Political Crisis in Arab World

Most of us are presently aware that a story is developing in Tunisia after weeks of riots and protest which have culminated in the President of Tunisia fleeing his country, family arrested, military taking over, and the Prime Minister dissolving government while seizing the powers of the Presidency. These weeks of protest against poor housing, corruption, high prices, and unemployment are not new to this part of the Arab world as Algiers, Algeria was hit by riots last summer.

What is different this time, compared to the events in Algeria, are that this ‘revolution’ actually succeeded at deposing a tyrant from power. For too long the Middle East has lived under the rule of men and families who claim unrivaled wealth and prestige while the workers struggle to survive. With an utter mismanagement of governance due to self-obsession this has led to:

13% Unemployment 1
4.3 Corruption Perception Index (0-10.0; 0 = Most Corrupt, 10 = Least Corrupt) 2
2.79 Democracy Index (0-10; 0 = Least Democratic, 10 = Most Democratic) 3

The former President of Tunisia who just fled the country had been in office for just over 23 years. He was a staunch pro-Westerner and assumed office with the commitment to fight Islamic extremism which he turned into a strong campaign to transform Tunisia into a secular dictatorship strongly against the interests of many Tunisians all as an appeal to the Westerners.

Tunisia pres. flees as army takes over

The Tunisian army has taken control of the North African nation after President Zine El Abidin Ben Ali reportedly left the country over increasing public discontent.


Ben Ali left the country for Malta on Friday shortly after sacking his cabinet members and commissioning Prime Minister Mohammed Ghannouchi to form a new government, AFP reported.

Do not think this is just one random event as you would be clearly mistaken. Tunisia is not the only country today facing major anti-government protests as they are also being held in the Arab nation of Jordan.

Massive anti-govt. protests held in Jordan

Thousands of Jordanians have taken to the streets of the country to protest the government's inability to control the rising price of commodities.


Chanting anti-government slogans, demonstrators in the capital Amman and other cities denounced the government economic policies on Friday, saying Prime Minister Samir Rifai policies have caused the rising food and fuel prices, unemployment and poverty.

Notice the striking similarities between these two countries and their reason to protest? At least the people of the Arab world are showing their opposition to the elite and their mismanagement, misappropriating, and corruption. They know who is doing this to them, the people of this part of the world are not dumb and are rightfully suspicious of outsiders for this exact reason. As income for those with connections rapidly climbs the income for the worker is steadily dropping while prices rise and economy tumbles.



Algeria riots resume over food prices

Fresh rioting broke out in Algiers today as police were deployed around mosques and football matches were suspended after protests over food prices and unemployment.
Riot police armed with teargas and batons maintained a strong presence around the Algerian capital's main mosques. In the popular Belcourt district, rioting resumed after Friday prayers. Young protesters pelted police with stones and blocked access to the area.

This article is from January 7th when rioting broke out again in Algeria which has been quite ongoing for some time now. The claim is that rioting is occurring due to food and unemployment but I believe it is deeper than that. At the heart of the crisis across the Arab world is political at heart and is a result of a growing opposition to the tyrants, corruption, and selling out to the Western world by their so-called ‘leaders’.



Deadly bombing sparks fury, Protests among Christians in Egypt

The New Year's Day homicide bombing of a church that killed 21 people has opened up a vein of fury among Egypt's Christians, built up over years of what they call government failure to address persistent discrimination and violence against their community.
Christian protests spread to Cairo from the northern city of Alexandria where the attack took place. Late Sunday, riots erupted outside the cathedral-headquarters of the Coptic Church after the country's top Muslim religious figures and government officials met with Pope Shenouda III.

Resulting from the bombing which occurred against Christians in Egypt on New Year’s resulted in large protests among Egyptian Christians. Notice again in this article as well who the Christians in Egypt were protesting against, the government.

So far we see protests/riots occurring in Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and Jordan, but wait we are not finished with the political crisis unfolding in this part of the world.



Wikileaks cables: Saudi princes throw parties boasting drinks, drugs and sex

The party was thrown by a wealthy prince from the large Al-Thunayan family. The diplomats said his identity should be kept secret. A US energy drinks company also put up some of the finance.
"Alcohol, though strictly prohibited by Saudi law and custom, was plentiful at the party's well-stocked bar. The hired Filipino bartenders served a cocktail punch using sadiqi, a locally-made moonshine," the cable said. "It was also learned through word-of-mouth that a number of the guests were in fact 'working girls', not uncommon for such parties."

That is not however the only story about the problems arising in Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia without Kind Abdullah

Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdul Aziz's deteriorating health conditions and his possible death raises questions about the fate of Saudi Arabia after the 86-year-old king's demise.


Given the uncertain future ahead of 84-year-old Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz, who has kept a low profile since last year and refrained from talking to local media, the possible death of the Saudi monarch may drag highly traditional and tribal Saudi Arabia into a clan war.

A looming crisis ahead waits in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia with the inevitable death of their current King and no clear heir to the throne that will continue his pro-western and moderate reformist policies. The only long-term heir to this throne is considered a radical Islamists who is not particularly pro-western or pro-reformist. Throw in the extravagant parties by members of the royal family while women are arrested and beaten just for walking alone in the streets and this spells disaster waiting to happen.

Lebanon Government Collapses: What’s Behind the Crisis

Few would have imagined, when a massive explosion killed former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri in February 2005, that the aftershocks of the blast would be powerful enough to bring down Lebanon's government six years later. The fragile coalition government led by Hariri's son, Saad, collapsed on Wednesday in a dispute over how to respond to the imminent release of a U.N. tribunal's indictments of those accused of the murder, plunging this divided and conflict-weary country once more into the spotlight of regional anxiety.

Yemen opposition urges protests against amendments

Yemen's opposition called for protests, in a statement received Sunday, after parliament dismissed its objections to constitutional changes that could allow President Ali Abdullah Saleh to rule for life.
The opposition Common Forum urged for "mobilising the people's struggle" and "instantly organising protests... to mark the new year (2011) as the year of peaceful struggle until achieving victory."
The calls came after some 170 members of Saleh's General People's Congress (GPC) party voted Saturday in favour of constitutional amendments that could see the president rule for life, despite opposition protests and calls by the United States for a vote delay.

Yet again another nation that adds to a growing list of Middle Eastern and North African Arab nations which are suffering from or under the looming expectation of political crisis which only appears to be spreading further throughout the Arab world by the day.

Is there a conspiracy in this? Could evil be at work across the Middle East? Or could this be a genuine rising up of the people against their masters in a part of the world where suspicion of foreigners, acknowledgement of tptb, and protection of identity is widespread?

With 7 countries in one region of the world facing political instability or crisis there is something afoot. Is it possible that Tunisian revolt is the spark that lights the fire or revolution? We must wait and see.

*Red indicates country with political crisis or looming crisis*
[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/3c8532e02b32.png[/atsimg]

reply to post by Misoir


S&F; very nice analysis of the sketchy conditions of the ME countries in the world...as this issue has been in my mind for several weeks....

However, the percentage of countries outlined in your OP or in the diagram, "in the red" *ARE* largely supported by the US or largely partners of the US...

Therefore, when US (and its related organizational entities, i.e., UNICEF) are economically impacted, so goes many of the "puppets"?

Or the ME/N. African countries have had it with the US completely?

I will make an exception, while biting my tongue, and say that Khadafi et al. (Libya) have decided to include western-type expansion in their plans, largely under their controls. So far, so good...but I would need to do further research to comment more.

Am I wrong, ATS?

If so, then what's going on?

Brilliant piece, I wish I could give you 10 flags and as many stars for your excellent work

It is always a pleasure to read and share in your thoughts

The whole region appears to be undergoing a fundamental transformation, but then economic reasons are a harsh mistress and certainly a driver...

I hope it will produce better governance for the citizens, but IMHO it is a contagion that will spread throughout the area.. I can not see anyone being immune to this wave of protest.

Originally posted by thoughtsfull

The whole region appears to be undergoing a fundamental transformation, but then economic reasons are a harsh mistress and certainly a driver...

I hope it will produce better governance for the citizens, but IMHO it is a contagion that will spread throughout the area.. I can not see anyone being immune to this wave of protest.

I would suspect it would only spread among countries with a government led by pro-Westerners. Those countries without a pro-Western bent don't appear to be in any serious crisis. The Gulf states however are currently so wealthy and booming it will take almost a decade for them to start feeling the real pinch and get angry.

reply to post by Misoir


Hate to bring this issue into political crisis--but why haven't the breathren...Muslims....from the Gulf...and from Al Aribiya Saudia--helped out their religious counterparts in the other areas?

The Gulf states however are currently so wealthy and booming it will take almost a decade for them to start feeling the real pinch and get angry.

The Fastest Roller Coaster on earth, but too greedy to help theirs.... or not.....?

www.ferrariworldabudhabi.com... Mods--tried to directly embed; couldn't...or anyone else, go for it

Very good thread. I've been watching and waiting for the reality to kick in for a while now.
A group of us said probably about two years ago that civil unrest would become the most powerful force in the economic collapse.

It's the start of the Revolution Gerald Celente has been forecasting for the past year and a half. The translation of the idea of a peaceful revolution is what is open to discussion. The people might want a peaceful transition to true democracy, but the PTB will use violence to quell it.

So, we were off on the timing for when this would all start because we didn't expect our governments to waste so much more time and money on papering over the cracks and delaying the inevitable. But now it is indeed setting in and is certain to continue.

There is still a lot more to come in Europe too. More strikes will cause more unrest and more cuts will cause more protests. As the authorities try to crack down on it, they'll put a foot wrong (especially here in the UK where they love to use their confrontational tactics) and it will turn into a repeat of the Poll Tax riots.

We do live in interesting times.

Excellent thread.
Are the waves of outrage enough to cause change? The Isreal/American power is pretty dominant even if Egypt became a more independent government. Jordan and Lebanon are in a precarious location. I have no doubt my government's three letter agencies are working tirelessly to ensure no radical political changes there. Yemen, Tunisia, Algeria are powder kegs. Egypt and Saudi Arabia can only tighten the vice on their people for so long. I hope that these tyrannies fall, but what will replace them. What lies under the surface of secular dictatorships? Iran in 79, and Iraq to this day show the dangers underneath a strong state.

Why do my taxes pay for messing in all this?

Originally posted by Misoir

Originally posted by thoughtsfull

The whole region appears to be undergoing a fundamental transformation, but then economic reasons are a harsh mistress and certainly a driver...

I hope it will produce better governance for the citizens, but IMHO it is a contagion that will spread throughout the area.. I can not see anyone being immune to this wave of protest.

I would suspect it would only spread among countries with a government led by pro-Westerners. Those countries without a pro-Western bent don't appear to be in any serious crisis. The Gulf states however are currently so wealthy and booming it will take almost a decade for them to start feeling the real pinch and get angry.

In my mind it works something like this, (very simplified just to demonstrate how I see things) if the West scales back it's imports from China then a knock on effect could be China scaling back it's oil purchases from Iran, so Iran is impacted even tho they are not tied to the West.

So in this case, the first areas to be impacted harshest by our economic crisis would be the poorer nations tied in bondage on the periphery to the West, with the most corrupt among those leading the way downhill.

But the knock on effect could ripple through the region, it is the degree of ripple that interests me, the direction any displaced populations take (looking for jobs etc) and the type of end result these protests have.

The type of end result could be so beneficial to the population that other citizenry in the area might then scream for their version thus reigniting a wave of change.

At the moment most of these things are hard to define.. but it is interesting to watch.. economic distress pushes people to seek new solutions, at the moment it really feels the world, and the West in particular are being rather stagnant and old school in clinging to there ways rather than embrace anything new (bit like old Rome in it's last days

reply to post by Misoir


Great post, thank you!

I knew there was some unrest in the mid-east but I didn't know it was this widespread. Don't forget about the Greeks going nuts just north across the Mediterranean.

Yet another thing in this world going nuts.

reply to post by muggl3z


Well it could also be analyzed as a political crisis straddling the Mediterranean since it does also extend into Southern Europe.

What do people think is the likely outcome for Tunisia? Will a democracy take hold, or is there a chance that extremist Islamic elements will take control and turn Tunisia into another anti-western state? Or could they even end up with another dictator, or some crackpot like Gadaffi?
Hopefully democracy but will be interesting to see

reply to post by MortlitantiFMMJ


I kind of wonder about that rise of radical islam we always hear about. I am sure there are radical muslims who wish to establish a theocracy with sharia law. The problem is that the US government and media portray anyone other than pliable local aristocrats as fundamentalists. I doubt it is so black and white. Can a moderate government result from these events? Each country has different issues, but hopefully something better for the everyday person results.

reply to post by Misoir

Regarding the wikileak cable, re the prince, who boasted of sex, drugs, and alcohol. Didn't dirk diggler figure that out about 100 years ago, when he got the saudi prince to admit that he never felt like he was 'home' except when he was at studio 54. Oh wait, that source was steve reubell. Same thing then.

The msm is ignoring these stories, or rather, twisting them around. But then, I'm ignoring the msm. Good work. It is as if the west infected all the leaders, which is why I always bristle when they call for wars to 'spread' democracy. I don't think it was always as such. Weren't the western leaders supposed to be bound by some sort of decorum, taste, and budget? Suddenly a trip to congress is like an invo to the billionaire's club. Now we look to them for leading examples among the most flagrant amongst the nouveau riche, self serving hypocrites. Their souls must shrink ever they recall their small town upbringings.

who's the avatar?

Many are only awakening to the realities of the world. Greed had been all too encompassing and filled every single human heart, and more in abundance with those in power.

One can only get rich by denying and depriving another of their dollar. In our past, capitalists had been happy to make 2 dollars of every workmen they hire. There was peace and contentment. The worker still has 8 dollars. But in recent times, the capitalist had grown exceeding greedy and rich. They took 8 dollars from each worker and gave 2 dollars to the worker. And the worker have to support his family and society, while the capitalist fled with his ill begotton gains.

The workers turn to their leaders, both elected and unelected for succor, but unfortunately, their leaders were in league with the capitalists, robbing the common man blind instead of building up the treasuries and protected resources, which they sold out to the corporations.

Every human has a limit, and today, that limit had been stretched, and had finally awoken to their lot in life. They want justice and fairness, and to be repaid for their losses, in the only way they know how - through their hands as one people.

For guidance and leadership, they had lost faith with the govt and their constitutions. They tried to look at US constitution. A great noble idealism but unfortunately, had been corrupted by the elites to serve their own ends, and is supported by the american people whom had not challenge or boot the corrupt out, or were helpless to do so.

The only faith they had left with is religion and religious leaders, seeking them out for leadership. These senile old men would be more than happy to fill the void, but unfortunately, they know next to nothing about politics, socialogy and economics.

All they have is a guidebook, written and rewritten, as well as filled with flawed mortals opinions as guidance, with thousands of archiac laws that attempts to create robots than humans that our Creator seeks for. There is an Universal law - the law of free will that even our Creator will not break. Divine Teachers and Messengers had been sent, and yet, their words had only be twisted around by doubts and zealotry that harmed mankind then to help, under such senile old men's leadership.

Mankind is lost if good men amongst our arabic brothers and sisters refuse to stand up and take the lead for fear of their own safety. The original US constitution is good starting point to lead, and must be constantly watched and protected by good men so that it does not end up corrupted as US is today. The sacred Constitution gives mankind freedom and free will to progress and evolve as a people to fulfill our destiny, which robotic twisted religion will not allow such growths.

I can only weep and watch such events with a heavy sense of doom for stubborn mankind....

Most of these riots are because of the rising prices in food and commodities while worker wages stay the same, correct? Their main problem is that a majority of these countries have a climate that is mostly made up of desert, thus they don't have enough arable land to grow the amount of crops they need to support their population. So, their leaders are forced to cut unfavorable oil and resource deals with Western states that will import cheap food and commodities for their citizens.

Most of these countries don't have enough continual educated man power to keep inventing new technology that will keep their economy growing. Thus, their economies almost completely dependent on importing new technology and commodities, while exporting all of their country’s resources. If their resources are beginning to run out, as it is entirely possible, then they will not have as much to trade. This will increase the prices of their resources as they are now scarcer, it will also decrease the amount of imports they receive in trade, which will increase prices of the commodities they already have.

What I don't understand is why these citizens think a military coup of their country will solve their problems? They need a democracy to elect officials that will focus on the people's problems and not their own wallet.

Originally posted by tooo many pills[..]They need a democracy to elect officials that will focus on the people's problems and not their own wallet.

Sorry,had to laugh at this one...hehe...Isnt that what the West does?...Works good for us eh? Its works for awhile...but look at us,especially the US,how it ends...




PS: It isnt meant as an Insult,i just found this one Sentence funny

Originally posted by tooo many pills
Their main problem is that a majority of these countries have a climate that is mostly made up of desert, thus they don't have enough arable land to grow the amount of crops they need to support their population. So, their leaders are forced to cut unfavorable oil and resource deals with Western states that will import cheap food and commodities for their citizens..

Your statement applies only to Communist and dictatorships where the market is controlled by the govts. They will be the ones to sell resources, makes the money, use it for social expenditure, and to purchase necessary resources from the outside world for their own economy and people with subsidies.

Unfortunately, democratic markets do not work that way and are capitalistic in nature. Oil is only one of the resources that the Tunisa govt owns but is shared by Coporations who fund the infrstracture for oil exploitation while the govt offers the labour, and then gets a cut in profits when the oil is sold. ( and therein lies the corruptions)

Tunisa has also other industries and 11% of its GDP is based on agricultural products. The problem is not about imports of foodstuff that raised the ire of the citizens, but its rising costs by the middlemen and owners who had been profitting immensely from raising their prices arbitarity, while the corrupted govt does nothing such as controlling it or creating govt cooperative food enterprises to break the monopolies held by the elites.

While it is true that there are earth changes recently and well into the horizon, it is no excuse that the leadership to fail to anticipate and ensure there are ready affordable food for the people, or at least wages that matches with the rate of inflation, or even use its oil weath royalties to compensate for costs by subsidies.

The people are not armed. Only the military is armed and capable to break down the security forces employed by the corrupt govt officials and thus the dependence on them as a recourse for justice. May more realized the necessity and right of citizens to own arms, so that the rule of law by citizens can be uphold by civilians and not the authoritarian military once the govt is overthrown.

Excellent assessment of the situation. The imbalance in the distribution of wealth has gotten too far of centre as the basic needs of the population can no longer be meet. These uprisings along with a new division in American congress between the corporations and the people is reaching the point of enough. A realignment in the distribution of wealth and responsibility is how I hope it all turns out, could go a few ways. For an interesting perspective from a higher source www.abovetopsecret.com...

Thanks for sharing this OP. I doubt there is going to be much coverage about this in the main stream media. For example, I learned about the collapse of the Lebanese government here on ATS, without a peep for the MSM.

One thing I have left to wonder is, what will become of the countires in the Middle East/N. Africa that are experiencing these protests? Will a new government form that will be for the people of those countries? I hope so.

One more thing I have to add, is that these images and videos of protests seem to be pretty re-occuring in the past few months. By that I mean France, UK, Greece, Russia, Ivory Coast......Seems that alot of countires citizens are pretty ticked off at their governments as of late.

Originally posted by starless and bible black
reply to post by Misoir

 

who's the avatar?

If you are asking who is the man in my avatar than the answer is Francois-Rene de Chateaubriand. He was the founder of Romanticism in French literature.