2010-2014: the 10 Countries Most At-Risk of Political Violence

The PSIR Model of Domestic Political Violence – created by faculty at Kansas State University, Binghamton University and SUNY – forecasts political violence levels 5 years into the future. It is intended to allow policymakers to plan for rebellions, insurrections and civil unrest. According to the model - which has successfully predicted recent riots in Tunisia and civil unrest in Ireland - the ten nations most at-risk of political violence in the coming five years are: (1) Iran, (2) Sri Lanka, (3) Russia, (4) Georgia ...

I was most surprised to see the Czech Republic making the top ten list. A map is at the link showing where the U.S. and western Europe falls but I don't know how to embed it here.

www.cornucopia3000.com...

Check the news today, Algeria is having some huge protests right now. It could get ugly.

Now , check that map.

Algeria isn't even colored in at all.

Sadly, I would have to say this chart is fairly inaccurate.

But hey, political forecasting is extremely difficult, so I don't blame them for missing a few things.
link for information

Keep your eyes on Albania too. Things are getting real ugly there as well.

Originally posted by muzzleflash
Check the news today, Algeria is having some huge protests right now. It could get ugly.

Now , check that map.

Algeria isn't even colored in at all.

The operative words being, of course, "could get" ... when we say "has got ugly" then maybe it will be time to say the map is wrong.

Keep your eyes on Albania too. Things are getting real ugly there as well.

Albania is colored as a future hot spot on the map.

Albania is colored as a future hot spot on the map.

Or is it? That may have been Croatia. Who thought it would be a good idea to put up a 3-inch map!?

Originally posted by zuul000

Albania is colored as a future hot spot on the map.

Or is it? That may have been Croatia. Who thought it would be a good idea to put up a 3-inch map!?

Haha, I had the same issue.

I couldn't find a blown up version though.

I cannot tell since it's such a small nation and the map is really small.

If I find a blown up version I'll link it.

reply to post by zuul000


They forgot to add the United States of America. It is impossible to indoctrinate us from an early age about patriots, freedom and the Constitutuion, and then demand that we tolerate their Fascist actions.

reply to post by lostviking


yeah yeah yeah

#3 country for domestic political violence gets hit with airport bombing --

reply to post by zuul000


Wait what? Czech Republic in top 10? What did I miss? I thought they were chilling drinking bear, playing football and hockey as always? There's no political tension no violence. They are all living pretty good. May peace be with them. I do not remember ever hearing about anything bad happening there. Are there someone from Czech Republic here on ATS?

reply to post by muzzleflash


Oh It is Albania! I guess you can't expect people to learn all European countries. ^__^

Not only I can say for sure from the map that is Albania. But also it wouldn't make any sense that instead of Albania - Croatia would be colored. Because there is a political tension in Albania - riots, police and military shooting people on the streets while there is peace in Croatia.

A local NPR radio interview with the authors I heard this week ... they go into more detail about why the Czech Republic made the top ten list and also what factors are used for prediction ... interesting to note that increases in mobile phone use and internet accessibility are predictors of political violence because they allow organization by violent groups:

kbcsweb.bellevuecollege.edu...