New Report Shows the 21 Countries Most Likely to Default On Their Debt

Another interesting perspective on the current global financial situation and a short explanation of how the countries were ranked here:

May 23, 2011, 9:13 AM
We've ranked the top 21 countries by today's intraday CDS price, or the cost to insure each country's debt. It isn't a perfect ranking of what country is likely to default first, or when, but does show a growing consensus from market participants that the crises in these states is getting worse.

Starting with number 21 - Russia:

#21 Russia

Current 5-year CDS Price (bps): 136.83
Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 135.37
Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.
Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

and number one, not surprisingly is - Greece

#1 Greece

Current 5-year Mid CDS (bps): 1393.33
Friday 5-year CDS Price (bps): 1334.83
Note: A 5-year CDS price of 1000 bps suggests it costs $1 million to insure $10 million of debt.
Source: Bloomberg (current), CMA Datavision (Friday)

To see the rankings of the rest of the 19 countries go here:
www.businessinsider.com...

reply to post by manta78


I knew Greece be #1! Good find ty

Israel at 19, interesting indeed

I find it odd that they did twenty one countries, instead of twenty. It seems to me they only included the oddly numbered twenty one because it was Russia. Curious to see where the US is in relation to the oddly numbered twenty one. If it was twenty two, would there be bias because they included twenty one, but not twenty two?

I find it odd that venezuela be number two considering there vast oil deposits. I remember reading that they were kicking out big oil companies that wouldn't renegotiate what they were paid. I guess all that social spending for food and other subsidies is taking there toll.

Israel will only go down if its puppet the USA goes down.

This happens and if they each have a central bank connected to the Rothchilds banking cartel means that they are about to kick these fools to the curb in one masssive, targeted global swoop. One nation defaults they can use the others to leverage that nation but if many default in a short time span that is way more destructive to the overall group and is considerably further reaching.

Besides, let these privately ran and owned banks fall and that will return the power back to those nations to set their own monetary policies, agendas and will allow each to once again control and tender their own currency.

This is all apart of a multipronged attack against TPTB. Hit them where they are most vulnerable. Hit them enough and wide enough whereas they collapse under their own debt. Every nation that defaults will take about 20 yrs to bounce back and gives each considerably more leverage against these douchewads then ever before.

Cut the purse strings and half of the work in our global revolution is already done for us. It's one big mindgame and one big game of chicken. To see who blinks first. This is all apart of the endgame scenario. To destroy these groups without the need to fire one shot.

As I've said in previous posts the end of them is imminent. This is a major part of it.

Um who made this artical? where is USA on the list or England? This artical is based off there 1,5,10,30 year Notes and the USA prints money to pay for its notes so thats why we are not on the list

I was surprised at #2 Venezula. I would have thought with all the petro dollars they would be in decent shape even with all the Chavez crazy spending.

reply to post by camaro68ss


The USA and the UK are not on the list because they are not in the top 21 countries most likely to default on their debt (countries shown in detail in the article in the OP) based upon the CDS (bps) rate. Here's one article from January of this year showing the U. S. rate at 49.9:

blog.creditlime.com...

Keep in mind the lowest rate out of the 21 countries listed was 136.83, for Russia at # 21, as of last Friday.

Only market experts, or someone with access to these reports in more detail could give you an accurate assessment of U.S. or U.K. rankings given the standard of measurement listed.

Greece is getting close. I cant see the re-structure pulling through, their banks have zero liquidity.

Please see WSJ article.

Greece default

reply to post by DannyboyUK


Thanks for that link.
More on the Greece situation here:

John Mauldin: If Greece Defaults, It Will Not Be Contained
May 24, 2011, 4:21 PM


As for the mechanism for that contagion, Mauldin lays out the following scenario in the event of a Greek default:

Greece has to nationalize its banks.

Greek citizens are forced to take deposits in drachmas, rather than euros.

Greek consumers and businesses then default on all debts because of the resulting haircut, which he estimates at 50%.

French and German banks are forced to take write-downs on their Greek exposure.

The ECB is forced to take a write-down on its exposure to Greek debt.

businessinsider.com...

reply to post by manta78


What worries me more than a country defaulting. .. is the CDS fiasco that would ensue if, say, Greece were to default. Greece defaulting won't end the World. The derivative fallout will.

Proof that we learned absolutely nothing from the past few years.

Or...

Proof that we did, we just don't give a @!$ anymore.