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OK readers, later in this article, I'm going to use an example that will involve either a garden, a sailboat, a running man or a train. Can you accurately guess which one? In a forthcoming issue of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology (JPSP), Cornell psychology professor Daryl Bem has published an article that suggests you can, possibly more often than the 25 percent of the time on average you might expect just by chance.
Entitled "Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect," the paper presents evidence from nine experiments involving over 1,000 subjects suggesting that events in the future may influence events in the past -- a concept known as "retrocausation." In some of the experiments, students were able to guess at future events at levels of accuracy beyond what would be expected by chance. In others, events that took place in the future appeared to influence those in the past, such as one in which rehearsing a list of words enhanced recall of those words, with the twist that the rehearsal took place after the test of recall.
So what is notable about the current publication? To begin, Bem is not just any psychologist; he is one of the most prominent psychologists in the world (he was probably mentioned in your Psych 101 textbook, and may have even co-authored it). And JPSP is not just any journal but sits atop the psychology journal heap; the article, especially given its premise, was subjected to a rigorous peer-review (where scientific colleagues critique the article and decide whether it is worthy of publication). Also, Bem intentionally adopted well-accepted research protocols in the studies, albeit with a few key twists, that are simple and replicable (they don't require lots of special equipment, and the analyses are straightforward). Even so, whether the larger scientific community will pay attention to this study remains to be seen.
Psi is a term from parapsychology derived from the Greek, ψ psi, 23rd letter of the Greek alphabet; from the Greek ψυχή psyche, "mind, soul".[1][2]
So let's see some casinos bankrupted by roulette players beating the house odds and I'll be convinced. Ever heard the saying "put your money where your mouth is"?
After accounting for the house advantage, what is the
probability that the psi-player will win one million euros? This probability, easily calculated
from random walk theory (e.g., Feller, 1970, 1971) equals 48.6%. This means that, in this
case, the expected profit for a psychic’s night out at the casino equals $485,900. If Bem's
psychic plays the game all year round, never raises the stakes, and always quits at a profit
of a million dollars, the expected return is $177,353,500.
Bem’s psychic could bankrupt all casinos on the planet before anybody realized
what was going on. This analysis leaves us with two possibilities. The first possibility
is that, for whatever reason, the psi effects are not operative in casinos, but they are operative
in psychological experiments on erotic pictures. The second possibility is that the
psi effects are either nonexistent, or else so small that they cannot overcome the house
advantage.
So their claim is that nearly ALL research papers on this topic, and not just Bems, are flawed and show the null hypothesis as being true in cases where it's not true.
The most important flaws in the Bem experiments, discussed below in detail, are the
following: (1) confusion between exploratory and confirmatory studies; (2) insufficient attention
to the fact that the probability of the data given the hypothesis does not equal the
probability of the hypothesis given the data (i.e., the fallacy of the transposed conditional);
(3) application of a test that overstates the evidence against the null hypothesis, an unfortunate
tendency that is exacerbated as the number of participants grows large. Indeed, when
we apply a Bayesian t-test (G¨onen, Johnson, Lu, & Westfall, 2005; Rouder, Speckman,
Sun, Morey, & Iverson, 2009) to quantify the evidence that Bem presents in favor of psi,
the evidence is sometimes slightly in favor of the null hypothesis, and sometimes slightly in
favor of the alternative hypothesis. In almost all cases, the evidence falls in the category
“anecdotal”, also known as “worth no more than a bare mention” (Jeffreys, 1961).
We realize that the above flaws are not unique to the experiments reported by Bem.
Indeed, many studies in experimental psychology suffer from the same mistakes. However,
this state of affairs does not exonerate the Bem experiments. Instead, these experiments
highlight the relative ease with which an inventive researcher can produce significant results
even when the null hypothesis is true.
Is this the movie you're referring to?
Originally posted by C-JEAN
What the BLEEP! do we know !? down the rabbit hole".
A FANTASTIC 3 DVD movie and interviews kit ! !
So is promoting this movie an admission of being totally gullible?
documentary aimed at the totally gullible. Shifting from quantum theory to mystical mumbo jumbo in the blink of an eye
Originally posted by Arbitrageur
Maybe the casinos would have to redesign the roulette wheel to replace black with non-erotic pictures, and replace red with erotic pictures for the psychic to win?
Technically it's not really my experiment, I quoted the source, but that's true, they kicked card counters out for winning too much.
Originally posted by gift0fpr0phecy
There is a flaw in your experiment...
Casinos kick out and ban players who win too much. Even online casinos.
You actually have to be right more than 51.35% of the time to beat the house odds, but Bem's study showed that's possible. However he's been accused of using the Texas sharpshooter fallacy to achieve these results:
Originally posted by RogerT
Personally, I used to be able to guess red/black way more than 50% of the time, until I 'put my money where my mouth is' and then the clarity disappeared in a whoosh of emotion.
By Bem's own admission some of this took place:
The Texas sharpshooter fallacy is using the same data to both construct and test a hypothesis. Its name comes from a parable where a Texan fires his gun at the side of a barn, then paints a target around the shots and claims to be a sharpshooter.
In late 2010, "Feeling the Future: Experimental Evidence for Anomalous Retroactive Influences on Cognition and Affect", a psychology paper by Daryl Bem ostensibly provided evidence of precognition. In Bem's experiments, small but statistically significant number of test subjects' responses appeared to be influenced by conditions which appeared later in the tests.[1] However, Bem has acknowledged forming some of his conclusions after the tests, rather than testing fixed hypotheses as any rigorous application of the scientific method should. He has also stated that, before concluding and publishing his research, "I purposely waited until I thought there was a critical mass that wasn't a statistical fluke".[1] While this may seem logical at first glance, deliberately waiting for such a "critical mass" actually means stopping research at a point when the results appear favourable to the hypotheses rather than continuing through a pre-set number of experiments before checking for overall findings.
I suspect neither you nor Bem of overtly lying. However my psi tells me that inconvenient results are ignored. (such as your statement that when the emotions of real money came into play, the precognitive ability was diminished, which is along these lines. Actually that's not my psi, that's your own admission. ). Bem more or less indirectly admits to this with his "exploratory" rather than "confirmatory" approach to data collection and if you were scientifically accurate about your data collection you may find a similar pattern.
Of course I could be lying, but those with a bit of 'psi' will be able to 'sense' if it's true or not
to quantify the evidence that Bem presents in favor of psi,
the evidence is sometimes slightly in favor of the null hypothesis, and sometimes slightly in
favor of the alternative hypothesis. In almost all cases, the evidence falls in the category
“anecdotal”, also known as “worth no more than a bare mention” (Jeffreys, 1961).
The paper, due to appear in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology before the end of the year, is the culmination of eight years' work by Daryl Bem of Cornell University in Ithaca, New York. "I purposely waited until I thought there was a critical mass that wasn't a statistical fluke," he says.
It describes a series of experiments involving more than 1000 student volunteers. In most of the tests, Bem took well-studied psychological phenomena and simply reversed the sequence, so that the event generally interpreted as the cause happened after the tested behaviour rather than before it.
In one experiment, students were shown a list of words and then asked to recall words from it, after which they were told to type words that were randomly selected from the same list. Spookily, the students were better at recalling words that they would later type.
In another study, Bem adapted research on "priming" – the effect of a subliminally presented word on a person's response to an image. For instance, if someone is momentarily flashed the word "ugly", it will take them longer to decide that a picture of a kitten is pleasant than if "beautiful" had been flashed. Running the experiment back-to-front, Bem found that the priming effect seemed to work backwards in time as well as forwards.
In recent years, priming experiments have become a staple of cognitive and cognitive social
psychology (Bargh & Ferguson, 2000; Fazio, 2001; Klauer & Musch, 2003). In a typical
affective priming experiment, participants are asked to judge as quickly as they can whether a
picture is pleasant or unpleasant, and their response time is measured. Just before the picture
appears, a positive or negative word (e.g., beautiful, ugly) is flashed briefly on the screen; this
word is called the prime. Individuals typically respond more quickly when the valences of the
prime and the picture are congruent (both are positive or both are negative) than when they are
incongruent. In our retroactive version of the procedure, the prime appeared after rather than
before participants made their judgments of the pictures.
Because slower responding on congruent trials than on incongruent trials—called a contrast
effect—has also been observed in some priming experiments (Hermans, Spruyt, De Houwer, &
Feeling the Future 21
Eelen, 2003; Klauer, Teige-Mocigema, & Spruyt, 2009), we also ran a standard non-retroactive
priming procedure in each session to ensure that our protocol would produce the usual (non-
contrast) priming effect (see also, de Boer & Bierman, 2006). Because this turned out to be the
case, the psi hypothesis was that the retroactive procedure would also produce faster responding
on congruent trials than on incongruent trials.
As shown in the table, the standard forward priming procedure produced the usual result.
For example, with a 1,500-ms cutoff criterion and the inverse transformation, participants were
23.6 ms faster on congruent trials than on incongruent trials, t(96) = 4.91, p
Exploring time-reversed versions of established psychological phenomena was "a stroke of genius", says the sceptical Krueger. Previous research in parapsychology has used idiosyncratic set-ups such as Ganzfeld experiments, in which volunteers listen to white noise and are presented with a uniform visual field to create a state allegedly conducive to effects including clairvoyance and telepathy. By contrast, Bem set out to provide tests that mainstream psychologists could readily evaluate.
So far, the paper has held up to scrutiny. "This paper went through a series of reviews from some of our most trusted reviewers," says Charles Judd of the University of Colorado at Boulder, who heads the section of the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology editorial board that handled the paper.
Originally posted by Matrix Rising The problem I see is that people feel threatened by Psi because it doesn't agree with a belief system they may hold.