OIL: Conditions are Ripe for another Great Depression.

just a slight aside-
does anyone know if iran uses the us dollar or the euro? if they use the dollar do they make any indications of switching?

They use the dollar and have talked about switching to the euro. What are you thinking? A little military persuasion to stick with the greenback.

EDITED OUT FLAME

[edit on 5-8-2004 by sardion2000]

sardion2000, if your going to flame me at least give me some hint as to why.

Sorry bout that but whenever I hear 'UFO' and 'Tesla Coil' mentioned in the same post my BS detectors go on full alert, but your entitled to your own opinion and I would suggest you post your comments and Ideas in the UFO forum. Again sorry bout that it was a knee-jerk reaction which usually doesn't happen to me...

[edit on 5-8-2004 by sardion2000]

Tesla indicated that it could be used for craft traveling off the ground. UFO does not mean green men from mars to me; it means unidentified flying object most likely our government experimenting with new technology. And thank you for letting me have my own opinion.

LOL whatever dude. I really meant no offence. However having going over you're full post since I apparently missed it I'm even more sorry for flaming you now

Here is my 2 cents for what its worth. The only way I can see oil being the cause of a great depression by its self is if there is a huge spike in price due to geo- political or military consequences. For instance what if Al Qaeda actually got their hands on a nuke and managed to nuke Saudi Arabia�s largest oil field.

It appears we have hit or will soon experience peak oil. When peak oil hits us there will not be a dramatic plunge in oil production but will be a decline never less causing a steady rise in prices which will help to facilitate investment in development of alternative energy sources. At that point the demand for oil in developed countries will start to decline. Developing countries will continue to use more oil due to the fact that they will most likely have to make upgrades or capital expenditures to use the new energy sources. It will be like the use of coal, which is used more by developing countries than developed countries.

This is pretty much how I see things going as well anyway I apologize again, and excellent post. Now lets just drop this and make peace K?

EDIT: If you're really interested in learning about some of the more 'exotic' types of propulsion being testing in inventors labratories and basments all around the world I advice you to go to this site jnaudin.free.fr...

[edit on 5-8-2004 by sardion2000]

you got it cryptorsa. now the question is how to get a war going with iran. perhaps picking a fight between isreal and iran then conveniently getting in the middle of it.

Photovoltaics

vri.etec.wwu.edu...

This stuff IS real and could save the world... I'm an engineering major at WWU and helped start Viking 29 today. It's an interesting car to drive... Another promising fuel source is Biodiesel... Here is the car I've been working on - Viking 23 - a biodiesel/electric hybrid that gets 80mpg+ in the city.



www.viking23.org...

Not really in line with the title of the post but appropriate for discussion of future technologies and how they will effect the world economy...





[edit on 6-8-2004 by tacitblue]

cool car we should not depend on oil and start moving towards other options that are available.

The $$$ folks on the news all say that if G.W. is reelected
the dow will go to 12,000+. IF Kerry gets in, aerospace
and defense stocks will plummet and a recession will
definately follow.

Wired.com
Do You See a Pattern Here?
By any measure, the late 1990s was a time of extraordinary growth and prosperity in much of the world - and yet, the global financial system still managed to lurch through six crises: Mexico in 1995; Thailand, Indonesia, and South Korea in 1997 and 1998; Russia in 1998; and Brazil from 1998 to 1999. The Indonesian crisis was especially severe: The country's quarterly real GDP plummeted 18.9 percent, and its currency fell into a hole 526 percent deep. Each of these upheavals spread to most parts of the globe, destabilizing currencies, knocking gaping holes in bank balance sheets and, in many cases, causing a wave of bankruptcies. The fact that each country recovered and the global economy roared on again is testament not to good financial management but to good luck.

Originally posted by Gools

Has anyone developed a method to use the Tesla coil for energy needs? Is that what UFO�s are using? They way they move makes me think they are using the earths magnetic field or an energy source such as the Tesla coil. Sorry I got of post but I couldn�t resist.

Hey. Sorry for laughing too Cryptsoria! It's just when I came upon UFO in this thread I thought you were trying to be funny. Of course there are unidentified flying objects, secret projects etc.

But the Tesla coil! I missed that the first time! I saw some documentaries and did some research on Tesla a while back but lost it all due to a computer crash. He did have ideas about a free limitless power source. His patents are official state secrets. Wonder why?

Originally posted by Romeo
The US and the global economy is currently held aloft on a foundation of cheap money, borrowed at nearly 0% interest as leverage to support asset prices of dubious value.

If the cost of borrowing this money increases the whole thing falls apart.
An oil shock, inflation a USD crisis, increasing budget deficits etc etc pulls the foundations from this highly leveraged economy. IT IS NOT A MATTER OF "IF" but a matter of WHEN. Hedge funds, property funds, retail stockmarket players will all rush for the door.

Timing is always difficult. I've been playing this game for many years and no way is a nanotech boom or similar going to make this a soft landing.
maybe this year, maybe next. Personally my current model has it happening just prior to the "proposed" US presidential election a/w a conflict with NK. I think Bush will try and deal with it before he's removed from office and may even use the conflict to delay/suspend the election.

Either way, the last bit aside, the deck of cards will fall and YOU DO NOT WANT TO BE IN DEBT AND YOU NEED TO HAVE AN INCOME> GET ON WITH IT!!!!!
Cheers. Romeo, the happy gambler.

Well Romeo its just prior to the US election. North Korea has nukes, Iran has a reactor built (but not on-line?) and oil just closed at $55.20 a barrel.

... but it's not the whole deck of cards just yet.

I think that will come after the election and the price of gas is allowed to rise. After all, the oil companies want to keep their people in the White House, so the price of gas is cheap in relative terms. The oil companies are making enough profit from the higher oil prices to give a cut to the consumers in lower gas prices. Whether or not Bush wins they'll put the squeeze on. They have to: demand is outpacing supply.

The inflation trigger?

More information on the debt situation�

Last week, the US treasury reached it�s debt ceiling and will raise it AFTER the election - Washington reaches federal debt ceiling.

The credit card is maxed out and things are about to get more expensive. So raise the limit.

How long can this go on?

Coupled with $55.20/barrel and ever tightening supply�

There are many threads on ATS discussing the debt situation:

Killing the US with debt!

National Debt - Deliberate ploy to destroy America?

Bush killing US financially - heading for $8 trillion debt

ECONOMY: Budget Deficit and the National Debt

ECONOMY: Repaying the National Debt

The Bankruptcy of the United States

Edit: added a link



[edit on 10/21/2004 by Gools]

Hey everybody, your friendly neighborhood Mod here.

Please watch the large quotes and esp. stop posting pictures or links without commentary.

Thanks

FredT

No problem FredT.

Perhaps those who want to discuss alternatives to oil could start another thread as well.

Going back to the original thread,

Don't worry people now that we own the Iraqi oil reserves, we are going to be guarantee for the next 50 years, now with the privatization of the Iraqi oil to benefit the Cheney "friends" in the business well they will be making probably 100 percent of the profits but we are still going to pay the price at the pump, remember people the profits are for the big corporations not for the poor people like us, we need the gas we need the oil we will bay whatever necessary to keep our big cars full of gas, and the government know that we are nothing more than lambs in their way to the slaughter house.

And for the alternative fuel, please......................is just like the health care reform to much money at stake to be lost by big money making corporations for the government to do anything about it, is just going to die in the table.

More information:

The energy situation in China is becoming critical. Despite efforts to slow down the rampant run-away growth they can no longer meet their energy demands. There have been shortages of hydropower due to drought in parts of the country. And there have been coal shortages, all of which have led to shortages in energy supply. They are largely responsible for driving up the demand for oil and thus price of oil. source

In North America we are facing shortages of natural gas and oil stocks as winter approaches. (See: Oil Near Peaks on Winter Supply Worries

Prices surged three percent on Wednesday after a U.S. government report showed a fifth fall in as many weeks in heating oil inventories at a time when stocks would normally be building.

Heating oil supplies are also running low in other key demand countries, such as Germany and Japan.

The U.S. government reported that stocks (including heating oil and diesel fuel) fell 1.9 million barrels to 119 million barrels in the week to Oct 15, nearly 10 percent below year-ago levels. while consumption is running four percent above this time last year.

While Greenspan tries to calm the markets other Federal reserve representatives are worried�

"The recent rise in oil prices has thus been large enough to constitute a significant shock to the economic system," said U.S. Federal Reserve Board Gov. Ben Bernanke in a speech on Thursday.

Some other headlines:

U.S. Heating Oil Price Hits Record for Third Week

Gold Trades at Six Month Highs

Dollar Holds Near 8-Month Low

For the more technically minded here are a couple excellent articles on how money works and the coming inflation crisis�

In relation to the value of the dollar see: THE "CARRY TRADE" ECONOMY

Which brings us to: THE GREAT INFLATION

WHAT IS TO COME
It is my belief that we are now embarked on a journey that will take us into a hyperinflationary depression. There may be brief deflationary spurts that punctuate this journey along the way, but an examination of history leads me to conclude hyperinflation is much more likely than deflation. Unlike the U.S. economy during the 1930s or Japan in the 1990s, the U.S. economy is no longer self sufficient in capital, manufacturing, and energy. And unlike the 1930s, our currency is no longer backed by gold. The U.S. is now the world�s largest debtor nation versus the world�s largest creditor nation as we were in the 30�s. We are no longer self sufficient in energy as we were during the last depression. We import 60 percent of our energy needs, a percentage that is growing each decade. We must also compete with other nations for the world�s last remaining barrels of oil as we enter into the twilight of the oil age. During the 30�s the U.S. created the Texas Railroad Commission to regulate oil and prop up prices because of the abundance of oil in this country. In contrast to the 1930s, U.S. oil and natural gas production decline each year. This forces the U.S. to import more of its energy needs, energy we pay for with dollars. When the world no longer accepts those dollars as payment, the full impact of inflation will hit home.

I would like to end with a quote from Jens O. Parsson�s book �Dying of Money.� It perhaps explains best where we are today and where we are headed.

�Everyone loves an early inflation. The effects at the beginning of inflation are all good. There is steepened money expansion, rising government spending, increased government budget deficits, booming stock markets, and spectacular general prosperity, all in the midst of temporarily stable prices. Everyone benefits, and no one pays. That is the early part of the cycle. In the later inflation, on the other hand, the effects are all bad. The government may steadily increase the money inflation in order to stave off the latter effects, but the latter effects patiently wait. In the terminal inflation, there is faltering prosperity, tightness of money, falling stock markets, rising taxes, still larger government deficits, and still roaring money expansion, now accompanied by soaring prices and ineffectiveness of al traditional remedies. Everyone pays and no one benefits. That is the full cycle of every inflation.�

Saving for a rainy day?

It�s here.