0.998 0.841
New Year, Y2K, 24 hrs, 19991231 Nelson 28 1-sec, epoch -0.406 0.658
New Year, Y2K, Variance, 19991231 Radin 27 1-sec, epoch 0.158 0.437
** Hi vs Low Populations, Y2K, 991231 Nelson 27 1-sec (diffs) -0.647 0.741
45. Just A Minute, 1 Min Epoch, 20000101 Srinivasan 27 1-sec, epoch 0.697 0.243
Papal Visit, Israel, 20000321-26 Reinhilde 27-29 1-min 2.428 0.008
Great Experiment II, 20000423 Nelson 26 1-sec -0.230 0.591
World Earth Healing Day, 20000504 Nelson 26-27 1-sec -0.302 0.619
Concorde Crash, Paris, 20000725 Reinhilde 23 1-sec 1.053 0.146
50. Kursk Tragedy, 30-min, 20000812 Nelson 27 1-sec 1.625 0.052
Kursk, 10 days, 20000812-21 Nelson 24-27 1-min 1.333 0.091
US TV: Survivors Finale, 20000823 Lettieri 26 1-sec -0.472 0.682
Peace Summit Relig Spirit, 20000828-31 Murali Dhar 26 1-min -0.446 0.672
Olympic Opening Ceremony, 20000915 Robin Taylor 25 1-sec 0.021 0.492
55. Group Mind Meditation, 20000924 Nelson 26 1-sec 1.720 0.043
Pierre Trudeau Funeral, 20001003 Chino Srinivasan 29 1-sec 1.981 0.024
Group Mind Meditation 2, 20001022 Matthew Webb 28 1-sec -2.084 0.981
US Election 2000, 20001107, 8, 9 ... Paul Bethke 30-32 1-sec 0.159 0.437
Group Mind Meditation 3, 20001112 Matthew Webb 30 1-sec 0.027 0.489
60. Group Mind Meditation 4, 20001126 Matthew Webb 29 1-sec -0.028 0.511
Miss World 2000, 20001130 Mukesh Garg 31 1-sec 1.242 0.107
US Election 2000, 20001208 Bethke, Nelson 27 1-sec 0.438 0.331
US Election 2000, Finality, 20001212 Nelson, Bethke 30 1-sec 0.934 0.175
New Year 2000-2001 Mean, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -1.776 0.962
65. New Year 2000-2001 Var, 20010101 Nelson 34-35 1-sec -0.710 0.761
** Lovewave 010101, 20010101 Nelson, Lettieri 34-35 1-sec 2.688 0.004
Central America Quake, 20010113 Nelson 35 1-sec 1.620 0.053
Bush Inauguration, 20010120 Nelson 32 1-sec -0.550 0.709
Kumbh Mala, India, 20010124 Panchal, Srinivasan 35 1-sec 1.458 0.072
70. Western India Quake, 20010126 Nelson 33 1-sec -1.028 0.848
WorldPuja Webcast, 20010331 Joanne Karl, Nelson 36 1-sec 0.776 0.219
Johrei Ceremonies, 20010401 Nelson, Ammar 36 1-sec, epoch 1.161 0.123
Earth Day, 2001, 20010422 Nelson 32 1-sec 1.875 0.030
Full Moon in Taurus, 20010507 Don Watson 28 1-sec 0.798 0.212
75. World Peace Meditation, 20010520 Masami Kondo 34 1-sec 1.068 0.143
World Earth Healing Day, 20010621 Leigh Tremaine 31 1-sec -0.653 0.743
Roll Your Own Blackout, 20010621 Greg, Elissa, Roger 31 1-sec -0.666 0.747
Beijing Gets 2008 Olympics, 20010713 Peter Bancel 31 1-sec 0.496 0.310
Buddhist Stupa Ceremony, 20010809-17 Peter Bancel 34-37 1-min -0.602 0.726
80. Terrorist Disaster, Sept 11, 20010911 Nelson 37 1-sec 1.872 0.031
** Terror, Variance, Sept 11, 20010911 Dean Radin, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.305 0.096
Silent Prayer, Sept 14, 20010914 Doug Mast 35 1-sec 1.087 0.139
Sea to Shining Sea, 20010922 Paul Bethke 37 1-sec 1.712 0.043
MUM Peace Meditation, 20010923-27 Orme-Johnson 37 1-sec 0.340 0.367
85. Begin Afghan Bombing, 20011007 Nelson 37 1-sec 0.684 0.247
Children Pledge Allegiance, 20011012 William Braud 34 1-sec 0.568 0.285
Binding Spell on Bin Laden, 20011015 Greg Nelson 35 1-sec 0.616 0.269
Assassination in Israel, 20011017 Joseph Menahem 37 1-sec 1.573 0.058
World Series, Yankee Stadium, 20011031 Lettieri, Nelson 35 1-sec 0.266 0.395
90. World-Wide Meditation, 20011111 Wolf, Watson 38 1-sec 1.479 0.070
Crash of AA 587, 20011112 Nick Reiter, Nelson 39 1-sec -1.124 0.870
Ramadan Muslim Prayer, 20011116 Pasternak, Nelson 37 1-sec 1.836 0.033
WorldPuja Meditation, 20011116 Ferguson, Nelson 37 1-sec -0.802 0.789
George Harrison Tribute, 20011203 Watson, Nelson 42 1-sec 0.235 0.407
95. Sir Peter Blake Murdered, 20011206 Peter French 42 1-sec -1.080 0.860
Astrological Moments, 20011209-14 Anonymous, Nelson 42-43 1-sec 2.206 0.014
New Year 2001-2002, Mean, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 1.395 0.081
New Year 2002, Var, 20020101 Nelson 44 1-sec 0.643 0.260
Volcanic Eruption, Congo, 20020117 Ouko, Nelson 46 1-sec -0.110 0.544
100. Astrid Lindgren Dies, 20020128 Suurk�la, Nelson 46 1-sec 0.689 0.245
Winter Olympic Opening, 20020209 Nelson 46 1-sec 1.105 0.135
Sri Lanka Peace Meditation, 20020315 Johnson-Lenz 47 1-sec 0.032 0.487
Earthquake, Afghanistan, 20020325 Nelson 45 1-sec -0.764 0.778
Passover Bombing, 20020327 Roger Nelson 47 1-sec 0.139 0.445
105. Jenin Incursion, Israel, 20020403 Hala Azzam, Nelson 47 1-sec 0.179 0.429
Tiger Woods Triumph, 20020414 Ray Anderson 46 1-sec -0.343 0.634
Indigo Peace Meditation, 20020420 Don Watson 44 1-sec -1.149 0.875
Erfurth School Shooting, 20020426 Roger Nelson 48 1-sec 0.160 0.436
World Cup Soccer, 20020607 Tobias Bodine 48 1-sec -0.055 0.522
110. Astrological Moments II, 20020620-23 Anonymous, Nelson 47-45 1-sec 1.524 0.064
Summer Solstice 2002, 20020621 Joe Giove 45 1-sec -0.263 0.604
World Cup Soccer, 20020630 Pedro de Oliveira 45 1-sec 0.044 0.482
World Healing Day, 20020822 Tremaine, Giove 50 1-sec 0.651 0.258
911 Anniversary, March Pred, 20020911 Eckhard Etzold 50 1-sec 1.208 0.114
115. 911 Anniversary, Mean, 20020911 Mitchell, Nelson 50 1-sec -1.468 0.929
** 911 Anniversary, Var, 20020911 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.313 0.623
Korea's Birthday, 20021003 Martin Bucholtz 51 1-sec -2.118 0.983
Bali Bombing, 20021012 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.237 0.594
Tyman in Baghdad, 20021012 Multiple Sources 50 1-sec -0.467 0.680
120. EarthDance 2002, 20021012 Petr Douza 50 1-sec -0.017 0.507
Wellstone Crash, 20021025 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.397 0.346
Chechen Hostage Crisis, 20021026 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.288 0.387
Kenyan Terrorist Attacks, 20021128 Pasternak 52 1-sec -1.003 0.842
Suicide Bombing, Grozny, 20021227 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.051 0.520
125. New Year, 2003, Mean , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -1.673 0.953
New Year, 2003, Var , 20030101 Roger Nelson 54 1-sec -0.343 0.634
Tel Aviv Bombing, 20030105 Gadi Guy 52 1-sec 0.012 0.495
Antiwar Protests, 20030118 Ashley Young 50 1-sec 0.719 0.236
Columbia Shuttle Disaster, 20030201 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -1.054 0.854
130. Peace Meditations, 20030209 Various, Nelson 48 1-sec -0.007 0.503
Global Peace Demonstrations, 20030215 Nelson 48 1-sec 1.879 0.030
Korean Subway Fire, 20030218 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.374 0.354
Lysistrata and Women, 20030303 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.562 0.941
Gather The Women, 20030308 Carol Hansen Grey 50 1-sec -0.333 0.630
135. Serbian Assassination, 20030312 Nelson 50 1-sec -0.699 0.758
Candlelight Vigil, 20030316 Various & Nelson 51 1-sec 1.915 0.028
War in Iraq, 20030320 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.745 0.772
GE Prayer for Bush, 20030401 Nelson 51 1-sec -0.010 0.504
Saddam Falls, War Ends, 20030409 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.146 0.126
140. Bombing in Riyadh, 20030512 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.459 0.323
Bombing in Morroco, 20030516 Nelson 50 1-sec 1.611 0.054
Earthquake in Algeria, 20030521 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.546 0.293
Aqaba Summit, Middle East, 20030604 Nelson 54 1-sec 1.318 0.094
Rainbow 4th of July, 20030704 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.009 0.496
145. Love, Peace, Water, 20030725 Nelson 49 1-sec 0.086 0.466
Manila Coup Attempt, 20030727 Beth Macdonald 51 1-sec 0.618 0.268
Blackout 2003, 20030814 Nelson 48 1-sec -0.953 0.830
Baghdad, UN Bombing, 20030819 Nelson 45 1-sec 0.106 0.458
Mars Close Approach, 20030827 Adrian Patrut 49-50 1-sec 0.647 0.259
150. World Healing 2003, 20030910 Various 55 1-sec -1.217 0.888
911 Anniversary, 20030911 Nelson 55 1-sec -0.276 0.609
Typhoon in Korea, 20030912 Nelson 55 1-sec 0.539 0.295
Dalai Lama in NYC, 20030921 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.543 0.294
Harmonic Concordance, 20031109 Mirehiel 52 1-sec 0.474 0.318
155. Turkish Synagogue Bomb, 20031115 Various 53 1-sec 1.709 0.044
Turkish Bank & Consulate, 20031120 Various 52 1-sec -0.199 0.579
Russian Bombing, 20031205 Nelson 50 1-sec -1.398 0.919
Saddam Hussein Captured, 20031213 Nelson 51 1-sec 0.434 0.332
Opra Winfrey in Africa, 20031218 Nelson 52 1-sec 0.672 0.251
160. Earthquake in Bam, Iran, 20031226 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.917 0.180
60 Seconds for Peace, 20031227 Craig Hamilton 54 1-sec 0.853 0.197
New Year, 2004, Mean, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec 0.122 0.451
New Year, 2004, Var, 20040101 Nelson 54 1-sec -0.579 0.719
Hadj Ritual Tragedy, 20040201 Nelson 53 1-sec 0.796 0.213
165. Iran Train Explosion, 20040218 Nelson 52 1-sec 1.380 0.084
Oscar Ceremonies, 20040229 Nelson 57 1-sec 0.002 0.499
Attacks on Shiites, 20040302 Nelson 59 1-sec 0.348 0.364
Terror Attacks in Madrid, 20040311 Nelson, Lassen, Bierman 59 1-sec -1.965 0.975
Demonstrations in Spain, 20040312 Nelson, Lassen 59 1-sec 1.631 0.051
170. Global Day of Peace, 20040320 Carl Haag, Nelson 57 1-sec -0.946 0.828
Cricket, India vs Pakistan, 20040324 Srinivasan, Nelson 60 1-sec 1.600 0.055
Rantisi Assassiation, 20040417 Nelson 62 1-sec -0.132 0.553
c173. Korean Train Explosion, 20040422 Don Watson 60 1-sec 0.872 0.192
c174. Floods in Haiti, 20040524 Nelson 65 1-sec 0.182 0.428
c175. Iraq Insurgent Bombs, 20040624 Nelson 63 1-sec 1.017 0.155
c176. Train Crash, Turkey, 20040722 Don Watson 64 1-sec -0.657 0.745
c177. Democratic Conv, Kerry, 20040729 Nelson 63 1-sec 2.057 0.020
c178. Fire in Paraguay, 20040801 Nelson 64 1-sec 0.278 0.391"