Nasa warns solar flare will cause devastation.

One thing I have never understood is why people think this would be a permanent effect? Yes it is feasible that a massive solar flare could take out radio, electronic etc.. The thing is that it isnt gonna be gone forever. When a storm hits and knocks down power lines you can be without power for up to a week at times (something I found out last winter personally) but it comes back.

Why is everything that may or may not happen always the end of life as we know it?

reply to post by Skywatcher2011


If there was a game the story would be a million+ gamers worldwide because of not having any games to play. If damaged all electronics that would kick off world war 3

i remember hearing this could be like a emp won't that brake everything if its true

reply to post by Wildeagle


Can anyone explain what exactly will happen to these devices? Will they stop working permanently? Is it just a disturbance that will pass?

Originally posted by phishybongwaters

The power plants and transportation systems, on the other hand, would be damaged.

The only thing that can be damaged by GIC at a power station is the step up transformer that ties the generators to the transmission system.

Lets go over the basics of why GIC’s can be a threat to long distance power systems. When the magnetic fields move, they induce currents into the crust of the earth. But the earth’s crust is a poor conductor. The power lines are far better conductors. Current takes the path of least resistance. If the line is grounded at both ends, then current will go down the line, instead of through the earth’s crust.

The currents are not high enough to damage the wires themselves. The problem comes at the ends of the wires. If the wire is grounded to the earth at each end through the transformer’s windings, then the GIC will flow from ground, through one transformer, down the line, then out through the other transformer, back to ground.

The current flow has such long cycles of oscillation that it is basically DC as far as the equipment is concerned. AKA “quasi dc”

How it threatens the transformer is the fact that a dc current flow through the windings of a transformer will saturate the transformer’s core. By it’s self the DC saturation will not damage a thing. The problem comes when you have a transformer that is still operating at full AC service voltage while saturated. That will cause core heating and winding heating. The heating will continue until the insulation breaks down. A short will form and the fault detection system will kick the transformer off line. End of story. No explosions, no leveling of everything within a half mile.

That above scenario is assuming a long three phase transmission line with grounded wye transformers at each end.

But……… and a big But………. Standard Operating Practice is that you have a grounded wye secondary on the transformer that supplies the line, and an ungrounded delta primary on all three phase transformers that run off that line. That is SOP.

Usually, any substation transformer running off the transmission system will be using an ungrounded delta primary. Remember a key point here, is that the only way current can flow is if the line is grounded at both ends through the transformer. In the standard installation, it is only grounded at ONE END!!!!!!!

The majority of all standard substation transformers will not be bothered by GICs. The situations that invite damage from GICs are large grids where there is multiple power stations at different ends of a single line. Each power station is a “source” So it has a “grounded wye” at it’s connection to the line. If the two power stations are connected at both ends, then you have a complete circuit and GICs can flow. You need a grounded wye at each power station because each power station has the ability to supply the line by it’s self. If it didn’t have a grounded wye and it was the only station on the line, then the line would be floating, and I will just state that a “floating line” is not something you want to have.

Basic rule of thumb is that if you island the distant power stations from each other with their own share of the loads, you will negate any GICs.

The only other area of the power grid that is at risk is the distribution side. In the distribution environment, you have single phase transformers that connect between the ground and the hot lines along the path of the line. Most smaller lines in the cities are too short to be bothered by GICs. It will more likely affect the ones in the rual areas. And they will only be affected if the power is on.

If there is no AC power, then no more units will be damaged. Remember, DC saturation will not damage a transformer by it’s self. The only time you get damage is when you try to apply operating voltage to a saturated transformer.

And, as I have pointed out on other threads, when the first couple big transformers go, the power will drop across the entire united states. Look at the north eastern blackout that happened after ONE big transformer went. Do you honestly think that the power will stay on after 5%, 10%, or 20% of the power distribution spontaneously drops off line from transformer damage, or other GIC induced fault conditions? Once the power goes out, then no more damage. Find out what broke, fix it, wait until the GICs calm down, then turn the power back on. You may have to tell people to limit their usage for a few weeks until the damaged stations get back on line, but that will be it.

Our power grid is too fragile to stay on long enough for a sizable percentage of the transformer stock to damage it’s self. And that is a good thing.

Originally posted by phishybongwaters
I recall hearing years back during an Ice Storm that wreaked havoc on the Eastern US and Canada that a single power transformer takes months to build.

(Holds my head in my hands while mumbling unrepeatable things to myself)

For normal day to day repair and maintenance, you DON’T build a NEW transformer when the old one is damaged. You REBUILD it!!!!!!! That is why there is such a long turn around for new ones. They are not regular production items. They are normally built for a project that is on a schedule. There is plenty of lead time. No one is in a hurry. I can assure you that if you really needed one, then you could get one built in way under a month. You could get an old damaged one rebuilt in less than a week.

Heck. Give me the required copper, a couple big spools of fish paper, spooling system, and a hoist system, and I would easily be able to rebuild a couple MW transformer in less than a month with my own two hands!!!

Heck, ditch the spooling system and I still would be able to do it with time to spare.

It isn’t freaking rocket science. All you need is something to lift the large parts as you break it down, and put it back together.

And all that is assuming that there will be nobody on duty, or no automated safety systems watching the instrumentation and equipment to see the fact that something strange is happening that needs to be stopped.

As I have posted before, there is always people on watch. Overseeing the power grid and it’s operation.

I don’t know how I can be more clear on this……. There are people that watch over the operation of “the grid” They are paid to watch over their company’s assets 24/7/365. They breathe, eat, and sleep the power grid. They know what they are doing. They will be the first ones to see strange stuff happening. They are the ones that decide if the lights get turned off. Or what measures need to be taken to keep the lights on. Not some politician in some stupid movie.

They are there to maintain a proper and timely operation of the power grid, and the protection of the assets that make up the grid, if, and when, necessary. If they deem that there is a threat to the grid that warrants the cessation of operations, or islanding of generation until the threat clears, then they will be the one making the decision, and pulling the switches. No one else!

Quoted from another user, not sure why it did not box it up like normal:

"Like i said, i wish we restart a new.
Imagine a inhabited world without the power that is set up now.
Instead of us moving and conquring, we stay and live and survive.

Great empires rose only because others fallen.
If this would happen - and we did not repeat our historys mistakes, we would become a better people"



Im not going to lie, whilst I would appreciate a reset - I think sometimes this world needs it. But..........

I would really miss Call Of Duty Black Ops online if we lost all electricty/power/systems

reply to post by Jed1Knight


Black ops is the reason this thread sends shivers down my spine

Either way when it happens TPTB will still have a system to operate its called
Is HAARP capable of affecting the weather?(excert from HAARP installation)
The HAARP facility will not affect the weather. Transmitted energy in the frequency ranges that will be used by HAARP is not absorbed in either the troposphere or the stratosphere - the two levels of the atmosphere that produce the earth's weather. Electromagnetic interactions only occur in the near-vacuum of the rarefied region above about 70 km known as the ionosphere.

The ionosphere is created and continuously replenished as the sun's radiation interacts with the highest levels of the Earth's atmosphere. The downward coupling from the ionosphere to the stratosphere/troposphere is extremely weak, and no association between natural ionospheric variability and surface weather and climate has been found, even at the extraordinarily high levels of ionospheric turbulence that the sun can produce during a geomagnetic storm. If the ionospheric storms caused by the sun itself don't affect the surface weather, there is no chance that HAARP can do so either

Noteworthy information within documents that refer to:
However it should be noted when the solar neutron burst happens the defence and military will still have a communication system by using haarp when the rest of the planet will have no electricity. It states the haarp facility will rely soully on diesel from generators built for the installations knowing that earth is going to be blasted by the sun and they will still have communications available to them to report findings after the event in defence and military re-patriation of co -remaining remnants and populace.

there are so many other forms of alternate energy. if something like this were to take out or current corperate hungry system it would be a blessing in disguise. no ones going to make leaps into a more efficent/cheaper way of energy if there is not a need. if this is what the forwarned "2012" is we should all be so lucky and accept the change.
lets hope it doesnt come to a group of people or a natural catasrophe of MUCH worse cercumstances and devastation.

reply to post by Wildeagle


Please bare in mind that 11 years have gone by many times in the last 150 years of technology and 10,000 years of human history in civilization. Anomalies will happen, seeing as we're only just beginning to look at it.

It's going to come, probably short some stuff out, and then pass.

Originally posted by Wildeagle
reply to post by Anttyk47

 

Why would you wish this to happen? It would be devastating!

I understand it would be an experience, but one I would prefer not to have!

edit on 14-1-2011 by Wildeagle because: Made an oopsie!

Although I don't wish that this would happen, I can see why some would. Anyone dissatisfied with the current world order, or who has romantic ideas about "life before technology" could very easily be swayed by an idea such as this.

I'm not one of them, but I do understand.

reply to post by Wildeagle


Hmm..interesting. I just heard a segment on NPR today about updating and reinforcing the backbone of the American electrical grid. It would cost something like 180 billion dollars over 10 years. If a massive solar flare disrupted the electrical grid it would cost more than 180 billion dollars. Think in the trillions of dollars. The infrastructure itself is valued at 1 trillion dollars. Add to that fried personal and commercial electronics.
This is why I have some spare electronics and solar panels wrapped in several layers of anti-static, anti-EMP material in a nice and secure area. I also own an old truck that has no electronics and I regularly rotate my storage of fuel. It would be a chaotic scenario, but I think we would survive. It would take some time to get back to normal but it will not take us back to 1800.

reply to post by Wildeagle


the sun runs on 11 year cycles. it clams down and then starts blowing off solor flares. the earths magnetic field protects us from most of the flares. they cause "the northern lights" some time if the flares are big you can see the northern lights were you should not see them like i have seen it in florida before. check out this vid
www.youtube.com... IF the big one does hits there will be no recovery we are to dependent on electricity.the whole system shuts down no one will go to work cause ya cant get paid. no government communication it would be total anarchy. the damage would be to widespeard. imo we are talking about a new stone age. just think about that the lights go off and NEVER come back on. ya want a small taste of what happens in this kind of situation just research the aftermath of katrina www.youtube.com... and there was help on the way for them. in a world wide black out from a solor storm no ones coming to save us its just every man for him self. freaking game over man game over

Originally posted by Anttyk47
Gosh i hope this happens, but i hope this doesn't take any lives (One probably won't happen without the other)

My dad always had this saying, give a finger - take a hand.
We humans took two hands and a smooch to the face.
Me thinks we need to learn a correct way of advancing, not the fastest.

(If we did it right the first time, a solar flare/storm wouldn't bring us back to square uno)

True

To distance ourselves for most technology, at least for a while, would bring us back to reality. A cold shower, but necessary one.

Excellent post! Maybe we should take these warnings and educate ourselves on survival skills. I have never lived without electricity and really do not want to. One would have to assume that the threat is there and it is always better to be safe than sorry.

I really hope this happens

Originally posted by Wildeagle
reply to post by torqpoc

 

It's times like this I wish I weren't so squeemish about the idea of skinning animals, etc!

I will most definitely be putting some sort of emergency plan together though!

Just stock up on Spam. Problem solved!

I'm realy starting to believe that some other celestial body is whats going to cause this so called devestation and that it may end up being a hell of a lot worse then what they (TPTB) say. Whether planet x exists, I'm not sure. Assuming that it does exist, it maybe a planet, brown dwarf, brown dwarf with planets/moons/fragments in tow, comet or asteroid, God knows what.....None of us, the public anyway, know for sure. You can assume though that the people in power do know precisely what it is and of its ETA.
I've been delving into the subject of Planet X quite a bit over the last year and the more I look the more afraid I'm becoming. I'll be honest and say that when I fist heard of the mention of planet X, I said to myself, Give me a break !.... Planet X my arse. I really thought the idea was ridiculous, just some bored astronomy guys or scientists spewing out crap in order to somehow enhance the idea of an otherwise mundane Solar System where nothing exciting or worthwhile ever happens, apart from a few cometary fragments flying into jupiter every couple of centuries or so. So many things just point to the fact that all, may indeed not be well.

The IRAS the americans launched in 1983, and then right away mysteriously malfunctioned.
The two pioneer probes launched in order to triangulate it's position.
The frantic building efforts that went into the construction of the SPT down in Antartica (taking into account the slim window per year due to weather).
The abrupt discontinuation of Replenishing Military Cargo fligth stop-overs in New Zealand en route (changed to direct from U.S to Antartica in flight refuelling for no good reason) due to too much talk and rumour about what was really going on down there and of the types of supplies being taken on board.

Sorry can't finish....gotta go.

Originally posted by Trapt

Originally posted by Wildeagle
reply to post by torqpoc

 

It's times like this I wish I weren't so squeemish about the idea of skinning animals, etc!

I will most definitely be putting some sort of emergency plan together though!

Just stock up on Spam. Problem solved!

That post made my night after all this doom and gloom.. I think I've read no less than 50 or so threads on ATS over the past two years that predict this, and so far (knock on wood) so good. It really isn't the end of civilization as we know it if the power goes out for a week, hell in the 80's that was commonplace where i lived in the winter, snowstorm hit, boom, no electricity for a week easy. Would I like it nowadays? Hell no, I'd be lost without my computer... Could I survive it, probably, not without some spitting and swearing.. Could everyone survive it...??

Yes, probably with a lot of collective spitting and swearing.

Saw a film the other night and in it people switched off all electrical appliances when an emp was coming (they knew because before each one there was an arora effect in the sky above them).
This idea just popped into my head: IF they can predict which day/days it is going to hit us then what if they shut down the power grids, ground planes etc for say... 3days to play it safe. Surely if the devices aren't currently conducting then they can't be affected by an emp? Yes it would be a pain but as long as we had notice to stock up on candles and stuff it would maybe be worthwhile to be able to use our electricity networks once the effects have passed?

This may be (probably is) the stupidest idea you've ever heard but hey, sometimes stupid is genius