Are the Protests Organic or Manufactured? A Guideline

This is a question I'm sure everyone here has asked themselves. "What in the world is going on? Are these protests organic or are they manufactured?" I decided to consult my Sociology textbook in search of this answer. What I came up with was a list of things we can investigate in order to come up with an answer. I will try and relate them the best I can.

Social Revolution

A social revolution involves the overthrow of a society's state and class structures and the creation of new social arrangements.
The above is the text's definition of revolt. After looking through the pages for quite some time I was never able to find reference to any sort of widespread revolt. Either this is a first or it is uncommon. In any event, there is a list of circumstances normally present during revolt...

A good deal of political power is concentrated in the state, so there is a centralized governing apparatus. Accordingly, the state can become the focus for collective anger and attack.

Here I think this will apply to every nation experiencing widespread rebellion and upheaval.

The military's allegiance to the established regime is weakened so that the army is no longer a reliable tool for suppressing domestic disorder. The unreliability of the Army increases the vulnerability of the state.

Now we know that this is not the case in Libya as the military is killing protesters under the orders of Ghadaffi. Most likely this will not be the case in North Korea either if things continue to escalate. The rest I am unsure about as I am wanting to get this out here before I start digging in on the specifics behind each protest.

Political crises--often associated with long-term international conflicts that result in military defeat--weaken the existing regime and contribute to the collapse of the state apparatus.

On its face I was thinking that this could apply to every state experiencing unrest, as it could be argued that Western regional influence has caused suffering throughout the region. But I don't think this applies to Bahrain. Bahrain is home to America's 5th Naval Fleet and is very "westernized" in comparison to the rest of the region. They have a thriving economy.

A substantial segment of the population must mobilize in uprisings that bring a new elite to power." This is something that definitely needs further analysis. I'm interested in what constitutes a "substantial segment of the population

I know that in some of these cases these protests only numbered in the hundreds. Perhaps a ratio comparison between number of protesters in Egypt vs. number of protesters in Libya vs. population totals for both nations??


Natural History of Revolutions

Sociologists and Historians have done extensive studies on Western revolutions in search of a common theme of events surrounding the event and have formulated a "Natural History of Revolutions." This is another list of things to look for common during these events. For this list I will just quote the entire paragraph of text. This entire thing needs further analysis. I am just putting the info out there in the hopes that others will help undertake the research. This is quite a lot to juggle and I'm jumping quite far ahead in class to do this. haha

Prior to the revolution, intellectuals--journalists, poets, playwrights, essayists, lawyers, and others--withdraw support from the existing regime and demand major reforms. Under increasing attack, the state attempts to meet the criticisms by instituting a number of reforms (e.g., the reforms of Louis XVI in France). The onset of the revolution is heralded by a weakening or paralysis of the state, usually brought on by the government's inability to deal with a major military, economic, or political problem. The collapse of the old regime brings to the forefront divisions among conservatives who attempt to minimize change, radicals who seek fundamental change, and moderates who try to steer a middle course. Coups or civil war often ensue. The first to gain the reins of power are usually moderate reformers.

At first glance I see things that do fit and those that do not. Egyptian officials tried to meet the criticisms of the dissidents by instituting reforms, but this happened on the same day the regime toppled. Odd. (that entire chain of events was odd.) Weakening or paralysis of the state? Not in Bahrain. Once again, this doesn't fit the bill.

In any event, one could get a clearer understanding of the nature of these protests possibly by looking at these two lists and seeing if the nations under protest fit the mold cast by previous revolutionary efforts.

There is however, another option. One that has been touched upon here and will not be covered in any sociological textbook. This is something that would be considered entirely new. Entirely new if Karl Marx had not commented on it 100 years ago. Then he was speaking mostly of capitalism, but I think it applies everywhere. "Marx contended that the capitalist drive to realize surplus value is the foundation of modern class struggle--an irreconcilable clash of interests between workers and capitalists. As Marx put it, capitalists are thieves who steal the fruit of the laborer's toil."
Is it that the internet has helped these people to see this simple truth and the result is a sweeping revolution based on the sudden emergence of class consciousness in these regions?

I dunno, but I'm gonna start crunching numbers.
Happy hunting!

Ed: The textbook quoted is Sociology, The Core, 9th Edition. Michael Hughes and Carolyn J. Kroehler

Every western and middle eastern country has economic problems and has some of the best chances of revolution. Johnson was right, the domino theory was correct

Originally posted by JayinAR"Marx contended that the capitalist drive to realize surplus value is the foundation of modern class struggle--an irreconcilable clash of interests between workers and capitalists. As Marx put it, capitalists are thieves who steal the fruit of the laborer's toil."
Is it that the internet has helped these people to see this simple truth and the result is a sweeping revolution based on the sudden emergence of class consciousness in these regions?

I'm feeling it and I'm calling it organic. Unions are "bad" but Globalism is "good"? LoL! Whatever. The house of cards is coming down.

reply to post by kosmicjack


I don't know. It is definitely interesting. If this is organic it is unprecidented, near as I can tell. A lot of the expected themes are not at play in the particular countries experiencing protests. My gut wants to say this is organic, but I cannot be sure.

Thanks, btw.

reply to post by kosmicjack


I'm glad that you mentioned the Unions though. HAHA! Yeah, that is certainly ironic. Failed to realize we are experiencing our own protests right here at home. With police getting involved and everything. Great stuff! I hope on the one hand that you are right and the house is coming down. But on the other I hope that the lingering doubt I have about this being a manufactured event is wrong. In any event, further analysis will help to figure this out, I think.

reply to post by JayinAR


"Is it that the internet has helped these people to see this simple truth and the result is a sweeping revolution based on the sudden emergence of class consciousness in these regions?"

Well, maybe. But it would be very interesting to know exactly how many people are wired in a region where the average wage is two dollars a day or so.Wouldn't that put them in a 'class' above the majority of their nation?

Personally, I feel the net is actually allowing the more prosperous to make choices that affect the vast majority, and allowing them to make choices that are ultimately going to benefit themselves more than the true common worker. I've said it before and will again: these twitter/facebook revolutions have the potential to draw throngs of clueless band-wagon jumpers and feed a certain mob mentality.

My opinion on an interesting topic, s&f.

Edit to add:my vote is for slightly manufactured...or at least utilizing a little 'join the party' atmosphere to boost numbers and 'support'..

Well how would NWO occur by 2012, with the world carved up into the 4 blocks they talk of, if this dismantling didn't start to happen/

Not that I don't want people free from dictatorship, and in fact, we need to wake up and start to do things for each other out of Love, which would bring more good in, and envision paradise and equality and transparency in all affairs, counsels of ciitzens running things, because our consciousness affects outcome.

reply to post by Clark Savage Jr.


Ah, precisely. This is where I was wondering about the "substantial number of the nation's population" rising up against the state. If this is truly an internet uprising than you would expect the number of people in protest to be quite low.

news.sky.com...

I took this link from another thread here on ATS. It shows an interactive map of the middle east and gives detail on why the upheavals are taking place. Of course these are just rough figures and explanations, but my first question was, as stated, the numbers of protesters vs. the number of people in the countries.
I chose to start with Egypt. 84.5 million people populate Egypt. The number of protesters numbered into the 15,000 range.
If I'm not mistaken this makes the number of protesters in Egypt number a very small fraction of 1%.

Interesting...

Originally posted by JayinAR
Are these protests organic or are they manufactured?"

Call me a cynic, but I have a tough time believing they are organic. That being said, cui bono? The Chinese?

reply to post by JohnnyCanuck


The revolutionary in me wants to believe they are organic. However, the "learned" man in me wants to believe that it is the "evil ____" doing this. (fill in the blank)

At this point it is impossible to point a finger. I want to figure out if they are natural or not, first and foremost.