What happens when the U.S. dollar goes below 73???

reply to post by InvisibleAlbatross


Thats not nice, A good portion of the Australian population is well seasoned to the land, I would assume it would be a fairly hard country to conquer... I hope

The last time the US dollar index bottomed near 71 was back in 2008. At the time the Dow Jones was building a shoulder formation near 13,000. Before the end of 2008 the Dollar index shot up to 88 and the stock market fell off its shoulder from 13,000 down to 7500 in the few remaining months. Oil prices and gasoline prices also peaked mid summer 2008, wholesale gasoline went over 3.50 a gallon which was still above our current spike of 3.35 a gallon.

The doomsday forecasters were calling for the dollar index to drop to 50 after the long fall that ended in 2008 at 71. There is nothing magic about 73 and you might think a double bottom formation at 71 would be a little too obvious.

Spoke to an analyst this morning that claimed the government wants some inflation to help ease the woes of the housing market collapse. He claimed the US economy is much more resilient now coming out of the recession than irt was in 2008 and that fuel prices could rise another 20 percent without crippling the current economy. There are even some companies like IBM that have been helped by the weaker dollar. It makes US export goods much more competitively priced overseas.

So the question is how far will the fed led the dollar fall, surely a carbon copy repeat of 2008 would be a little unimaginative?

the reason why the S is about to hit the Fan this time is because back in 2008 when the dollar was 72/71 we were saved by quantitative easing. well, QE is no longer working, in fact its having the reverse effect that its supposed to.

In other words, there is nothing left to save us this time.

reply to post by djtek


The quantitative easing began in spring of 2009 and was responsible for the rally back up from 6400.

This time around the economy is a little stronger so they may not need a QE3.

If the dollar does rally due to perceived tightening the downside target for the Dow would be around 9700.

reply to post by Bordon81


That is in Latin to me could you make it a lil clearer

Originally posted by dniMnepO
reply to post by InvisibleAlbatross

 

Thats not nice, A good portion of the Australian population is well seasoned to the land, I would assume it would be a fairly hard country to conquer... I hope

The western, eastern and southern coasts are well defended...
...there is one all weather road running from the north...
...so we allow an invader to attack from the north...
...defending this road somewhere near Alice Springs...
...cut off supply lines from the rear and let the Dingos, Snakes, Spiders and Crocs do the rest.

reply to post by Bordon81


good post.

QE is certainly still working. only prob. for globalist interests is the unrest rising prices and exported inflation is causing via ME riots and china inflation.....also euro rising which hurts there debt issues over there.

the dollar is not a wimp. LOL. the dollar is bad ass. it saved the world in 2008 when the dollar system back stopped money market funds that had a run on them. and other central banks stood behind it.

I see the fed coming out late april and being very very vague w/ direction of future qe....i think asets will generally fall in may...and i think the fed will just decide to roll over mbs investments to the tune of 30b/month "pomo's" comp. with 100/B now....so that is why markets will "risk off" a bit......and i believe the fed will prolly unleash QE 3 in the late summer.......with the dow about 15% lower....25% off oil >>>>I think the dollar will bottom around 72 in the next week or so....then rally to the low 80's.........only to see qe 3 really inject some speculation back into commodity's in the fall . or of course there could be a false flag to divert anger if the fed/international interests can't agree and they need to divert public anger for economic fallout.

According to Frances insites ( and she is batting soooo hi on accurate)
71.88 on the dollar index is the majic number
if the USD touches that it will be free fall from there
www.fxstreet.com...

Frances uses a very accurate PROVEN mathmatical system
maybe the only one that works as well

reply to post by Bordon81


They will need QE3 because there simply isn't enough capital to fund the Government and the Equities markets at the same time.. we are pulling such massive deficits every month that when the Fed stops buying, there won't be enough buyers.

I'd also venture to say that we have not seen an economic increase, the economic increases are still under the level of inflation, to me the "increase" is nothing more than the amped up liquidity added by the Fed. There is a vacuum of wealth, but easy money at the same time..