Why I am not worried about Japan's nuclear reactors.

Why I am not worried about Japan's nuclear reactors.

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This post is by Dr Josef Oehmen, a research scientist at MIT, in Boston.

He is a PhD Scientist, whose father has extensive experience in Germany’s nuclear industry. I asked him to write this information to my family in Australia, who were being made sick with worry by the media reports coming from Japan. I am republishing it with his permission.

(visit the link for the full news article)

Mod Edit: Review This Link: Instructions for the Breaking News Forums: Copy The Exact Headline

This is his text in full and unedited. It is very long, so get comfy.

I am writing this text (Mar 12) to give you some peace of mind regarding some of the troubles in Japan, that is the safety of Japan’s nuclear reactors. Up front, the situation is serious, but under control. And this text is long! But you will know more about nuclear power plants after reading it than all journalists on this planet put together.

There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity.

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(visit the link for the full news article)

By “significant” I mean a level of radiation of more than what you would receive on – say – a long distance flight, or drinking a glass of beer that comes from certain areas with high levels of natural background radiation.

I have been reading every news release on the incident since the earthquake. There has not been one single (!) report that was accurate and free of errors (and part of that problem is also a weakness in the Japanese crisis communication). By “not free of errors” I do not refer to tendentious anti-nuclear journalism – that is quite normal these days. By “not free of errors” I mean blatant errors regarding physics and natural law, as well as gross misinterpretation of facts, due to an obvious lack of fundamental and basic understanding of the way nuclear reactors are build and operated. I have read a 3 page report on CNN where every single paragraph contained an error.

We will have to cover some fundamentals, before we get into what is going on.

Full Story:
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reply to post by ckno1

so get comfy

I don't think I will waste my time reading a whole heap of speculation actually. They kept saying things were fine right up until the first reactor blew, and things just kept escalating from there, this stuff is very unpredictable. Or did I miss the revelation where they got that all under control? Is fallout still a threat?

Originally posted by ckno1

There was and will *not* be any significant release of radioactivity.

was not and will not*

Dont intend to be nitpicky, but that seemed like an important typo.

This headline doesn't inspire enough fear to be categorized as "accurate" on ATS. But thanks for the link! I really hope for the best for the people of Japan. I'd rather this situation cool down and the speculation and excitement be for nothing than for the opposite to happen.

How do you reconcile the person basing conclusions without being there and carrying out any test themselves especially in light of their own critical condemnations of the reporting process by the Japanese Government?

How does a guy sitting in Boston, do more than flatter his own ego and attempt to enhance his reputation and stature by writing a piece devoid of any the scientific studies he is claiming his scientific mind is more capable of rendering an accurate assessment of, from 15,000 miles away, and totally out of the loop.

Whether you call it wishful thinking or denial, I call it shameless self agrandizing with a calous level of indifference to those who are actually involved and in the loop.

Time tells all, and it shall.

reply to post by ProtoplasmicTraveler


Generally the laws of Physics and Chemistry are the same all across earth, hence our ability to predict and explain phenomenon that occurs thousands of miles away. Of course you are right with the fact that this individual is not in Japan or close to the issue, but simultaneously he has a sound understanding of nuclear physics, and thus can paint a good picture (but probably not 100 percent accurate) as to what is happening in the nuclear reactors in Japan.

Of course you can continue to question and fear everything, only choosing to believe the worst of news, in which case radiation may be the least of your health fears.

reply to post by For(Home)Country


Yes and common sense is common sense every where on earth.

Brain surgery is pretty much the same every where on earth, however if you need a brain operation I would suggest consulting the physician in person so like he can see your brain, as opposed to asking from ten thousand miles away to diagnose your condition and plan the operation without any actual real data.

I doubt a brain surgeon would even consider attempting such a thing without examining the patient himself, even though brain surgery is brain surgery.

Thankfully this is just a little iddy bitty nuclear reactor this scientist has never been too, worked on or is aware even remotely what the precise conditions inside the plant are, while at the same time lambasting the reporting from it for innacuracies?

You might want to try defending common sense before common science.

Some would argue there is a science to common sense, there is no science at all involved with this man's opinion other than he has one as a scientist based on NO first hand knowledge of the situation.

Common sense says ignore!

The world could do in fact with a lot more common sense and a bit less science, since obviously it does seem to get away from those who imagine they have mastered it.

Case in point the situation in Japan.

reply to post by For(Home)Country


Granted the laws of science remain the same whether he is in Boston or in Japan, but it's not like he's being supplied raw data from the plants themselves. Okay, he's an expert in the field, but he's no more or less qualified than any of the other experts who have been sounding off about this situation - whether they are painting a positive or a negative picture.

Only the people who are on the ground at the plants can really determine what may or may not happen, but even they can't be certain. Someone on the other side of the planet who thinks they can be certain what will or will not happen?

And OP, you might want to use the quote or external source tags. A lot of your posts are actually quotes from the link but are not referenced as such.

You should rename you thread as "OMG ! STUNNING NEWS, NUCLEAR FALSE FLAG, THE SHOCKING LIE ! JOURNALIST CONSPIRACY".

Then you'll get something like 100+ S&F and people would read your paper.

When you're posting on ATS, quit trying to be reasonnable, people here only listen to fearmongers, they'll tell you that they do not want the worse to happen and thus try to prevent it by acting like it's already happening but don't fall for it, those guys have a hard-on everytime the earth cough.

Originally posted by BobbyTarass
You should rename you thread as "OMG ! STUNNING NEWS, NUCLEAR FALSE FLAG, THE SHOCKING LIE ! JOURNALIST CONSPIRACY".

Then you'll get something like 100+ S&F and people would read your paper.

When you're posting on ATS, quit trying to be reasonnable, people here only listen to fearmongers, they'll tell you that they do not want the worse to happen and thus try to prevent it by acting like it's already happening but don't fall for it, those guys have a hard-on everytime the earth cough.

haha I was thinking the same thing really.

reply to post by ckno1


Reports are dominated by fear-mongers on one side and damage control on the other.

Our job here at ATS is to sort through the bull puckey on BOTH sides.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of the culture of fear permeating the both the mainstream media and the fringe media in different ways. And I am a bit of a catastrophiliac(tm). I just think this post is simply a knee-jerk reaction, and no more or less based in fact than any of the other reports. It just happens to be a positive outlook rather than a negative one.

I flagged the post for the sake of balance (although OP you should add some ext or quote tags, most of your posts are actually lifted from the link) I just think the opinion is no more or less grounded in fact (despite how detail heavy the post is) than any of the MSM reports.

I also think the fact that none of us have the real info straight from the power plant - including those reporting in the media - makes it difficult to conclude how dangerous the situation truly is.

EDIT: Well said soficrow.

This is a load of speculation and crap...I work for an emergency management agency in a state with many nuclear facilities. Our facility was federally funded after sept 11 and has several different emergency related agencies including military...I cant say exact amount nuclear plants,because then you could find out where I work. We have a command center that is for the nuclear power plants located in my building. This facility has devices throughout the state and country that can detect radioactive particles in the atmosphere. Now, I am allowed in this area, but friday the area was on full lock down and they brought in security and nuclear commission people. Now this facility would only be activated given a threat to the united states of a radiological event. There is also a secure room that was I am never allowed in was also busy. This room has secure phone lines to Washington.

My building is one of the safest buildings in the Midwest. It is protected from gamma radiation with a metal mesh around the building. I'm not trying to stir up something here but the only time I see this room activated is for training exercises and they train on nuclear winter, nuclear meltdown that results in releases, and even strong solar flare activity. All this seems interesting to me that things were activated he because of japan. That much I do know because one of my coworkers who is a earthquake expert was called in to the area to talk about the type of quake

To those discounting what this man has written, you are THE reason there are not more nuclear power plants in operation in the US and elsewhere. Your "man animal" tendencies to discount scientific FACT rather than listen to someone who actually knows what the chuck they're talking about just shows that "man animals" will continue to stifle this world with their ignorance. It doesn't matter what the subject, the bottom line will always be innate fear of what your "man animal" brain cannot comprehend.

reply to post by LearnToSw1m


Interesting thought, but the description the man has given is largely based on theory and pre-event-thought or speculation. Chernobyl melted down, so fact there supports concern, and they were sure they had all the scientific facts in order. The problem with science being the god, and preparation based on science being the god is variables are not really measurable at the time as you can only work with what is known to be known and "unknown" and nothing beyond that. This quake looks to be 9.1, if they are telling the truth, so the prep was for something well below the actual event, once that happens the rules don't apply in the same way.

While what he has written is a good explanation of the prep, things go out the window when stuff goes down. Anyone who has ever done anything at all knows this. An oft heard phrase is "I prepared for every contingency and then this happened and I didn't know what to do." In the world of PR damage and control, people measure what they think should be said and what should not - based on little more than fear. So the ground level reported facts are probably half truths, and incomplete reports by design. Only those there, right on the spot, will know and those of us who watch and wait will never know the truth and will only know the official story at the end.

Being Japan, a funny quirk might be in order. We may know what happened by those who immediately resign or take the ultimate one for the team.

Originally posted by BobbyTarass
You should rename you thread as "OMG ! STUNNING NEWS, NUCLEAR FALSE FLAG, THE SHOCKING LIE ! JOURNALIST CONSPIRACY".

Then you'll get something like 100+ S&F and people would read your paper.

When you're posting on ATS, quit trying to be reasonnable, people here only listen to fearmongers, they'll tell you that they do not want the worse to happen and thus try to prevent it by acting like it's already happening but don't fall for it, those guys have a hard-on everytime the earth cough.

I'm not into sensationalism myself, unless of course something warrants the use of poignant language to describe what is really a dramatic event. The only way to avoid this would be to change the language to report on the event. For example "two plane crashes into a building in NYC this morning and some people died". Nothing to sensational there hey? That was just a description of the 9/11 attacks, obviously it doesn't do the issue justice for what was a tragic event.

I have to ask, what are you doing on this forum? Why be here if the theme of the place with regard to conspiracy and speculating on events that warrant concern with potential adverse consequences such as the nuclear reactors in Japan, if it goes against your values or beliefs or way of seeing things? I would rather invest my energies in something else more personally meaningful than be continually confronted with things that elicit feelings of cynicism and frustration.

Just found this via twitter and thought it was a good read. Although I'm still unsure of how much the writer understands about what's actually happened and is still happening in Japan, he does at least explain a lot about the way reactors work and their safety measures. And now that days have passed since this started, I'm hoping he's right and that the worst has passed. I even feel a lot less concerned about the venting of steam that's been done since before the explosion.

It's not that long of a read either, and is worth spending a bit of time going through if you're still worried about what's happening but don't know much about reactors.

reply to post by surrealist


(Considering your exemple about 9/11, I'd say it's how it should have been shown the first time, because that's what journalism is : giving an information, clearly. Interpretation of the information should come later).

Well, I'm not fond of doing useful things, there are already tons of people fighting for great causes, why would I join them ?
Plus, I don't like to preach among my peers.

Actually I'm cool with my little insignificant crusade, so here I am, trying to counterbalance people spouting nonsence on ATS, linking articles from websites that are as serious as a Monty Python movie, jumping the shark, going nuts over insignificant things and trying to put a conspiration on every subject they come across. Pretending to know something on a subject while the only thing they did was reading wikipedia or ATS.
I may be a bother but I am a necessary one, because while you guys are trying to decypher the news, I'm trying to decypher your decyphering of the news.

See it as the quote from Watchmen : "who watch the watchmen".

And if, at the end of the day, there is one guy who realise how stupid some of these conclusions are, I'd be happy.

That's what I am, a nice guy disguised as a terrible troll.