Is Long Valley Supervolcano Activating? Swarm Just started

reply to post by kro32

Actually those of us with master's degree's or phd's study the course of earthquakes or volcanoes over thousand and hundreds of thousands of years in any particular location. And what your seeing is nothing out of the ordinary however it will look like that to someone who doesn't have enough education to decipher what all the data is telling you compared to other trends throughout history.

Um, beg to differ there my friend. You nay be studying volcanoes over thousand year periods but there is scant information on earthquakes a 1000 years back and none hundreds of thousands of years back.

You would also be aware as a geologist that trends in earthquakes and volcanoes are often NOT reliable. There was NO trend for Tohoku just as a recent example. I tend to look at the longer term trends myself, but I am also aware that these are not reliable and I would certainly not be able to say that a 'trend' would hold good over more than 1000 years.

Maybe political science is a good idea in your case after all?

reply to post by kro32

And the title very much is a panic post since when Long Valley does eventually go you will be able to measure the deaths in the hundreds of thousands.

Post title is a question, not a statement. Big difference.
"Deaths in the hundreds of thousands" ... All the more reason to bring attention to a swarm occurring closeby... just my opinion of course. No harm done by watching and discussing, right?

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by kro32

 

Actually those of us with master's degree's or phd's study the course of earthquakes or volcanoes over thousand and hundreds of thousands of years in any particular location. And what your seeing is nothing out of the ordinary however it will look like that to someone who doesn't have enough education to decipher what all the data is telling you compared to other trends throughout history.

Um, beg to differ there my friend. You nay be studying volcanoes over thousand year periods but there is scant information on earthquakes a 1000 years back and none hundreds of thousands of years back.

You would also be aware as a geologist that trends in earthquakes and volcanoes are often NOT reliable. There was NO trend for Tohoku just as a recent example. I tend to look at the longer term trends myself, but I am also aware that these are not reliable and I would certainly not be able to say that a 'trend' would hold good over more than 1000 years.

Maybe political science is a good idea in your case after all?

Which was my point. Someone making a post wondering if a caldera is activating by looking at recent trends in seismic activity is not reliable at all. Last time Long Valley showed signs of activating in the 80's there were multiple signs that caused them to issue a warning that was later recalled.

Originally posted by kro32
This poster did this same thing a few weeks ago with Yellowstone...trying to spread fear and I had to totally debunk that one. When the op of this post gets formal education and actually studies active volcanoes for awhile he can debate me. Knowing how to access sites on the web does not make you qualified to make ration judgments.

I have been watching Yellowstone for years... I also spotted the Nevada quakes while working the Japanese quake thread... but I did not know the details. I see no one in TA's posts running around panicking like headless chickens or packing their bags and heading for safer ground...

However I HAVE seen a lot of people that have Ph.D's using terms like puzzled, stumped, don't know, etc in a great many fields dealing with Earth and Solar System changes..

Flashing a paper doesn't make you right...

Originally posted by zorgon

Originally posted by kro32
This poster did this same thing a few weeks ago with Yellowstone...trying to spread fear and I had to totally debunk that one. When the op of this post gets formal education and actually studies active volcanoes for awhile he can debate me. Knowing how to access sites on the web does not make you qualified to make ration judgments.

I have been watching Yellowstone for years... I also spotted the Nevada quakes while working the Japanese quake thread... but I did not know the details. I see no one in TA's posts running around panicking like headless chickens or packing their bags and heading for safer ground...

However I HAVE seen a lot of people that have Ph.D's using terms like puzzled, stumped, don't know, etc in a great many fields dealing with Earth and Solar System changes..

Flashing a paper doesn't make you right...

I have no idea when this caldera is going to erupt and neither does anyone else. I never flashed any paper until I was asked the question. And if you want to see panic posts than go read his other thread where people were becoming very unnerved at every little rumble.

But if you guys want to think it's going to erupt soon from some guy looking at geology sites when the scientific community itself has no idea and consensually agrees it won't happen in our lifetime than more power to ya. If you live anywhere from Ca to about NM though I'd start selling your houses now while you can get something for them.

I would suggest that if the "experts" on this thread don't like TA's style and question his motives, perhaps they should exit stage right and start their own thread where all the Master degrees and higher can congregate and leave this thread to us lay people. Stick to your guns TA. The rest of us DO enjoy your threads

Originally posted by kro32
This poster did this same thing a few weeks ago with Yellowstone...trying to spread fear and I had to totally debunk that one. When the op of this post gets formal education and actually studies active volcanoes for awhile he can debate me. Knowing how to access sites on the web does not make you qualified to make ration judgements.

Isn't this basically the same attitude taken by those better qualified towards Alfred Wegener?

Or what academia told people for hundreds of years when the "dumb farmers" kept telling them there were rocks falling from the sky?

reply to post by MrSmokeydogg7

Can someone explain to me WTF us happening

I gave you a star for just cracking me up. No offence please - it's just that - never mind - just thanks for that

that is super sweet!

reply to post by zorgon

However I HAVE seen a lot of people that have Ph.D's using terms like puzzled, stumped, don't know, etc in a great many fields dealing with Earth and Solar System changes..

Those are almost exactly the answers to the swarm of earthquakes that have occurred in Arkansas.

Originally posted by kro32
This poster did this same thing a few weeks ago with Yellowstone...trying to spread fear and I had to totally debunk that one. When the op of this post gets formal education and actually studies active volcanoes for awhile he can debate me. Knowing how to access sites on the web does not make you qualified to make ration judgements.

Passion, books, the internet and consulting others to check your work is IMHO pretty close to a formal education. He may not be the master of quake prediction but he knows heaps more than me and many others and I'm sure, in time, he'll know as much as any formally educated quaker! I'm pretty sure he asked Puterman to check his observations in the Yellowstone thread too...I respect that! I think you're coming across with a wee bit too much arrogance. If he's clearly wrong in your formally educated opinion then maybe try helping him out by sharing your hard earned wisdom in a positive rather than the "Holier than thou approach you seem to have adopted and we'll all benefit!

Originally posted by KathyG427
reply to post by kro32

 

Watch seismic tracking from all over the world and you will see upticks in activity and downticks. The problem is that a few people on this site see something and start throwing out these panic posts when they have zero knowledge of geology.

OP started a thread to bring attention to the ongoing Nevada swarm - it didn't read like a "panic" post.
And you really don't know OP's level of knowledge to state that he has ZERO knowledge of geology. C'mon, lighten-up.

I agree with you, Kathy. We're very glad to have you with us, kro32!!! But please understand, TrueAmerican is very highly respected around here for his level head and daily dedication to watching the geological activity of our planet. He knows these areas and their periodic habits, because he's been watching them closely for a long time on a daily basis. Think of it like this: if you needed to know the traffic patterns for a period of time for a certain traffic intersection, who would be more likely to have better information: the guy who lives on the corner of the intersection and watches the traffic out his window everyday, or the guy who lives 100 miles away in another city but has a degree in urban planning? I'm sure there would be valuable information from both of these guys, but I think the information would be worth much less if it was just the opinion of the expert that mattered.

So there you have it. The urban planner's opinion is much more complete when the opinion of the daily watcher is added to the data, and vice-versa. Okay? As it applies to this swarm at Long Valley, it should not be one opinion competing with the other, it should be two sets of information working together to add value to the whole.

Originally posted by megabogie
I would suggest that if the "experts" on this thread don't like TA's style and question his motives, perhaps they should exit stage right and start their own thread where all the Master degrees and higher can congregate and leave this thread to us lay people. Stick to your guns TA. The rest of us DO enjoy your threads

Hahaha point well taken...it is a conspiracy site after all so I guess that's what most are here for. I'll save my comments for scientific websites and join in the fun here.

Ignoring the bickering for a moment the USGS have a good page on Long Valley "Living with a restless caldera" and just past half way down....

PLANNED USGS RESPONSE TO UNREST IN THE LONG VALLEY AREA

This gives alert levels.

Example:

INTENSE UNREST (may occur about once a decade): For example, a quake swarm with at least one magnitude 5 earthquake and (or) evidence of increased magma movement or pressure at depth, as indicated by a pronounced increase in the rate of ground deformation.

Originally posted by kro32
when the scientific community itself has no idea and consensually agrees it won't happen in our lifetime

So they have no idea, but agree it won't happen soon...

Hmmm yup that makes a lot of sense

Kinda like a weatherman saying "There is a 50% chance of rain today"

Originally posted by megabogie
I would suggest that if the "experts" on this thread don't like TA's style and question his motives, perhaps they should exit stage right and start their own thread where all the Master degrees and higher can congregate and leave this thread to us lay people. Stick to your guns TA. The rest of us DO enjoy your threads

I would suggest that ATS benefits from contrary opinions rather than the straight-line hype and misinterpretation that typically gets people riled up. I for one would accept an opinion on any subject from someone who's actually studied that subject versus someone who simply observes statistics related to that subject.

Originally posted by PuterMan
Ignoring the bickering for a moment the USGS have a good page on Long Valley "Living with a restless caldera" and just past half way down....

PLANNED USGS RESPONSE TO UNREST IN THE LONG VALLEY AREA

This gives alert levels.

Example:

INTENSE UNREST (may occur about once a decade): For example, a quake swarm with at least one magnitude 5 earthquake and (or) evidence of increased magma movement or pressure at depth, as indicated by a pronounced increase in the rate of ground deformation.

edit on 15/4/2011 by PuterMan because: (no reason given)

This will make for an interesting read!!!

Thanks!!!

Originally posted by megabogie
I would suggest that if the "experts" on this thread don't like TA's style and question his motives, perhaps they should exit stage right and start their own thread where all the Master degrees and higher can congregate and leave this thread to us lay people. Stick to your guns TA. The rest of us DO enjoy your threads

Well that is quite simply the most ignorant post I have seen all day... TA asked for others to look at it then when soemone comes along and starts to debunk it he gets agitated. Then you imply that if someone doesn't like what he has to say they should exit stage right. I will tell you why I find this funny. This seems to be the typical response to any contrary proof of any doomsday theory. Whenever someone shows contradictory evidence people don't just get offended they attempt to completely discredit anything the person has to say. It is oh so much nicer in those protective bubbles that you all live in where no one else is right except for what you believe in.

It leads me to ask this one simple question.. ... Do you think the purpose of these forums is for everyone to just go wow your right and move on? I mean if you didn't have contrary beliefs then what would be the point of the forum. At this point it would just be another personal blog. Debate is what makes forums like this interesting. So I would suggest if you don't like people disagreeing with people then maybe you should exit stage right.

"During the early 1990's, trees began dying off at several places on Mammoth Mountain on the southwest edge of Long Valley Caldera. Studies conducted by USGS and U.S. Forest Service scientists show that the trees are being killed by large amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) gas seeping up through the soil from magma deep beneath Mammoth Mountain. Such emissions of volcanic gas, as well as earthquake swarms and ground swelling, commonly precede volcanic eruptions. When these events precede an eruption of a "central vent" volcano, such as Mount St. Helens, Washington, they normally last only a few weeks or months. However, such symptoms of volcanic unrest may persist for decades or even centuries at large calderas, such as Long Valley Caldera. Recent studies indicate that only about one in six such episodes of unrest at large calderas worldwide actually culminates in an eruption."

ONLY.... Geeeese.... -_-' -_-'

link: pubs.usgs.gov...

Originally posted by Phantom28804
Well that is quite simply the most ignorant post I have seen all day... TA asked for others to look at it then when soemone comes along and starts to debunk it he gets agitated. Then you imply that if someone doesn't like what he has to say they should exit stage right. I will tell you why I find this funny. This seems to be the typical response to any contrary proof of any doomsday theory. Whenever someone shows contradictory evidence people don't just get offended they attempt to completely discredit anything the person has to say. It is oh so much nicer in those protective bubbles that you all live in where no one else is right except for what you believe in.

It leads me to ask this one simple question.. ... Do you think the purpose of these forums is for everyone to just go wow your right and move on? I mean if you didn't have contrary beliefs then what would be the point of the forum. At this point it would just be another personal blog. Debate is what makes forums like this interesting. So I would suggest if you don't like people disagreeing with people then maybe you should exit stage right.

No... what people were responding negatively to was this attitude right off the bat from kro32

Originally posted by kro32
Man why are you starting a new fear-mongering earthquake thread. This place is always active. I swear some of you won't rest until you convince as many people as you can how the end of the world is coming.

Sadly now this thread is distracted from something interesting where I *was* learning about an area I didn't know about into a bickering over what is worth posting and what isn't. There was nothing wrong with the thread. There was also nothing wrong with simply stating "This is normal for this area... here look."

It's the attitudes... especially when one side wants to pull out the "when you're as qualified as I am you can debate me" card.

I'm sorry, but any serious student of science history knows it is absolutely *covered* with the corpses of experts who were highly qualified getting a face full of egg. I'm not saying that is what kro32 is in for in this one... but it's about the attitude. Especially in a field that is so spotty in the history records and so unpredictable when it can finally "go wrong" and "this is normal" switches to "this ain't normal no more!!!!"

Namaste.