Is Japan At Risk Of Another Great Quake?

One thing that stood out to me during all the commentary when the 8.9 quake struck, was Japan's Prime Minister issuing a warning that there may be another large quake imminent.

I just saw this article and I wonder if this is what he was referring to?

It's called the "Great Tokai Earthquake" - a predicted disaster southwest of Tokyo that Japan has spent trillions of yen preparing for, based on the inexact science of predicting earthquakes.

But Friday's 8.9-magnitude quake happened in a completely different subduction zone - where two oceanic plates collide. So is Japan still at risk for another great quake?

Since 1976, the quake-prone country has warned its citizens about the possibility of an 8.0 quake off the coast of Shizuoka prefecture, located about 100 miles (160 km) southeast of Tokyo. Friday's quake was centered offshore some 230 miles (373 km) northeast of Toyko.

The release of energy from Friday's event – which happened along the subduction zone between the Eurasian and North American plates - will have have no effect on alleviating the pressure building up between Eurasian and Philippine plates, where the Great Tokai quake is predicted to happen.

So after Japan picks up the pieces from this disaster, it will have to start preparing for what could be another one.

Read the full article: HERE


In the below map you can see the fault where the 8.9 occured to the NE of Tokyo, and the fault that they have long feared to manifest a mega quake, to the SE of Tokyo. Also note how the after shocks are migrating South.






Mods, if there is already a thread on this, please dispose of this one. I searched but did not find anything. I feel it worthy of highlighting the info in it's own area due to the ramification were this fault to also produce a mega quake at this time. Not only is Japan already devastated and vulnerable, but there are five nuclear reactors in a state of emergency there right now. Not to mention the risk of another tsunami being generated.

I pray this quake does not materialize and I have not read or seen any information indicating that there are signs it will. This is for awareness and information purposes only.

Well, I'd say most definitely they are, and I have been saying this for days on the 7.2 thread.

See that little quake on the bottom right? That was a 4.9 at 24.9 km depth. Almost every single one of the quakes occurring on the right side of, or on the zone line share a common depth, including that 4.9. They are all within a very focused, similar depth. Only the 7.1 was shallower, at 19 km.

But if there is any pattern to this at all, what happened last time the quakes jumped the zone line boundary? When there was the original 7.2 and its subsequent aftershocks, they were all pretty contained in that one area. But then all of a sudden they started appearing on the right side of the line. Just a few smaller ones. And then.... 8.9 back in the same area as the 7.2.

So what I am suggesting is that little 4.9 may be a clue as to what's about to happen very close to where the guy in the article is saying- near the juncture point of the plates, but probably further towards shore. That 5.3 ( the most southern quake on the left side of the line) is also at the same focused depth, directly opposite the 4.9. So if the composition down there is consistent, this could mean a quake about to happen, maybe more shallow, right in that area.

Ahhh junk science.. I know nothing. Just guessing.

reply to post by TrueAmerican


Thanks for the input, you know a lot more about the area than I do. Here's to hoping nothing else develops. That's the last thing they need at the nuclear plants.

I appreciate you starting this thread Westcoast. I got family there. Some in Tokyo and others scattered all around Japan and outlying islands. I don't speak Japanese or island dialects well enough to try and track everyone down but my parents have been trying to reach a few people and had no luck so far. But we expect they are okay since nobody we know was living in the worst hit areas. We just hope they weren't visiting those places or on business there.

This is the first disaster reported on ATS where I have kin trying to contact other kin. Now I know how other ATSers have felt being in a similar position and it's a sickening feeling. I can't even bring myself to post on the main Japan quake threads. I've been posting everywhere tonight but on those threads.

If Tokyo gets hit, I might lose a really awesome uncle I haven't seen since I was a teenager. I'm so numb I can't even pray for them all right now. I appreciate there are people here who are. I don't know what else to say. I hope to Heaven they don't get another quake and certainly not near Tokyo. But I appreciate you keeping an eye on this region and I hope this thread stays open. I may not post here again but I will be paying attention to it.

And of course I remain vigilant on your other threads. I'm very concerned about what could be happening here on our home turf and with you good people in the midwest and west coast. God bless and keep you all safe as you watch those volcanoes and quake zones that are too close for comfort.

I see that some people are starting to come around and questioning the possibility that the aftershocks are possibly more than just aftershocks. So I am bumping this thread.

reply to post by westcoast


I don't think they are more than just aftershocks.

I won't repost this as it is against the T & C to copy so here is the link to my graph in another thread.

www.abovetopsecret.com...

French and German embassies are telling French/German residents to leave the Tokyo region asap and for about a week. And they encourage people to delay their trips to Japan/Tokyo.

After reading this, and all the rumours about another quake like Friday`s , if not a worse one and centred in Tokyo ...it gets scarier and scarier. With every after shock, there is the fear that it`s going to be another big one again...

I don`t want to leave the house anymore.

There was something on one of the news channels I was watching this morning that kind of surprised me. I had just woken up so forgive me for being somewhat vague ... (not at my best first thing when my son was up for a large part of the night).

He commented on Japan expecting another 7+ quake within the next couple of days and another tsunami.
Not an aftershock, but another fresh quake.
Just a thought as I know very little about the hows and whys of earthquakes but here goes.

If Plate A hits Plate B causing Plate B to rise above Plate A .... does this mean that Plate B is still sat ontop of Plate A or did they both then slide back to similar level ?
I am just thinking that the 2nd quake they are refering to could be Plate B coming back off Plate A.

.... Now how confusing was that question :/

What they are saying here is to be careful of another big one between 3 and 5 days after the one on Friday. Now, how they can know this, I don`t know.

Or maybe they do know what will happen exactly. But if it were so, they would have put more alerts and prepared more emergency plans....Don`t know. Just have to wait and see, I suppose.

The article mentioned that the 8.9 quake would NOT relieve any pressure on the other one (the great Tokai quake),so I do not think it would have moved it...but I really don't know.

Puterman...you are probably right (I hope)...but it just seems the Japanese are concerned about it.

This quake here makes me a bit worried. It is right on the faultline of the Phillippine plate, the one of concern.....

Magnitude 5.1
Date-Time Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 13:16:31 UTC
Sunday, March 13, 2011 at 10:16:31 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 34.339°N, 141.625°E
Depth 23 km (14.3 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 217 km (134 miles) NE of Hachijo-jima, Izu Islands, Japan
219 km (136 miles) SE of Yokohama, Honshu, Japan
226 km (140 miles) SE of TOKYO, Japan
247 km (153 miles) SSE of Mito, Honshu, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 6.1 km (3.8 miles); depth +/- 20.3 km (12.6 miles)
Parameters NST=156, Nph=156, Dmin=216.1 km, Rmss=0.88 sec, Gp=115°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=7
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usc00021rj


Look at this MAP and you will see it is the blue square on the 'red line' (Phillippine fault) to the SE of Tokyo...the one they are expecting the big quake from.

Just a heads up WestCoast, this guy was doing a phone interview on the BBC on Friday right after the quake, and he siad that he had reason to believe that the current quake was not "the big one" but a precursor to it. Now I have been trying to find the interview in question, but I haven't turned it up yet.

Can anyone help me find it please?

He is an expert in this field, so if what he said comes to pass, well I don't even want to think of the consequences...

If another large quake occurs I can't imagine what will happen with all
the power plants that have not been effected as of yet. The last
few days I have been doing more reading than posting, I just
feel speechless most of the time, I am so leary of reports - so
many are conflicting.

reply to post by AmatuerSkyWatcher


Yes...this seems to be surfacing among MSM more here today, with 'scientistis' chiming in now, about possible larger quakes possible. I don't think they would expect it to be larger than the 8.9, but let's be serious here. Anything significant at this point close to Tokyo would be devestating. The original quake alone is capable of aftershocks larger than 7.0, combine that with the very real threat from the OTHER fault nearer to Tokyo and it is just a very scary place to be right now.

Then there is the on-going and potentially greater risk of tsunamis for everyone on the pacific rim.

And...lastly my own subduction zone...but that is for another thread. (see my washington state thread)

Once again I appreciate your vigilance. My mom finally heard from at least one relative, my uncle in Tokyo. He said even there, phone service was spotty and he had trouble getting through and had to travel to a friend's house to get phone service. And just think, Tokyo was relatively unaffected at this time. He said every thing else was running okay. Food was available, other services were stable. I wasn't part of the conversation so I couldn't ask how widespread the communication outages are. My mom says even if she didn't hear directly from everyone, all have been accounted for and are doing okay. I haven't told my mom it's possible Tokyo might get hit with a large quake. She and my dad have just battled cancer. They are almost to the point of having to think about moving to assisted living or a retirement community. I'll just keep this particular worry to myself.

I sincerely hope this isn't proving to be true...as you can tell by the date of my OP is what I have feared since this all began.


Magnitude 6.1
Date-Time Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 13:31:46 UTC
Tuesday, March 15, 2011 at 10:31:46 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 35.322°N, 138.552°E
Depth 1 km (~0.6 mile) set by location program
Region EASTERN HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 36 km (22 miles) S of Kofu, Honshu, Japan
37 km (22 miles) NW of Numazu, Honshu, Japan
42 km (26 miles) NNE of Shizuoka, Honshu, Japan
116 km (72 miles) WSW of TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 12.4 km (7.7 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST=364, Nph=368, Dmin=139.1 km, Rmss=0.71 sec, Gp= 40°,
M-type=teleseismic moment magnitude (Mw), Version=A
Source USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)


Event ID usc00023fx


SOURCE


Note the depth? If they don't change it, that is incredibly shallow, and right near that fault line, not to mention Fuji and Tokyo.....God help them.

There is a large (5+) VERY drawn out signature coming across GEE right now.....stay tuned

reply to post by westcoast


This quake is STILL going....10 minutes and counting. Just now tapering off.....WOW. This is not a good sign.


ETA:

USGS is calling it a 5.7 But it is STILL going!!!

Magnitude 5.7
Date-Time Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 06:12:42 UTC
Thursday, March 17, 2011 at 04:12:42 PM at epicenter

Location 37.755°N, 143.451°E
Depth 25 km (15.5 miles)
Region OFF THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances 232 km (144 miles) ESE (103°) from Sendai, Honshu, Japan
238 km (148 miles) ENE (70°) from Iwaki, Honshu, Japan
262 km (163 miles) E (89°) from Fukushima, Honshu, Japan
403 km (251 miles) NE (54°) from TOKYO, Japan

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 19.3 km (12.0 miles); depth +/- 0.3 km (0.2 miles)
Parameters NST= 91, Nph= 92, Dmin=474.2 km, Rmss=0.87 sec, Gp=122°,
M-type="moment" magnitude from initial P wave (tsuboi method) (Mi/Mwp), Version=7
Source U.S. Geological Survey, National Earthquake Information Center:
World Data Center for Seismology, Denver

Event ID usc00024yp



Screen shot to come.

SOURCE

This is NOT good guys....another LARGER signature coming across now. The other one has been going for almost fifteen minutes of CONSTANT movement. This is seriously scary....


ETA....this larger one now is further south.....I hope it isn;t on the other plate and the whole thing is about to go.

Here is a screen shot. I had to take one even though it is STILL going, becuase it was going off the screen. I have NEVER seen this before. It is one constant rumble...a BIG rumble...not a good sign at ALL. I'll bet the alert is going out to the public.....






The top station is SW of Tokyo, the others are the one to the North of the activity. You can see there was the build up to a 5.7 in the North and then a very prolonged signal, another quake around the same size further than the south and now more prolonged movement. It is still going.,....

26 minutes and counting...I'll get another screen shot in a bit.