Radiation from Japan not likely to harm North America

Radiation from Japan's stricken Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant has been detected 100 miles to the northeast, over the Pacific Ocean, by the U.S. military. Westerly to southwesterly winds have predominated over Japan the past few days, carrying most of the radiation eastwards out to sea. The latest forecast for Sendai, Japan, located about 40 miles north of the Fukushima nuclear plant, calls for winds with a westerly component to dominate for the remainder of the week, with the exception of a 6-hour period on Tuesday. Thus, any radiation released by the nuclear plant will primarily affect Japan or blow out to sea. A good tool to predict the radiation cloud's path is NOAA's HYSPLIT trajectory model. The model uses the GFS model's winds to track the movement of a hypothetical release of a substance into the atmosphere. One can specify the altitude of the release as well as the location, and follow the trajectory for up to two weeks. However, given the highly chaotic nature of the atmosphere's winds, trajectories beyond about 3 days have huge uncertainties.One can get only a general idea of where a plume is headed beyond 3 days. I've been performing a number of runs of HYSPLIT over past few days, and so far great majority of these runs have taken plumes of radioactivity emitted from Japan's east coast eastwards over the Pacific, with the plumes staying over water for at least 5 days. Some of the plumes move over eastern Siberia, Alaska, Canada, the U.S., and Mexico in 5 - 7 days. Such a long time spent over water will mean that the vast majority of the radioactive particles will settle out of the atmosphere or get caught up in precipitation and rained out. It is highly unlikely that any radiation capable of causing harm to people will be left in atmosphere after seven days and 2000+ miles of travel distance. Even the Chernobyl nuclear disaster, which had a far more serious release of radioactivity, was unable to spread significant contamination more than about 1000 miles.

SOURCE

Projection Model 1



Projection Model 2



Projection Model 3




I found this information, what do you all think about it?

One model does look like it may pose a potential threat I wonder if there are models for projecting fallout dissipation rates...

reply to post by Deja`Vu

I've been watching the weather models being used for a long time (before the disaster). They are generally pretty good for a day or two out but after that they get less and less reliable. (oops, the website says that).

I would say the dispersal within the track is even less certain. Turbulence, vertical movement, and precipitation would be major factors affecting it.

i think its as unlikely as it was when the japan authorities said it was not likely that radiation would be released, or when it wasn't likely the plants would be harmed at all necause they "were desgined to withstand..."

or how its not likely at sometime a place could have an earthquake, volcano erupting, tsunami, nuclear meltdown, and lying govt officials all in the same week.


my sarcasm is not to be directed at the OP btw.. have a great evening friend

reply to post by Phage


OMG, I just rode Phage's coattails

no offense Phage, I've always respected you.


ps, my attempt at a compliment not an insult or slight.

These claims are being made on the explosions they have already experienced taking the radiation which has already been released into consideration...This says nothing for a full blown meltdown situation.

There are mixed opinions on what will happen but here is some additional information from the other side of the isle...

Calculated time for radioactive particles to cross the Pacific from the power plants in Japan to big West Coast cities if the particles take a direct path and move at a speed of 20 mph:

Cities Est. Distance (miles) Est. Time to Cross Pacific (days)
Anchorage 3,457 7
Honolulu 3,847 8
Seattle 4,792 10
Los Angeles 5,477 11

Storm Surf

SOURCE

While my eyebrows have raised a bit, I am still not in a panic like some.
In order for the West Coast to be affected by a harmful amount of radiation, those plants would have to have a massive explosion and send all that radioactive material into the jet stream nearly 30,000ft

While it is OK to be cautious, some are panicking too much about the fallout reaching the West Coast.
There is a serious issue right now in Japan and those who are at a more serious risk right now, are those in Japan.

reply to post by rebeldog


I agree they have been downplaying the severity and they will most likely coverup as much as possible.
If I lived on the west coast I would take some precautions. Shoot, I'm in Georgia and already got my supply of IOSAT Iodide just incase.

reply to post by SMR


I agree, my prayers go out to them everyday.

reply to post by Deja`Vu

Japan has not been forthcoming and since the US sent in USAID I'm afraid I don't believe anything they tell me and will make my own judgement based upon past nuclear leakages and explosions.

Does this rule out the consumption of sushi? I am seriously thinking the fisheries are going to be hurt very very badly in that area....much fish caught in any of those places?? Rhetorical question.....pacific with this, atlantic with BP #....lets hope the fires that have been progressing towards the grain belt the past 5 years or so doesn't affect too much too soon after these....your food prices are going up even more now....

reply to post by Drala

The local Japanese fisheries don't really provide much for the world market. Most of what they export comes from far from their shores. I'd worry more about the mercury than the radiation.

somebody isn't playing the tapes.if they are using seawater as make-up water my question is irrevealant (steam),but if not, flooding the reactor or the pools will have water runoff which would be contaminated and the into the ocean! now how does that not affect the the us or any country on the pacific rim or the whole earth! close to two thirds of all ocean water is sitting there in the pacific . a rad map last night showed in michigan was 13 and today 15 hmm. i do understand weather map and patterns so some change expected! time to get right with the eternal creator all!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!