Geophysicist predicts new “Little Ice Age” by 2050

Geophysicist predicts new “Little Ice Age” by 2050

Swedish geophysicist Nils-Axel Mörner, in a new peer-reviewed paper, predicts that by the year 2050, we will be experiencing a cold period similar to the “Little Ice Age” that enveloped the world between about 1550 AD and 1850 AD. During that time, global temperatures were up to 2 degrees F colder than now and that chill had a significant effect on food production.

The paper’s abstract reads:

[At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “Little Ice Age” over the Arctic and NW Europe. The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth’s rate of rotation. This affected the surface currents and southward penetration of Arctic water in the North Atlantic causing “Little Ice Ages” over northwestern Europe and the Arctic.]

Well here is the latest Gloom and Doom. If we don't destroy ourselves or the world doesn't come to an end on 2012 we will supposedly be heading for a possible mini-Ice-Age. I dunno the Earth has gone through so many changes in it's history.

IMO, There isn't much we could do anyway when and if major changes occur.
Just buckle your seat belts and hang on.

Ice core samples from the arctic have shown the cycles of earths past history. To me cycles shown in the arctic ice cores is more proof then I've seen anywhere ells of earths passed and earths future. We need to get into space and colonize it for the safety of all mankind. Trust me space exploration would serve mankind much better then war is. Good thread OP thanks star and flag.

Who the hell knows anymore ?! I mean come on, I can google how many geologists have said that. Doom always gets closer, 2012 seems like a psyop try to love while we can, cheers to life dude

Besides as for ice ages, I live in IL it gets warm around June/July. All we'll need are thicker coats, cheers.

Originally posted by SLAYER69

[At around 2040-2050 we will be in a new major Solar Minimum. It is to be expected that we will then have a new “The past Solar Minima were linked to a general speeding-up of the Earth’s rate of rotation.

I don't have any reason to doubt that there will be "little ice ages" in the future like there have been in the past. So in general I really wouldn't have a problem with such a claim.

What I do have a big problem with, is the claim that the Earth's rotation speeded up. The only thing I know of that could speed up the Earth's rotation to any significant degree is a large impact. In fact it's thought the mars size proto-planet that struck the Earth and formed the moon may have been what gave Earth its initial spin, and that spin rate has been gradually slowing down ever since (due to things like friction, tidal forces, etc.) as far as I know. I've never seen any credible evidence of this speeding up of the Earth's rotation he mentions, so if someone want's to enlighten me about that, please do so. (The only reference in the paper is another paper by the same author that costs $39.95). Otherwise, I call BS on the Earth's rotation speeding up.

I noticed the one comment says "This is absolute garbage". Based on the speeding up of the Earth's rotation claim, I have to agree with that comment.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


Is the paper you cite(or want to read) below?

Global and Planetary Change
Volume 72, Issue 4, July 2010, Pages 282-293
Quaternary and Global Change: Review and Issues Special issue in memory of Hugues FAURE

Solar Minima, Earth's rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future: The North Atlantic–European case

Nils-Axel Mörner
Paleogeophysics & Geodynamics, Stockholm, Sweden.

dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.01.004

Originally posted by jjjtir
Solar Minima, Earth's rotation and Little Ice Ages in the past and in the future: The North Atlantic–European case

Yes, that one.

I'm particularly interested in seeing how large he thinks the rotation speed changes have been, and what evidence he's using to support his claim. If he said the length of a day changed from 23 hours, 56 minutes, and 4.1 seconds, to 23 hours, 56 minutes, and 3.9 seconds, I could believe that, though it seems like only an effect rather than a cause to me. I don't think anyone would even notice 2 tenths of a second change in the length of a day, except for scientists with very precise measuring instruments.

reply to post by Arbitrageur


fulltext in pdf.

jjjtir.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/solar-minima-earths-rotation-and-little-ice-ages-in-the-past-and-in-the-future.pdf

(...)

Acknowledgements

Professor Hugues Faure was an outstanding scientist. We met in the
late 60s and immediately became friends, a friendship which grew into
brotherhood within the years. Together, we draw up the lines for the
INQUA Neotectonics Commission and started the annual issuing of the
Neotectonics Bulletin (1977–1996). In 1979/80,weworked side by side
when I stayed at his institute in Luminy setting up a paleomagnetic
laboratory. It was a very creative and brainstorming period. Very early
did Hugues observe the differential sea level changes along the West
African coast (Faure, 1980), which meant much for me in the
formulation of the concept of geoid deformation (Mörner, 1976) and
of differential rotation with interchange of angular momentum
(Mörner, 1984, 1988). He noted the cyclic changes in African aridity
and published a very important paper challenging its future prediction
(Faure and Gac, 1981). When he started his remarkable carbon project,
he insisted that I should work with lithospheric degassing which led to
the paper by Mörner and Etiope (2002). It was a tragedy that his time
runout and thathewas not able to continue his carbon project,whichhe
loved and spent somuch efforts on. Itwas a true privilege forme to have
had the pleasure and benefit to work with Hugues for more than
30 years. And I am happy to dedicate this paper to his memory and
honour; and I bow my head in respect for this great man.

I thank Professor Guiot for providing me with the St. Jérôm
database, and I acknowledge a very nice and constructive collaboration
within INTAS project 97.3008 on “Geomagnetism and Climate”
(reported at the EGS–AUG–EUG meeting in Nice, 2003). Finally, I want
to thank my two reviewers for excellent comments and suggestions,
which significantly improved the paper.

(...)

Fig. 2. Instrumental LOD data plotted against sunspot numbers for the period 1831–1995 substantiating the existence of a correlation between Solar activity and Earth's rotation
(though the LOD data are, in fact, affected by multiple different factors).

reply to post by jjjtir


Thanks for the headsup.
Checking it out now.

Originally posted by jjjtir
fulltext in pdf.

jjjtir.files.wordpress.com/2011/05/solar-minima-earths-rotation-and-little-ice-ages-in-the-past-and-in-the-future.pdf

Thank you very much, I'm going to read that over the next few days.

(...)Fig. 2. Instrumental LOD data plotted against sunspot numbers for the period 1831–1995 substantiating the existence of a correlation between Solar activity and Earth's rotation
(though the LOD data are, in fact, affected by multiple different factors).

Thanks for that graph too. I haven't read the paper yet but I'm curious to see what the R-squared value is. That's not a great looking correlation, so I can't imagine that R-squared is very high, but it does look better if you scroll the graph to the right.
I don't expect it to be perfect, but here's what a good correlation looks like:


Not all the points are on the line, but at least you can see how the line fits the points on that one. I'm not really seeing much of a fit between the line and the points in the LOD versus sunspot number.