Solar Activity Watch 2011

reply to post by lasertaglover


This is a great post about the face CME:

Originally posted by Wildeagle
reply to post by ToneDeaf

 

I can totally see Edvard Munch scream face on the left side!

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/46b769fa21ab.jpg[/atsimg]

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/be74179e2331.jpg[/atsimg]

Nasa warns solar flare....

reply to post by LDragonFire



Or something positive.. an angel? Christ? All in perception I guess.
Very interesting times however you look at it; literally and figuratively - Keeps us on our toes...

reply to post by LDragonFire



Looks like the Monty Python God appearing over the sun (Monty Python and the Holy Grail for all who didn't know...I say shame on you!).

reply to post by 5senses


I like the idea of an angel better - I do see the wings!

reply to post by crazydaisy


I see solar flares.

Solar Activity As On Friday, Jan. 14, 2011

For Future References:

Solar wind
speed: 512.0 km/sec
density: 2.5 protons/cm3
Updated: Today at 2055 UT
------------------------------------
X-ray Solar Flares
6-hr max: B2 1709 UT Jan14
24-hr: C1 0331 UT Jan14
Updated: Today at: 2000 UT
------------------------------------
Sunspot number: 14
Updated 13 Jan 2011
------------------------------------
Spotless Days
Current Stretch: 0 days
2011 total: 0 days (0%)
2010 total: 51 days (14%)
2009 total: 260 days (71%)
Since 2004: 819 days
Typical Solar Min: 486 days
Updated 13 Jan 2011
------------------------------------
The Radio Sun
10.7 cm flux: 80 sfu
Updated 13 Jan 2011
------------------------------------
Planetary K-index
Now: Kp= 3 quiet
24-hr max: Kp= 3 quiet
------------------------------------
Interplanetary Mag. Field
Btotal: 3.9 nT
Bz: 0.3 nT south
Updated: Today at 2056 UT

Notes: SUNDIVING COMET STORM: 2010 ended with an unprecedented flurry of small comets diving into the Sun. Researchers say this could herald a much larger comet still to come. Get the full story from Science@NASA.

Source: Spaceweather

New one that probably caused the above picture, now coming around the bend:

SpaceWeather:

EMERGING ACTIVE REGION: A farside sunspot which has produced a number of strong flares and CMEs in recent days is emerging over the sun's eastern limb. We can now see it from Earth.

spaceweather.com...

Here it is:

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/197d6e2846af.jpg[/atsimg]

spaceweather.com...

reply to post by DontTreadOnMe

Last year's Solar Activity Thread was popular, and I thought it would be wise to get a new one ready for 2011.

I do not know if anyone has already mentioned my favorite website Layman's Sunspot Count They came up with a method to try and compare apples to apples as we head into a possible Grand Solar Minimum. They have some great daily pictures of the sun as well as monthly graphs.

They give A BRIEF HISTORY ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SUNSPOT COUNT.

....The evolution of the sunspot record has made it difficult to formulate a homogeneous record (the SIDC are doing a great job in a difficult arena). Before Wolfer there was mainly one primary observer who was at the mercy of local conditions. Today we have multiple observers that must put upward pressure on the historic counts, the SIDC have 80 observers covering the globe of which 30% are professional. These results are averaged over 24 hours to gain a result. Modern observatories mainly use the same magnification as Wolf's larger telescope but that is the only equal comparison. The aperture lenses are nearly twice the diameter and the focal lengths are more than twice the length of Wolf's 64x scope, the design of the optics is also unknown on the modern scopes which can also make quite a difference, these motor driven, auto cooled/no tube telescopes are a far cry from Wolf's telescopes. Wolf used a 1.5 K factor when using his smaller telescope, but 1.5 x zero is still zero. We must also be aware of modern counting methods that are different to Wolf's method, NOAA have decided to run their own system that is not designed to line up with the past. In essence they do not take on Wolfer's 0.6 reduction factor to account for the small spots and pores that Wolf did not count. NOAA have their method which differs from the historical record that is unfortunately prevalent across many media outlets.

The SIDC count is the internationally accepted standard that follows the Wolfer method. The Waldmeier step is currently built into this standard.

Isolating specks by setting a "Wolf like threshold" and adopting the SIDC count for the groups that make the grade the Layman’s Count although not perfect, attempts to redress some of the modern issues and should compare more favorably to Wolf’s reconstruction of the Dalton Minimum cycles....


The Monthly comparison graph clearly showing the different counting methods. The NOAA method departing from the Wolfer method by not adjusting the raw count (NOAA do not multiply by 0.6). The SIDC using the Wolfer formula (along with the Waldmeier scale factor) which I believe is flawed during times of high speck ratio....

To compare solar cycles we can also use the F10.7 radio flux values that have been recorded since 1947 in Canada. Solar cycle 20 was a weak cycle which is currently looking strong against solar cycle 24. Data is taken from the AU adjusted monthly average values.

SC20 & SC24 have a lot in common, they both experience angular momentum disturbance measured at the Sun. SC24 has a much higher degree of disturbance that will guarantee a lower cycle than SC20 if the theory is correct....

This "new" spot is pretty busy. Wonder if it will have anything for us the next few days when it turns more earthward.


More images where that came from
www.solarmonitor.org...

reply to post by rbkruspe


Looks like it has subsided just in time before it faces earth. Thats not to say it has completely died, more eruptions are possible of course.

ACTIVE SUNSPOT GOES QUIET: A few days ago, sunspot group 1147 was busily launching CMEs from the far side of the sun. Yesterday it turned toward Earth and immediately quieted down. Is this the calm before the storm? Stay tuned.

www.spaceweather.com...

Originally posted by quakewatcher
NOAA finally got around to posting a warning (I've been expecting one all afternoon, I think they were waiting until I left the house:

www.swpc.noaa.gov...

Active for about the next 18 hours.

I notice they (the SWPC) like to take their sweet time with warnings, alerts and advisories. I usually will check when I KNOW there is (or should be) an event and it shows nothing. Spaceweather is very slow imo for updates as well however they get their data from the SWPC as well so its up to when the website updates. Maybe I am just spoiled on terrestrial weather prediction centers and their prompt outlooks and timely warnings etc.

Since a lot of posters in this thread are familiar with SpaceWeather.com, has anyone else noticed that PHA list has been modified since that tiny, but close one came through the other day? I have been montioring this site for years now, and this is the first time I have seen the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid list altered like this, not showing anything else incoming. Anyone know why? For years they have always shown everything big near us, and now it is gone, and has been all day long.

Thanks in advance.

As of this moment, this is all it is showing:

Near Earth Asteroids

Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) are space rocks larger than approximately 100m that can come closer to Earth than 0.05 AU. None of the known PHAs is on a collision course with our planet, although astronomers are finding new ones all the time.

On January 18, 2011 there were 1183 potentially hazardous asteroids.


Recent & Upcoming Earth-asteroid encounters: Asteroid Date(UT) Miss Distance Mag. Size
2011 AH5 Jan 13 3.3 LD 26 28 m
2011 AY22 Jan 14 4.1 LD 27.1 17 m


Notes: LD means "Lunar Distance." 1 LD = 384,401 km, the distance between Earth and the Moon. 1 LD also equals 0.00256 AU. MAG is the visual magnitude of the asteroid on the date of closest approach.


spaceweather.com...

awesome thread...i recently installed JHelioviewer which is one hell of a tool..

might contribute to this thread..i hope XD

reply to post by logicalview


Makes me think that there are life forms keeping the earth from being harmed...

awesome tool

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/c0b189b47abd.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by heineken


That is awesome! thanks for that! i didint knew the software... s for you.

reply to post by lasertaglover


I have never seen Spaceweather not list near earth asteroids with dates, do they think we're afraid or something

Originally posted by crazydaisy
reply to post by lasertaglover

 

I have never seen Spaceweather not list near earth asteroids with dates, do they think we're afraid or something

are you speaking of the fact that the page is blank for the listings?

reply to post by lasertaglover


when i saw it,i tought they are now displaying only the "incoming" asteroid encounters,not the past ones,like they used to.