May 11th, mega EQ in Rome? Not a prediction - just discussion!

For starters - this is not intended to be a prediction thread, therefore I didn`t put it in the prediction category. If it needs to be changed - fine. I just want to know from the `EQ` experts here on ATS, what they think about the tectonic plates in Italy/Europe and what could be the chances of a mega EQ happening in Rome very soon.

The person who actually predicted this quake to happen on May 11th, is an Italian scientist/seismologist, Raffaele Bendandi, who claimed to have found a way of predicting earthquakes and was apparently able to predict, with great accuracy, several earthquakes that did indeed happen in the past.

Most of the material on him is in Italian but I found this in English:

theendtimesarehere.com... may-11-2011/

He based his research also considering the alignment of the planets.

Obviously, there`s a lot of talk about the Ring of Fire and the plates surrounding Japan at the moment, but noone really talks about the possibilities of something happening in Europe.

Apparently, there was a relatively weak tremor in Italy today - 2.5. Will find the source and post it later.
Could this be a pre-cursor?

So, looking forward to hearing opinions from the EQ experts here.

Here in Rome, we all heard of this prediction. Some officemates including me, are planning not to take the subway train on that day as a precaution. I guess it is better to be late for work sometimes rather than late fo work forever.

reply to post by Sarahko


In my opinion, no. Earthquakes will never, imo, be able to be predicted with accuracy on a continuous basis. Yea, every now and then someone guesses right, but that's no different that someone winning at roulette in Vegas. Just because they pick the right color/number doesn't make them a predictor of where the ball will land, it makes them one lucky bastard.

At best, we can determine what areas may be DUE for an earthquake but we will never ever wake up to an earthquake forecast on tv with the morning news warning of an earthquake on tuesday at 4:32pm. There's FAR too many variables involved, both known and unknown.

We can't even predict tornados and we can see the storms they spring from far in advance so how can we predict earthquakes when we have no real clue about the triggering mechanism behind them?

Did Bendandi really predict this? The quote below, translated by google, says no.

"The documents relating to 2011 is not however no reference to specific dates or places, such as those that have been reported on the Internet. The news about a supposed earthquake scheduled for May 11, 2011 in Rome are so devoid of any foundation. " It should be noted, finally, that the forecasts have always been Bendandi over several months, maximum one year, and not for the long term. It 'so far-fetched to think that he made the predictions even several decades after his death. The Romans can then breathe a sigh of relief, at least until the next catastrophic theory that lately on the Internet will never fail. "

www.majuro.it...

reply to post by Watts


But I think they have learned to predict tornadoes, at least to a certain extent. They know when conditions are right for tornadic weather and issue a watch, dopplar radar can detect a supercell and rotation in the clouds. So maybe eartquake prediction is getting closer?

Originally posted by tinker9917
reply to post by Watts

 

But I think they have learned to predict tornadoes, at least to a certain extent. They know when conditions are right for tornadic weather and issue a watch, dopplar radar can detect a supercell and rotation in the clouds. So maybe eartquake prediction is getting closer?

Not even close. Identifying when a tornado MAY POSSIBLY happen is far far far different from saying "Folks over here will have a tornado today at 5'o'clock."

Two weeks ago we had 4 tornado warnings(warning not watch, i know the difference) in my area and not a single tornado touched down, not even a funnel cloud. And we can see the storms that produce way before they even arrive.

So how can we possibly predict the movement of tectonic planes miles below the surface when we have nothing but a theory on how and why they move in the first place? I can appreciate your blind optimism considering the resulting destruction and death but there's no fact to back up your assumption that we're any closer to predicting earthquakes now than we were 20 years ago

Originally posted by tinker9917
reply to post by Watts

 

But I think they have learned to predict tornadoes, at least to a certain extent. They know when conditions are right for tornadic weather and issue a watch, dopplar radar can detect a supercell and rotation in the clouds. So maybe eartquake prediction is getting closer?

Its lot harder to predict earthquakes, than tornadoes. Many things affect to earthquakes. Even earthquake happening on other side of Earth can cause some changes. And you have to fully understand how much plate boundaries can take pressure, before it cracks. And its different in any spot. Activity of Sun also affects to earthquakes. You can only predict that it HAPPENS, but not possible to get any specific date. And remember, we can't monitor pressure in earth's crust, we only see signs of it.

The closest thing I've seen to accurate earthquake prediction is about a 2-3 week window by the guy that studies newspapers looking for a sudden spike in missing pets & news stories of unrestfull animals in zoos. I forget the man's name, but he has a fairly solid record. He cannot, by his own admission, predict the scale of the quake nor can he pinpoint a specific date, but he can say "In the next few weeks, there is a strong chance of an earthquake in this area based on increased flight responses from domesticated animals in the area."

I think everything else related to predicting earthquakes is all chance & coincidence.

I should have started a "mega thread" on today's earthquake. Hmmm... let's see. What does one wear to an earthquake. In Rome. On May 11, 2011.

A few damaging earthquake but no mega quakes. Maybe tomorrow guys. I hope we get one in California soon. I love earthquakes.

Originally posted by ToxicAngel
A few damaging earthquake but no mega quakes. Maybe tomorrow guys. I hope we get one in California soon. I love earthquakes.

Oke but the earthquake in Spain was the biggest ever recorded in that area.