Armageddon for Home-Owners?

12 Facts That Show We're in the Midst of the Worst Housing Collapse in US History

We are officially in the middle of the worst housing collapse in U.S. history - and unfortunately it is going to get even worse. Already, U.S. housing prices have fallen further during this economic downturn (26 percent), then they did during the Great Depression (25.9 percent). Approximately 11 percent of all homes in the United States are currently standing empty. www.alternet.org...

It's not getting any better, people.

In some places, like entire towns are closed up. I don't know about elsewhere, but in the Atlanta area, there are tons of brand new homes standing empty, in some cases entire subdivisions, despite builders' efforts to slash (and I mean slash) prices. It's kind of creepy to see the empty subdivisions, in some cases for years now. People don't want to buy where there are ghost homes. Or, if they are fortunate to be able to buy, they will pick up a brand new home for dirt cheap, which makes it even more dismal for existing home sellers. Everyone's just waiting it out as best they can.

Number 4 on this list of 12 indicators it that the number of homes actually repossessed reached the 1 million mark for the first time ever during 2010.

Number 7 is that at least 8 million Americans are at least one month behind on their mortgage payments.

Number 8 is that there are about 5 million more Americans at least two months behind on their mortgages and it's projected that another one million American will be booted out of their homes in 2011.

Number 11, according to Zillow, home prices have already fallen further during this economic downturn (26 percent) than they did during the Great Depression (25.9 percent)

And with the unemployment situation, it doesn't look like this is going to turn around anytime soon.

This is never going to bounce back. Overall, a mind-boggling article.

reply to post by ~Lucidity


whats the average sale price of one of those empty homes approx?

reply to post by Avocado2012

Most of the subdivisions around here, the prices started out in about the $450s and have been reduced to around the $250s. Clearly inflated to begin with, I'd say. I imagine the banks own a lot of them now.

$1,000??

detroit.cbslocal.com...

it's not helping that our federal and state lawmakers are on the banks payroll.
virginia had a few laws that were under consideration that would have helped.
make it harder for banks to foreclose, make it so the homes and mortgage information had to be registered properly in the proper local gov't offices, ect...
and well, they all got sent into oblivion...or well, some committee, to sit idle till death!!

www.totalmortgage.com...

www.businessweek.com...

A friend of mine tells me that a new order for 118 homes went in recently.

Don't you think that would stop if there was a big problem?

reply to post by dawnstar

Insanity.

You know, it's funny, I almost mentioned Detroit as an example of the "entire towns" becoming empty but was too lazy too look that up to verify it. Thanks. That ties it very well.

You would think that having someone in a home would at least keep it alive and vibrant and that the banks who own a lot of these empty homes could work out some sort of living arrangements in exchange for caretaking for some of the displaced families. They pay for upkeep anyway?

reply to post by Jim Scott

I was going to mention this too. That there are some new homes still being built. In my immediate area, the county just spent over $1 million to restructure an intersection so that a new subdivision of over 400 homes could be built. At first they were to be in the $450K range on certain lot sizes, but now they've revamped that plan too. Totally mind numbing. Someone's betting a lot on that one.

Yes...you would think...but it seems to depend on what they believe demand in a particular area is for homes in a particular price range.

reply to post by dawnstar


As for house pricing - yes, it could decline another 10% of so. but clearly time is playing a factor in all of this.
as well has supply and demand. those that were forced out due to job loss, financial over extension, the sky will never fallers.... well, I judge such issues as to Creditability --- and the administration is almost out of creditability.
so a double dip is less likely - because if they lose all creditability a Revolution would ensue immediately.... and we are no where near revolution in this counrty.... you will know we are close when you start seeing unwashed little children, hungry children with their hands out stretched, thank god we are not there.... if you thank Obama - I will personally assault you~~ na just joking.

I'm non violent - but people who think they can get one by me - from time to time try and pay the price...
I'm an American, Don't Tread On Me~! you wont like the price, I will extract.

reply to post by ~Lucidity

the banks aren't even going through the whole foreclosure process on some of them, they go far enough to get the people out, but then stall out. the owner of the house is finding themselves without the house, but still owing the property tax.....
they made the money on the loans in many different ways. they sold them in the form of cdos...sometimes more than once! then they bet against the cdos... then well, there was those lovely bailouts to help them out!!
they don't need to make money on the house, they've made plenty already. and they don't want to incur any more cost keeping it, so well, they go far enough to get the people out, and that's it. I bet the city is ending up with alot of them because of tax defaults, and that's where detriot is getting these $1,000 homes from.

I have been debating others about this for a while now. Everyone just parrots the "Oh it goes through cycles all the time, it will come back up" argument. Simple math, when prices are high, interest rates are lowered to stimulate buying. When house prices are low, interest rates are high. This is because the bank makes its money regarldess of the house prices. Rates vs price are inversely proportional, therefore house prices fluctuate, based on the interest rates. What's occuring now is unprecedented. House prices are low, and the interest rate is low and still no one is buying. No one that has purchased in the last 10 years has any equity, so even if it was possible to sell their current home, they don't have anything for a downpayment, unless they have been saving for the last 10 years. Prices will continue to drop, I don't think a recovery is any time soon.

reply to post by ISRAELdid911


the only ones I will thank for any glimmer of hope that shows itself would be the american people who keep on trudging along, even after those in office, be they republicans or democrats...quickly run to extinguish that small glimmer!!
Both parties have lost my favor....

reply to post by dawnstar


Ah...that explains a few things. It's complicated, isn't it? I hear in some cases it takes years from them to evict a homeowner (like that woman in Florida) and in other cases it seems to happen virtually overnight.

All this makes me wonder about the whole squatters' rights issue. Wonder if we'll ever get to the point where homes are entirely abandoned and people just move right in and take over. What a mess.

reply to post by ~Lucidity


You know, I have to wonder about all this...
Who deserves the blame more, the banks or the people?
The banks because they made enormous amounts of $$ selling loans?
Or the people for buying into homes beyond their budget?

First off, I believe we live in a country filled with over-indulgence.
Buying things we don't need, or buying things that are 'better' than yours...(keepin up with the jones)
So when I see someone getting a $450k loan for a house that:
A. Isn't worth the value
B. Is entirely too large for the owners needs.
C. Takes up 60% of their income.
I see problems.

Sure I can blame banks for all eternity, but when you boil it down...
It's the people who make the decisions to go into debt over it.

It's not like the banks hold guns to their heads and forces them to buy homes they can't afford.


Either way, we just need to get over our indulgent lifestyle and back to necessity.
Buy what you need and what you can afford.

Not what you lust over or go eye-ball deep in debt for.

There's more to life than impressing others.

This is a market correction.

I can understand those who purchased their homes when they were vastly over priced would think that the bottom has dropped out.

This is a PUMP & DUMP scheme and we are witnessing the Dump side right now.

Think this through.

What is the TRUE value of the Lot the home is built upon ?
$30,000 ? $40,000, more, or is it in reality much, much less.

At $30,000 for one third acre lot puts the land value at $90,000 per acre. Come on who in their right mind would pay $90,000 per acre for subdivision land? Subdivision land is not worth more than $10,000 per acre, so right off we have these people who are willing to pay 9 times its value, what are they thinking ?

Next is the construction cost. If you have the skills and time a lone person can construct a home start to finish for between $10 to $25 dollars a square foot. This puts the construction cost for a normal 1500 sgft home at $37,500. WHY would someone pay $75 to $150 dollars per sgft running the cost well in excess of $200,000 for something that cost less than $40,000 to build ?

What are the thinking ?

I did build my own home, I did 100% of all the work, I spent $37000 for 10 acres and had $25,000 in construction cost. I have a 1200 sgft home on 10 acres for $62,000.

Sure, not everyone can take the time or has the skills to do what I was able to accomplish.

BUT, Don’t over pay for a home and then say the market crashed when you can not get someone else to make the same mistake.

Home buying Rules:

1, Never, Ever pay over $10,000 for a home lot.

2. Material cost will not exceed $25 dollars a sgft for a NORMAL home. ADD 10% for a brick home.

3. Contractors usually work on the Cost plus basis. That is normally 12-15%. But watch this as the contractor raises the Cost so he raises his share.

4. Rule of thumb is Double the material cost, this will pay the labor. i.e. materials $100 labor is $100. Any more than that you are getting taken.

4. NEVER, EVER pay more than $53 dollars a sgft for the TOTAL cost of a normal home. Anything more and YOU have overpaid.

As you can see the Home Market is way over valued.

People are waking up and the Smart ones are refusing to over-pay for homes. It is getting harder to find people who are willing to OVER-Pay by three or Four times the TRUE value of a home.

reply to post by ~Lucidity


They (actions of both Clinton and GWB) enabled a lot of poor people to buy their own homes.
Unfortunately when the housing market readjusted to reflect actual rather than inflated values - all hell broke loose.
I say unfortunately as if this were some kind of accident. Financiers who instigated this inequity made a fortune bundling and selling this bad debt to China.
China and the American homeowner took the entire hit.
American capitalist took the entire profits.
Yeah Capitalism!!! This is how we do it.

Meanwhile, many folks had the rug yanked out from underneath them.
I am one of those who would not have qualified for a loan otherwise but by some miracle I got one in 2002. I saw my home value triple and I sold. If I had kept that money and walked away I might have been fine.

In 2006 I bought another house. I paid $218. I could not get $95G for the home today but that is because Florida is one of the hardest hit areas. Eventually the value will raise. Just as the home prices were artificially inflated I think now they are artificially deflated. Eventually some equilibrium will take hold. At that time I plan to dump this home and move to Costa Rica where we have already purchased property.

The housing market has at least stabilized but you are right that there is no building going on.
This is wonderful because where I am at here in Florida

The state localities take money from contractors hand over fist.
They allow forests and marshland to be taken and developed into housing communities
without any forethought or planning.
High rise condos going up on every square inch of Florida land with absolutely no consideration (actually they know and do not care)

HOW ARE ALL THESE PEOPLE GOING TO GET WATER AND ELECTRICITY?

2007-2008 we already were threatened with power and water shortages and sewer problems not to mention the one exit road and 2 lane highways that bottlenecked traffic everywhere and this is when the new places were not even half sold.

Another problem here in Florida that leaves new developments standing empty looking like ghost villages is one more additional example of American greed and why we should not rely on Capitalism to sustain us is the killer substance many people have already been exposed to..... Chinese drywall.

Since suits are still pending they can't tear them down.

I believe in Capitalism but think we should first map out...What do we need?
How much and where?

At least get the basics covered without killing unsuspecting Americans in their own homes.
Without the threat of NO INFRASTRUCTURE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT you have (and really without that your development is nothing more than a facade at Disney)

I am HAPPY they have quit building in this area.
Now maybe the street will handle the traffic, sewers will be able to handle the sewer, the water will be enough to go around and we won't have power shortages for a few years.

My husband owns a construction management company, so we're kind of holding our breaths right now, trying to budget and plan for the worst. We're still paying our mortgage on time---and this is our priority every month. Things could get very, very hard for us if things don't improve.

They say construction isn't coming back. It's over. For good. The world has turned toward informational type jobs, and have already built out the world. They say if people want to survive, they're going to have to learn to adapt and find jobs in health care and other industries where they are needed.

Hey, I lived in Atlanta more than 20 years ago at the crest of the building boom. They were slapping up mini mansions while you slept. You could buy a beautiful four bedroom home for a bit less than $100,000 then.

It's a different world now, isn't it?

reply to post by brokedown


Good for you! You know your stuff.
I come from an area in upstate NY - multi-cultural Italians Poles and Canadians mostly carpenters electricians and homebuilders. Everyone helped build each others home. 30 families or so all vacation at the same campground summers. We were close and lucky. My brother, my sister both had their homes built from the ground up by friends and family for $40-$60G. Nice homes! My nephew just now...paid $20G for property with a run down home on it that has to be almost totally scrapped. He has $30 to build a new house and they will do it.

Yours was such a great and well informed post I just had to compliment you on it.
That's what I'm talkin' about.

reply to post by havok


I don't think assigning blame is productive, but if I were forced to pick, I'd choose the people whose business it is and who really should have known better, coincidentally also the ones who got bailed out.

You might love this thread though if you haven't already seen it ...www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by MRuss

It is a very different world. People have learned their lessons. Then again people have learned lessons before and forgotten them quickly once a crisis has passed. It's probably going to come back eventually and slowly, but it will be a very, very long time, probably longer than you can wait it out, unfortunately, depending on which area of the country you're in (not sure how things might bounce back in NE, but down here it's looking dim). I feel for you guys. It's not easy losing your livelihood.

Those are definetly some staggering numbers to absorb. I wonder how many of those foreclosures are on homes that folks bought and tried to flip quick to make some bucks. Friend of mine's ex wife was into that. When TSHTF she was left holding I think six mortgages and no buyers all were foreclosed on. Went bankrupt lost everything and now a crackhead dating a convict. She was making good money for a while though.

All these banks were just playing with funny money. Bank makes loan and sells it to so and so who in turn bundles it up and sells it to investors who in turn buy derivitives and lose it. All done electronically so basically they were trading up money they never had then the fed comes in and fills the coffers and does nothing to stop it from happening again with their BS bill they passed. Now some of the banks who sold the loan are coming back trying to double dip and foreclose on folks to resell it again. That is why the rash of foreclosures and lies by the banks that forced the courts to say woooooaaah nellie.