The Final Warning to Tokyo

reply to post by jadedANDcynical


Here is the corresponding quake from the JMA, and they are calling it a 4.3:

www.jma.go.jp...

It's well within a "normal" mag range for northern Tokyo, according to historical seismicity, and it also fits the typical depth profile for its location. So this one may be nothing more than that.

But in the context of the overall pattern of quakes moving closer and closer, that's getting pretty close.

They may even get a few 4's or so in Tokyo, but we're just looking for those big plate boundaries to stay glued. And so far, so good. Long term though, to the north and south of the rupture area is likely where a next bigger one might happen because of stress loading. And both triple junctions could fall within that, the right one being particularly vulnerable.

As you are probably aware, there have been some very interesting posts about US FEMA/FBI disaster planning and excercises lately here on ATS. I was reading through people's guesses at what the suspected, imminent 'event' may be, and the thought crossed my mind that, while I agree that there are plenty of US domestic, geophysical and military issues on the agenda, by far the most troubling and large scale disaster warning that I heard about last year was the high probability of such a massive quake in Japan/Tokyo region, as stated by the Japan government/scientists soon after their 2011 quake/Tsunami.

As an avid poster last year on the main Fukushima thread, I was well aware of the news coverage at that time, and the unflinching conviction their officials assigned to their warning of an imminent and possibly larger quake on this fault zone stuck out in my mind as I'm sure it did for others.

In the event of what you and they implied happening, and bearing in mind:

- the vulnerability of multiple Japanese radiological establishments to tsunami and severe seismic events
- the vulnerability of the Pacific and US to radioactive fallout (air/sea) in Japan based repeats of Fukushima scenarios
- the continued vulnerability of the remaining, and significantly weakened structures at Fukushima Daichii, including both reactors but also the already weakened structures and systems containing the very large amounts of stored waste (CSFP).
- the fact that multiple other nuclear power sites in Japan, and near this next fault/at risk zone, were also recently subjected to significant seismic disturbance, to the extent that many needed shut-downs, and/or suffered faults (weakened?).
- the disturbing liquifaction that presented itself in large built up-areas including within Tokyo/Tokyo bay/reclaimed land.
- the posts on the main thread that described just how far towards preparation for armed escort of US key personnel from Tokyo appeared to reach in the days where it was as yet uncertain whether evacuation of Tokyo (organised or spontaneous) may happen.
-the close links between US and Japanese corporations in designing and building many of Japan's nuclear installations.

Well, it just occured to me that the USA may have an eye on other 'events' as well as those normally identified within it's borders. Would it be beyond the pale to imagine scenarios where the USA become involved in large scale Japanese refugee and disaster programs, as well as the many US citizens living there? Could there even be a case for looking at moving people away from fallout in the USA were it more severe than the last event?

Just a thought.

Larger seismicity has been back on the rise this week:



earthquake.usgs.gov...

There's got to be a whole temple of people in Tokyo praying 24/7. I am convinced of this now, because I know of no other way they have escaped a direct hit of a bigger one after all this time. The mechanism is there for it, but it's just not ready to go yet. Or is it. Look at that picture again. Why all of sudden the increase? We were just starting to get comfortable.

Then again we are approaching March, the very time of the year last year that the fault was very active. (9.1). I hope that's just a coincidence.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Larger seismicity has been back on the rise this week:
There's got to be a whole temple of people in Tokyo praying 24/7. I am convinced of this now, because I know of no other way they have escaped a direct hit of a bigger one after all this time.

Oh yes, many People do,
i learned many Kanjis by reading this Praying Plates
(we normally don't do this but i am sooooo curious)


A lot ask for protection of new EQ's!

In the last 12 Hours we has had 2 above Mag. 5,
a little bit scary!

I want to go for a few Days to our Island
but my Wive is not scared like i am

reply to post by Human0815


Funny, nice to speculate and have you provide the picture, and story of proof of the prayers!

That's bizarre.

Although I must admit if I were in Tokyo, I'd probably be praying too. To who or what, not sure, but that's a story for another thread. Anyway, thanks for that update!

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Well, the scary thing is that the EQs and the intensities have been on the increase in the last couple of days. And the majority have been felt in Tokyo, even because there`s an increasing number in the Chiba area.

Another thing, just like before 3/11 last year, there have been huge differences in temperatures. It was snowing yesterday, forecast to be about 15 degrees celsius today, back to 6 degrees tomorrow and then reaching 19 around Monday. Feels a bit like a deja vu....let`s hope it`s just a simple coincidence.

TA ... I thought you find this particularly interesting. Especially since MSM is reporting it!!!

A year on from one of the biggest earthquakes in recorded history, Japanese scientists are warning anew that Tokyo could soon be hit by a quake that will kill thousands and cause untold damage.

Greater Tokyo, home to 35 million tightly packed people, has seen a three-fold increase in tectonic activity since the magnitude 9.0 undersea quake that unleashed a killer tsunami last March.

A little further down in the article....

The University of Tokyo's Earthquake Research Institute says the city, built at the intersection of four tectonic plates, has a 50 percent chance of suffering a major quake -- anything above a magnitude 7.0 -- in the next four years.

"We must prepare for the earthquake that will happen," says Asahiko Taira, executive director of the government's Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology.

Source - Yahoo News - Quake researchers warn of Tokyo's 'Big One'

I'll let you and the rest of the folks out there, read further for yourselves.

The Germans arrived with their Spaceship "Sonne" (Sun)
www.bmbf.de...

And a Article in German:
www.marum.de...

According to them (Trustable)
the Earth-crust opened in a Length of 400 Kilometer,
the whole Honshu Island (The big one of 4) moved 5 Meter to the East
and in the Japanese Trench even 50 Meter!

Als Folge der Erschütterungen riss die Erdkruste in wenigen Minuten auf einer Länge von 400 Kilometern auf. Teile der Honshu-Küste wurden ruckartig um bis zu fünf Meter Richtung Osten versetzt. Am Rand des Japan-Grabens betrug der Versatz von Teilen der Erdkruste sogar über 50 Meter. Die plötzliche Plattenbewegung hob den Meeresboden auf einer Fläche von der Größe Schleswig-Holsteins um bis zu fünf Meter an. Untermeerische Rutschungen verfrachteten große Gesteinsmassen in den Japan-Graben.

A huge Area (Ca. 16.000 Square-Kilometer!!!) moved 5 Meter up!!!

They also said that the Chance for a big one, like we saw at 03/11, is nearly Zero in that Area!

Edito:

I found an article in English, Dozo o Kudasai:

Scientists suspect that the extraordinary force of the tsunami, which killed some 20,000 people, may have been the combined result of the sea floor rising with a jolt by up to five metres and of quake-triggered slides of the Japanese continental shelf.

The team will search for clues of either mechanism: the fine-scaled pattern of horizontal and vertical displacement of the crust beneath the ocean floor and the amount and origin of sediment that may have slid into the 7,000 metre-deep Japan trench will shed light on the fateful chain of events and help constrain the precise source of the tsunami, they hope.

“In the light of the tragic events last year the stability of the continental shelf off Honshu is a key research topic,” says Wefer. “We are glad that we can assist our Japanese colleagues with precious ship time. I hope that this cruise will mark the beginning of a close collaboration between our countries in marine sciences.”

blogs.nature.com...

Magnitude 5.4
Date-Time Friday, March 09, 2012 at 17:25:33 UTC
Saturday, March 10, 2012 at 02:25:33 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 36.732°N, 140.528°E
Depth 25.3 km (15.7 miles)
Region NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 40 km (24 miles) N of Mito, Honshu, Japan
47 km (29 miles) SW of Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
61 km (37 miles) ENE of Utsunomiya, Honshu, Japan
135 km (83 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.3 km (7.6 miles); depth +/- 7 km (4.3 miles)
Parameters NST=367, Nph=379, Dmin=209.3 km, Rmss=1.06 sec, Gp= 76°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=9

Source

Japan's a little shaky today - hope it settles back down :-(

869 Tohoku tsunami parallels stun Research team's efforts set precedent to add history to other quake-study disciplines

The disaster lent credibility to his team's research methodology, prompting others to launch interdisciplinary studies integrating seismology, geology and philology to examine the history of earthquakes over hundreds of years.

Shishikura's team took soil layer samples along the Tohoku coast and checked them against disaster accounts recorded in ancient chronicles. This helped them conclude that major temblors and tsunami repeatedly slam Tohoku over a cycle of between 500 and 1,000 years.

Shishikura had planned to visit the Fukushima Prefectural Government last March 23 to explain this danger. Shishikura's team even drew up maps of the areas flooded by the 869 tsunami and planned to distribute copies to residents along the coast.

The maps turned out to be nearly identical to the areas that were inundated on March 11. "We could have saved some lives if the tsunami had come just a month later," he lamented. Shishikura said his team's approach — studying both soil layers and historical accounts to extrapolate quake cycles over hundreds of years — was regarded as a "minor" technique by seismologists.

Before March 11, mainstream seismologists had mostly focused on watching and analyzing real-time data from observation equipment tracking tectonic plate and ground movements. This led them to focus only on temblors from the past 100 years or so, because that's as far back as the available data went, Shishikura said.

But in the wake of March 11, a panel under the government's Central Disaster Management Council in June adopted a new interim report signaling a clear departure from traditional seismology. The report recommended that the government prepare for a "worst case" earthquake and tsunami combo that could strike in a cycle extending over hundreds or even thousands of years.

"To confirm occurrence of gigantic tsunami over thousands of years, it's important to strengthen integrated research from not only seismology, but also archaeology, historical science and surveys of tsunami sediment, soil and animal fossils," the report said.

www.japantimes.co.jp...

TA, however noble your sentiments might be...and I know you personally mean well

Here is why they won't evac the Japanese from Tokyo:
The PTB don't give a rodent's posteriour.

They have lied to the people there about the CERTAIN deadly situation re Fucushima
the PTB are incinerating the radioactive waste in incinerators all around Tokyo

I think the ptb there do NOT care one bit about the peopoe of tokyo the people of Japan or the people who are down wind of tokyo in America and Canada..and SA the carribean or th EU

Just like thay don't care for Palistinians, Israelis Afghanies, Iraqis, Africans, or Iranians.
Just like they didn't care about people in Stalinist Russia, eastern Europe, nor the several million Germans ordered starved after ww2, nor the people who fought in ww's 1,2, and 3
etc

First time poster, in Tokyo. I would like to bail but the wife is 8 months pregnant with our first child.
Am fretting non-stop over this.

Uh oh, I think they just got a 6 near Tokyo.

yep. Intensity 5+ mag 6.1, right off the coast near Tokyo,.

www.jma.go.jp...

Crap I was hoping the 6.8 north didn't set anything else off... I was pretty much expecting some bigger ones to the north and south of the initial 9.1

Yeah, they had to feel that in Tokyo and east of Tokyo:
www.jma.go.jp...

USGS has it as a 5.7:
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Ouch, depth of only 10 to 16 km! No wonder the intensity was so great.

Originally posted by Alekto
First time poster, in Tokyo. I would like to bail but the wife is 8 months pregnant with our first child.
Am fretting non-stop over this.

If you leave, maybe the trip won't be too bad for her as it might be a relief to you both to just leave the area for a little while. The trip of leaving- in itself might be a relief. if you are fretting non-stop, maybe she is too.

I understand your fear though. Possibility or early labor, not being near a good hospital mid trip.. would not be good, but you know... might not turn out too bad. I've talked to woman in the states who much to my surprise prefer to have their babies at home with no epidural so they can get up and go to the bathroom on their own the next day... without help and in their home and I'm like WHAAAAT?

Whatever you do though... good luck.

Of course we felt it, here it was like a Mag. 3,5-to 4!
Strange day today!

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time Thursday, March 15, 2012 at 19:20:18 UTC
Friday, March 16, 2012 at 04:20:18 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.794°N, 139.213°E
Depth 99.9 km (62.1 miles)
Region NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 50 km (31 miles) WNW of TOKYO, Japan
53 km (32 miles) NW of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
58 km (36 miles) ENE of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
67 km (41 miles) S of Maebashi, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 11.9 km (7.4 miles); depth +/- 8 km (5.0 miles)
Parameters NST=255, Nph=279, Dmin=123.6 km, Rmss=1 sec, Gp= 83°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=5
Source Magnitude: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Location: USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)

Event ID usb0008hu0

Source

Map

reply to post by NotAnAspie


Thanks. I've experienced quite a few quakes since living here, but I haven't experienced this level of regularity before now. Rarely a day passes without some sort of shaking. Difficult to just 'up sticks' as I have a job and responsibilities, and as for her, her family.
I'm not thinking of leaving Japan altogether, though. I'm just trying to work through the various scenarios and come up with a workable solution. Money is an issue too, my job doesn't pay fantastically well.

reply to post by Human0815


Felt that too! I was in Higashi-Koganei at the time. Most of the locals tell me that Tachikawa sits on a fault line and it could turn nasty....

I'm beginning to wonder if all these earthquakes that have harmed Japan are retaliation from the Chinese after Japan attacked China in the 1930s or was it the 1940s?

Hi Friends,

I was thinking about Tokyo and then came up with some preventive methods for Tsunami.

articles-and-intuition.blogspot.in...:00:00-08:00&updated-max=2013-01-01T00:00:00-08:00&max-results=13

In order to fight back Tsunami, very deep dug wells should be kept completely covered. The system should be such that at the time of Tsunami the wells should open up automatically. This can help Japan fight it.

I am still thinking about other ways by which Japan can be helped.

Your feedback will help me walk faster.

Thank you!