Geomagnetic Storm Watch: Feb 3rd

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: FEB 3RD

spaceweather.com

GEOMAGNETIC STORM WATCH: NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 3rd. They say a high-speed solar wind stream and a CME could hit Earth's magnetic field on Wednesday--a double whammy almost certain to spark some degree of geomagnetic activity.

Mid-latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 60 % 35 %
MINOR 10 % 50 %
SEVERE 05 % 15 %


High latitudes 0-24 hr 24-48 hr
ACTIVE 60 % 20 %
MINOR 20 % 60 %
SEVERE 10 % 20 %

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Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Welcome to the shooting gallery: fireball incidence 2005:1.28/day 2011:4.94/day

Should be some pretty bright auroras down to the southern Canada/upper US, if the weather clears. Let's hope the magnetosphere isn't south when it hits (referring to the Bz). About the last thing we need right now would be having the power grid knocked offline by a smack from the sun...not very likely, but what with all the strangeness lately, it wouldn't surprise me overmuch.

Still, given the huge increase in fireballs (avg per day in 2005 =1.28, today = 5.1) recently, that's a lot of energy accumulating in the atmosphere; it's gotta have some effect.


spaceweather.com
(visit the link for the full news article)

Looks like it is from this CME

SOHO gif

Looks like a fairly large one

reply to post by Moose318


Yup, that's the puppy on the way.

I wondered at the time if it would hit...thanks for posting the video.

reply to post by apacheman


Is this the one from that coronal hole that was reported here yesterday afternoon ? Should be killer if so . I mean thats a LARGE disturbance on the sun, cant really hope to avoid a big effect when the particles hit our magnetosphere.

coronal hole reported on January 31 2011:

www.spaceweather.com...

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to active with a chance for a minor storm on day 1 (2 February) due to coronal hole effects along with intermittent periods of Bz south. On day 2 (3 February), unsettled to active conditions are forecast until the anticipated mid-day arrival of the CME from 30 January, when an isolated minor storm will become likely. Conditions on day 3 (4 February) are expected to be mostly unsettled to active as coronal hole effects begin to wane.

By itself, no big.

But how does it interact with the Groundhog Day snowstorm?

What effect will the 5 fireballs (avg per day so far this year) have on the weather? Thermal and sonic shocks just for starters.....

Gonna be an interesting next few days.

Heads up, btw...

pay attention.

I find it odd that so many non-earth-directed CMEs wind up actually having effects. Spaceweather is quick to state in absolutes that a particular CME will NOT have an effect because it is not directly pointing at the earth or however they word their reasoning. The past few months I have been checking NICT daily and it is interesting that usually about 2 days after a CME there will be some form of disturbances on the models. It kinda drives me nuts because I can sit here at my computer each day and with a few clicks I can visit various sources of data and feel I have a better grasp on what is actually happening. It seems to take ages for them to confirm or recognise what I already knew hours ago.

..sorry, rant.

All I am saying is just because one website (spaceweather or otherwise) says something does not necessarily mean it is accurate or timely. There are a ton of resources and data out there..all for free! Spaceweather is great for an "at a glance" style stuff and of course their numerous paid services ;-) but it leaves a lot to be desired. I see so many people citing Spaceweather and putting their own ideas on what they read which is kinda disturbing because if the site gave people easier to access information along ith their articles (and paid services, heh) there would not be so many panicked people thinking that coronal holes are evidence for a dying sun etc.

Again, I apologise for the personal rantage as it is just me mostly spouting my opinion but I wanted to convey that there is more to what might meet the eye with the specifics our sun-earth relationship.

Beautiful footage. The sun's more active, the weather is more active, the animal deaths are higher than normal, finally even more than the usual number of earthquakes and volcanos. It seems to me that all these things may be connected. This year has been exciting so far has it not?

reply to post by Attrei


Been a great year so far...There is so much more to come and I can hardly wait for it all....We picked a good time to be here on earth....

I am not an astrophysicist, I do not know what those numbers mean can someone translate? How big is this supposed to be if it hits. I have no point of reference yet, but hoping to find one.

Here is a run down on the space weather scales and classes of events from the SWPC:

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Hope it helps

reply to post by Caji316


No, our parents picked a good year!

Does anyone know the scale for this geomagnetic storm - that would give us an indication as to what to expect from it. I didn't see the scale on Spaceweather or did I overlook it. S @ F

I'm still waiting for that geomagnetic storm. Anyone else?

Originally posted by this_is_who_we_are
I'm still waiting for that geomagnetic storm. Anyone else?

I'm drinking geomagnetic beer almost two days in a row and nothing

All good here - transmissions no different than any other day.

Does anyone know what alert scale earth is suppose to be for the storm?

reply to post by crazydaisy

Geomagnetic Storm Forecasts

The geomagnetic storm probabilities are the estimated chances of at least one 3-hour K index, at the indicated level, for each of the next 3 days.

Active: K = 4.

Minor storm: K = 5.

Major or Severe storm: K > 6.

The "K index" is a 3-hourly quasi-logarithmic local index of geomagnetic activity relative to an assumed quiet-day curve for the recording site. Range is from 0 to 9. The K index measures the deviation of the most disturbed horizontal component of the magnetic field.

The Sun is a big magnet

. During solar minimum the Sun's magnetic field, like Earth's, resembles that of an iron bar magnet, with great closed loops near the equator and open field lines near the poles. Scientists call such a field a "dipole." The Sun's dipolar field is about as strong as a refrigerator magnet, or 50 gauss. Earth's magnetic field is 100 times weaker.

During the years around solar maximum (2000 and 2001 are good examples) spots pepper the face of the Sun. Sunspots are places where intense magnetic loops -- hundreds of times stronger than the ambient dipole field -- poke through the photosphere. Sunspot magnetic fields overwhelm the underlying dipole; as a result, the Sun's magnetic field near the surface of the star becomes tangled and complicated.

The Sun's magnetic field isn't confined to the immediate vicinity of our star. The solar wind carries it throughout the solar system. Out among the planets we call the Sun's magnetic field the "Interplanetary Magnetic Field" or "IMF." Because the Sun rotates (once every 27 days) the IMF has a spiral shape -- named the "Parker spiral" after the scientist who first described it.

Above: Steve Suess (NASA/MSFC) prepared this figure, which shows the Sun's spiraling magnetic field from a vantage point ~100 AU from the Sun.

Earth has a magnetic field, too. It forms a bubble around our planet called the magnetosphere, which deflects solar wind gusts. (Mars, which does not have a protective magnetosphere, has lost much of its atmosphere as a result of solar wind erosion.) Earth's magnetic field and the IMF come into contact at the magnetopause: a place where the magnetosphere meets the solar wind. Earth's magnetic field points north at the magnetopause. If the IMF points south -- a condition scientists call "southward Bz" -- then the IMF can partially cancel Earth's magnetic field at the point of contact.

"When Bz is south, that is, opposite Earth's magnetic field, the two fields link up," explains Christopher Russell, a Professor of Geophysics and Space Physics at UCLA. "You can then follow a field line from Earth directly into the solar wind" -- or from the solar wind to Earth. South-pointing Bz's open a door through which energy from the solar wind can reach Earth's atmosphere!

Southward Bz's often herald widespread auroras, triggered by solar wind gusts or coronal mass ejections that are able to inject energy into our planet's magnetosphere.

Geomagnetic storms produce auroras, severe ones can induce currents in power lines that can damage equipment and cause power outages.

www2.nict.go.jp...

update:

NOAA forecasters estimate a 60% chance of polar geomagnetic storms on Feb. 3rd when a coronal mass ejection is due to hit Earth's magnetic field. A solar wind stream following close behind the CME could extend the action into Feb. 4th and 5th.

It hasn't hit us yet.

A solar wind stream flowing from the indicated coronal hole should reach Earth on Feb. 3rd or (more likely) the 4th.

Solar wind speed: 377.7 km/sec
density: 1.4 protons/cm3

www.spaceweather.com...

reply to post by apacheman


Thanks for the scale - so do we have a forecast using the scale for this storm? Or do we just call it Minor?