RAF shot down in "friendly fire" incident.

cassini - I wouldn't be 100% certain about that. It will all depend on how this war goes.

Remember that the majority of support for Tony Blair is coming from Conservatives, who don't traditionally vote Labour!

I would expect the LibDem's to pull back some seats on the Tories (at the expense of Labour), but they probably won't take second place due to Charles Kennedy being a bumbling idiot. His heart is in the right place, just a shame his mouth doesn't get that across...

Labour 410

Conservative 163


Liberal Democrat 53

Scottish National Party/Plaid Cymru 9
(SNP 5/PC 4)

Ulster Unionist 6

Democratic Unionist 5

Sinn Fein 4
(Have not taken their seats)

Social Democratic & Labour 3


Independent 1

Independent Conservative 1


Speaker & 3 Deputies 4
(Do not normally vote)

Total
659

Government majority
165

This is the most current breakdown of the UK parliament and as you can see the majority that the Labour party has is 165. Thought this may help.


"cassini - I wouldn't be 100% certain about that. It will all depend on how this war goes."

Yep, you are right of course, just think its most likely he will suffer from domestic issues rather than the war.

"Remember that the majority of support for Tony Blair is coming from Conservatives, who don't traditionally vote Labour! "

True, that they are supporting him but with the kind if figures he has for a majority he may have got his way without them.

Oh yeah, certainly within parliment. Even Clare Short voted with the government, even though she'd claimed that Tony Blair was being reckless! There was a lot of pressure inside parliament on Labour MP's...

Having said that, I really meant the population as a whole. Most of the people who are anti-war seem to be Labour voters...

If the Conservatives and everyone else voted against the government then according to your figures it would only of taken 83 Labour MP's to rebel.In the first vote there were 122 in the latest one more 140?

So it only takes 83 of those rebels to vote against,say,Health policy with the Conservatives and Blair has a problem.

I agree with Cassini if it looks like he is permenantly damaged he will step down but watch out for Blunket or another because Brown may not get Blairs important vote of confidence.

Anyway we'll see but the last three mornings Blair has woken up along with the rest of Britain to bad news.I don't think it is a question of if it will damage him if this carries on but how much.