Libyan Rebel Strategy

Over the last couple of days I things just were not adding up to me. The rebels that just weeks ago looked like they were going to take control of the country very quickly, with a constant flow of defectors from the military and government it was looking like this was going to go down quickly.

Then the Gaddafi forces started to push back and take back ground. At first I thought it was understandable that young protestors, albeit energetic, were not that experienced and the defecting military personnel didn’t seem to be making any difference, so an army shouldn’t have that much problem rolling in and crushing protestors (even those with some AK’s).

At this point the media was calling Gaddafi’s forces superior (that in itself is a joke) and the rebels were retreating and starting to look desperate, calling for no-fly zones and the media calling them unorganized without any command structure.

I really started to wonder why the defecting forces were not counter striking , but rather in a defense mode that was steadily allowing Gaddafi’s forces to roll through town after town (as he thinned his forces out).

I kept waiting to hear stories about road side bombs or something to indicate that the rebels were maybe shifting to gorilla type warfare. That style worked fairly well against the US military in Iraq that is probably a 1000 times more equipped and capable than Gaddafi’s, but yet the towns went from rebel to Gaddafi green.

Finally today I see a report on Aljazeera’s Libyan Blog stating that the rebels have used Air assets to destroy Ships :

blogs.aljazeera.net...#

"4:30pm Anti-government activists said that rebels commanding fighter jets have destroyed two of Gaddafi's warships off the northeast coast of Ajdabiya.

The opposition also claimed to have hit a third naval ship in the air attack, according to opposition website Libya al-Youm.

A number of army generals and soldiers, particularly in the Libyan Air Force, have defected to join the rebels and have an arsenal of weapons and fighter jets at their disposal.

The alleged attack comes as Gaddafi's forces continue to battle for control of Ajdabiya and the nearby city of Brega in order to advance on to the opposition stronghold of Bengazi."


With Libya being mostly desert, were the rebels trying to thin out Gaddafi's forces further east so that they can use their limited resources to pick off his assets that stray from the herd, and give them a false sense of security? And are we going to see the defecting forces organize themselves and use a little tact.

I think the recent arest f several SAS soldiers by the rebels, as they tried to enter libya, is indicative of surrepticious help being offered to the rebels by several countries.
My suspicions run to the UK,France, and the USA.
Though other countries as well may be trying to help militarily on the sly.
The call by the rebels for a no-fly zone is in itself indicative of outside influence directing the rebel public relations effortsto some extent.
The Pro Ghadafi forces if really augmented by African mercinaries, have a 50/50 chance to win out.
The longer the rebels hold out without taking signifigantlosses of ground, the better the chances for intervention.Thye must show that they are worthy of the help provided, and that they are willing to pay for it with resources when they win.

It is interesting to hear that there is a concerted effort within the military towards revolution. The media has been almost non existent compared to the Egypt revolution and has been hard to gauge the public opinion. It does feel like Libya is becoming more of a battle ground between the US and Saudi Arabia after the call for a no fly zone and now the rebels are in the air. If Libya does fall to the rebels, then Saudi Arabia will be a lot more exposed and a greater push for revolution will take place there as well. Whatever happens may the people win and have their lives improved.

You know what really bugs me? We're so focused on Libya killing their citizens (which I believe is just a CIA coup on Gadhafi with a generous smear campaign), yet Saudi Arabia is sending in tanks and 1,000 troops to Bahrain to quell unrest.

Are we pushing for a no-fly zone over the Arabian Peninsula? Seems we have an agenda here.

Originally posted by kwakakev
Whatever happens may the people win and have their lives improved.

Most Afghani's will tell you they prefer Taliban rule over American rule. Same goes for Saddam and Iraq. Maybe the people would be better off with Gadhafi then they are with a pro-west elected leader. But that is assuming these atrocities being committed by 'Gadhafi' are really the master-work of the CIA/MI5/DGES.