Chances of life "out there" explained, and how you probably have already met one or two

The odds that you met an extraterrestrial (You probably have)

How many stars are in the universe. Current esimates are at 18 sextillian stars in our known universe.(thats 18 with 42 zeros after it)

NOTE: The numbers given are highly conservative. It is almost positive that these numbers are grossly underestimated in the scope of someone saying there is about a million people on earth..however, its best to simply go with a severe underestimate than overestimating

I used a highly conservative number also of reduction to one tenth of one percent per phase.

I also used the conservative method of a single star houses only a single planet. our solar system alone has 9 planets...or 8 + Pluto..not to mention the moons around the planet. This simply uses 1 planet, no moons. The true numbers are astronomically larger than what I am using for this simple example.


Stars 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-Snip: Starting number. Very low end. extremely low end estimate for the known universe


habitable planets 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-A planet that is not magma or a ball of ice..Some protection from elements of space


Some form of life 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-microbial perhaps, very basic


Life somewhat advanced 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-some basic species..plantlife, insects, animals


Societys (primitive) 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-A dominant species with some intelligence. caves, tiny villages and gatherings


Societys (slight advance) 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

-industrial and progressing


societys (space age) 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

- Where we are at today. satellites, perhaps probes and visits to their local moon(s)


Interplanetary 18,000,000,000,000,000,000,000

- A slow colonization of their neighboring planets, space stations


intersolar 18,000,000,000,000,000,000

- full efforts to colonize their neighboring planets, some movement to explore nearby star systems and colonization efforts underway.


intersolar (advanced) 18,000,000,000,000,000

- Technological breakthrough to go to many other star systems and terraform/colonize. This is the "immortal" race where they can start losing entire star systems with no worry about making the race extinct.


galactic 18,000,000,000,000

-Race has explored their entire galaxy and is now shifting focus on nearby galaxys to explore and colonise


galactic advanced 18,000,000,000

- Race has many colonized planets in many different galaxys. They can never be extingished


hypergalactic 18,000,000

- Have technology that allows them to travel any distance with no problem, Have mapped out many galaxys, and the entire universe is like their living room.


mapmakers 18,000

- They have mapped out all planets housing life in all galaxys knowable. they have astounding amounts of probes sent all over to monitor all forms of life growing on every planet and watch the progression


visitors 18

- How many races are in some sort of contact with our own planet at the time


Chances you have met one in your life: 1 in 180

-That guy at the coffee shop that seemed slightly different to you. He looked normal enough (ahh the advancement of tech that allows for any form). Was he just a guy, or something else..someone simply monitoring



This is simply a basic chart of how likely it is ET is already here. The numbers are again heavily skewed and almost illogical in regards to the progression (1/10th of 1% going from gal-adv to hypergal is grossly underestimated)...but its interesting to look at the numbers

This does not also take into consideration other dimensions, other times (time travel?), etc..just what we see and know about the current nature of the universe.

So, the next time you hear someone suggest we may be the only life in the universe...toss these numbers at them.





Ref:
Number graph
Estimate life on other planets (he gives it 10% for most phases..I do much less
Findings of extrasolar planet habitable zones
Drakes Equasion breakdown (My equasion gives it less likelyhood)

That would explain it.

Hehe, S+F.

i don't think i have really met anyone who says we are the only life forms . Even the hardcore religious . We know there must be more life out there , your cute numbers do nothing really except sugar coat the chances of finding it .


Life will find us before we find it


Once they find us and see what we did to earth don't be surprised if they want the threat eliminated .

We are earths cancer i for one would be in favor if another intelligent life form wanted to destroy earths cancer. I think we would be doing the earth and the rest of her species a huge favor with mass extermination ....... i would sign up aslong as we all did !

Who is with me ? give me a HOORAH

I think that if we advanced enough to explore the galaxy and universe, and found no other life out there, I would become a firm believer in God..because that would be the only possible answer..nothing short of standard deity intervention could possibly produce that result.

If you took every single person on the planet and asked them to run a mile in 20 seconds then by your logic some of them would be able to do that.

Just because the numbers of planets are huge doesn't mean a thing, space is bigger, much bigger. The odds and percentages start to drastically fall when you factor in just how big space is and how long it takes to get around.

Originally posted by seedofchucky
i don't think i have really met anyone who says we are the only life forms . Even the hardcore religious . We know there must be more life out there ,

I have met several myself, mostly religious to some extent, or skeptical to a religious point.

your cute numbers do nothing really except sugar coat the chances of finding it .

ehh?

Life will find us before we find it

I think they have already, and have always. What better show than to watch a civilization grow

Once they find us and see what we did to earth don't be surprised if they want the threat eliminated .

Part of the number of going from society to interstellar takes into account the constant destruction of their own homeworld, eliminating the threat. Only a planet that learns peace with neighbors can truely get out of the nest due to the technological advancements needed..which in turn can end up blasting their entire planet apart.
I think it is likely they are simply sitting back and wagering if we will even make it to mars before blowing ourselves back to the stone age

We are earths cancer i for one would be in favor if another intelligent life form wanted to destroy earths cancer. I think we would be doing the earth and the rest of her species a huge favor with mass extermination ....... i would sign up aslong as we all did !

Your reality is a reflection of who you are. If you see humans as a cancer, well, then stop being a cancer and start changing your reality to what you want it to be. it may catch on...what have you done for your fellow human today beyond send negative feelings and actions towards them?

Who is with me ? give me a HOORAH

Naa.

Originally posted by DisbeIief
If you took every single person on the planet and asked them to run a mile in 20 seconds then by your logic some of them would be able to do that.

Just because the numbers of planets are huge doesn't mean a thing, space is bigger, much bigger. The odds and percentages start to drastically fall when you factor in just how big space is and how long it takes to get around.

I am thinking they won't be using steam engines to goto the next planet.

"Your reality is a reflection of who you are. If you see humans as a cancer, well, then stop being a cancer and start changing your reality to what you want it to be. it may catch on...what have you done for your fellow human today beyond send negative feelings and actions towards them?
"


i helped educate a few


i made a youtube educational video


i bought my buddy lunch


i helped debunk a picture for someone




Now i don't think you understood the cancer remark. you see we humans have to be greedy sons of b$##$ to get to the top of the food chain where we are today .


We mess with the earths atmosphere with haarp and other high powered stations to mess with differnt layers of he earths protection


We pollute on a massive level

We kill each other

We destroy parts of the earth

We run "experiments" to further endanger the earth

No species can even come close to telling us what to do


If we want an area we turn into a parking lot for our greedy needs


you can cry that these things are not our fault


but one thing that you cant cry about is we let these criminals in power and office without standing up for it


We are earths cancer this is not my reality this is everyones reality


you see so many people live under a rock like you that its easy to dismiss the obvious with your own dillusional version of reality =)

Originally posted by DisbeIief
Just because the numbers of planets are huge doesn't mean a thing, space is bigger, much bigger. The odds and percentages start to drastically fall when you factor in just how big space is and how long it takes to get around.

That's judging them by our limited understanding and technological abilities. IF they are an ancient race by our standard they could have technology we can only dream of. Folding space, Dimensional shifting, Time travel etc.

Riding a horse cross country from NY to LA would take weeks yet the retired SR-71 flew a similar distance in it's retirement flight in just over an hour.

18,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000

is not a "cute" number.

Originally posted by SaturnFX


I am thinking they won't be using steam engines to goto the next planet.

Well I'm thinking they won't. It comes down to opinion and neither of us knows for sure.

But I believe it's highly unlikely just as strongly as you believe it is likely.

Originally posted by SaturnFX

Originally posted by seedofchucky
i don't think i have really met anyone who says we are the only life forms . Even the hardcore religious . We know there must be more life out there ,

I have met several myself, mostly religious to some extent, or skeptical to a religious point.

your cute numbers do nothing really except sugar coat the chances of finding it .

ehh?

Life will find us before we find it

I think they have already, and have always. What better show than to watch a civilization grow

Once they find us and see what we did to earth don't be surprised if they want the threat eliminated .

Part of the number of going from society to interstellar takes into account the constant destruction of their own homeworld, eliminating the threat. Only a planet that learns peace with neighbors can truely get out of the nest due to the technological advancements needed..which in turn can end up blasting their entire planet apart.
I think it is likely they are simply sitting back and wagering if we will even make it to mars before blowing ourselves back to the stone age

We are earths cancer i for one would be in favor if another intelligent life form wanted to destroy earths cancer. I think we would be doing the earth and the rest of her species a huge favor with mass extermination ....... i would sign up aslong as we all did !

Your reality is a reflection of who you are. If you see humans as a cancer, well, then stop being a cancer and start changing your reality to what you want it to be. it may catch on...what have you done for your fellow human today beyond send negative feelings and actions towards them?

Who is with me ? give me a HOORAH

Naa.

" I have met several myself, mostly religious to some extent, or skeptical to a religious point"

Great any on ats i would love to hear there view on why this is the case?



ehh?"

Did i stuutttututer ?


" I think they have already, and have always. What better show than to watch a civilization grow"

How about to experiment on that civilzation ?

Why watch it grow when you can mingle in it and cause mass paranoia and make them fight each other



"Only a planet that learns peace with neighbors can truely get out of the nest due to the technological advancements needed"



def not earth . We have a hard time getting along with others who live on earth let alone with beings on differnt planets . Get out of your fairy tale and welcome back to reality

What you gonna blame the governments for this ? remember were the once who dont stand up and hide under rocks and rant on ats


"I think it is likely they are simply sitting back and wagering if we will even make it to mars before blowing ourselves back to the stone age"


yea sitting back enjoying the show they created . We made it to the moon back when ? with what little tech ? mars will be easy as cake . If we really landed on the moon.

"what have you done for your fellow human today beyond send negative feelings and actions towards them?"

Did i hurt our feelings boo boo ?

Originally posted by DisbeIief

Originally posted by SaturnFX


I am thinking they won't be using steam engines to goto the next planet.

Well I'm thinking they won't. It comes down to opinion and neither of us knows for sure.

But I believe it's highly unlikely just as strongly as you believe it is likely.

You can believe its highly unlikely, I can believe its highly likely.

I have numbers on my side of the argument..you have simply a disbelief (good name. heh)

Anyhow, this isn't proof of anything beyond a extreme likelyhood.in the same way that its extremely likely there are some snowflakes that are 12 sided. to deny it simply based on not seeing one in the few snowflakes you have looked at would be almost preposterous

Originally posted by ThinkingCap
18,00000000000000000000000000000000000000000

is not a "cute" number.

sure it is look at these other cute numbers

quadrillion , quintillion sextillion septillion octillion nonillion decillion undecillion duodecillion tredecillion quattuordecillion quindecillion sexdecillion septendecillion octodecillion novemdecillion vigintillion unvigintillion duovigintillion trevigintillion quattuorvigintillion quinvigintillion sexvigintillion septenvigintillion octovigintillion novemvigintillion trigintillion untrigintillion


10*99
duotrigintillion

Large Numbers for NOOBS

Originally posted by seedofchucky

" I have met several myself, mostly religious to some extent, or skeptical to a religious point"

Great any on ats i would love to hear there view on why this is the case?

Often they suggest how the universe was created for mankind to eventually fill up, or as a nice backdrop of what God can do, etc...nothing reasonable. I am sure some will chime in eventually

ehh?"

Did i stuutttututer ?

No, that bit simply didn't make alot of sense

" I think they have already, and have always. What better show than to watch a civilization grow"

How about to experiment on that civilzation ?

Why watch it grow when you can mingle in it and cause mass paranoia and make them fight each other

That is an option also, or if they have grown out of their juvenile stage, perhaps help us out a tiny bit to encourage joining in the "family". I would think though the most reasonable interaction would simply be to monitor...perhaps bat an asteroid out of the way if we are too primitive to do anything about it, but thats about it.

"Only a planet that learns peace with neighbors can truely get out of the nest due to the technological advancements needed"



def not earth . We have a hard time getting along with others who live on earth let alone with beings on differnt planets . Get out of your fairy tale and welcome back to reality

Actually, 2 minutes to midnight came and went. I think the most unnerving time in history was in the 50s/60s when the USSR and America had nukes pointed at each other and both sides cheering for the end. It seems calmer heads won the day. We are by no means out of the woods mind you, but I think as time progresses, the world is slowly leaning towards less earth ending means to an end.
If course you can be cynical about it until every nuke is removed, and its good to be cynical and questioning, but I personally see this time to be far less dangerous than times we have lived through before.

What you gonna blame the governments for this ? remember were the once who dont stand up and hide under rocks and rant on ats

The government is simply a clear representation of the people. We get what we deserve. You cannot blame the government for anything overall that is not acceptable in mainstream society.

"I think it is likely they are simply sitting back and wagering if we will even make it to mars before blowing ourselves back to the stone age"


yea sitting back enjoying the show they created . We made it to the moon back when ? with what little tech ? mars will be easy as cake . If we really landed on the moon.

We have satellites and a space station. That much is undeniable. The moon hoax theory is bunk..real dodgy "evidence" showing it to be a hoax..just some sort of weird anti-wishful thinking that we are progressing. But I guess everyone is entitled to their opinion, just not their own facts.

"what have you done for your fellow human today beyond send negative feelings and actions towards them?"

Did i hurt our feelings boo boo ?

ehh?

reply to post by SaturnFX


"Anyhow, this isn't proof of anything beyond a extreme likelyhood"


Now you understand the sugarcoated number comment !

Originally posted by SaturnFX
You can believe its highly unlikely, I can believe its highly likely.

I have numbers on my side of the argument..you have simply a disbelief (good name. heh)

Anyhow, this isn't proof of anything beyond a extreme likelyhood.in the same way that its extremely likely there are some snowflakes that are 12 sided. to deny it simply based on not seeing one in the few snowflakes you have looked at would be almost preposterous

Your numbers are flawed as you assume a lot. Without the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs chances are we wouldn't exist. They did for a long time and I've yet to see any dinosaur spaceships or dinosaur advanced technology. Time certainly didn't help them.

As I said, space is huge, bigger than your numbers, in fact it makes your numbers look tiny. There obviously are many inhabited planets, there have to be human type creatures on some of them. But using your numbers against you, chances are they're too far away. Certainly far enough away to make vacation trips less than practical.

I'm happy believing what I do as you are hardly proving anything as you stated. Different opinions, wouldn't life be boring without them.

Originally posted by seedofchucky
reply to post by SaturnFX

 

"Anyhow, this isn't proof of anything beyond a extreme likelyhood"


Now you understand the sugarcoated number comment !

Not really, the "sugarcoated" numbers is actually sourcoated..I gave the lowest possible chance percentage from phase to phase, murdering drakes equasion in the process to make it far less likely than what even skeptics (the non religious variety) give. The only difference is I used a universe of stars verses a galaxy of stars which makes the numbers bigger

Drakes equasion tends to focus on the galaxy, and when you start counting that way, the numbers decrease to a maybe/maybe not sort of viewpoint.

I am actually not even sure of what your trying to state in this thread beyond...government sucks (which I think you may be in the wrong thread for anti-government rants)

Originally posted by seedofchucky

We are earths cancer i for one would be in favor if another intelligent life form wanted to destroy earths cancer. I think we would be doing the earth and the rest of her species a huge favor with mass extermination ....... i would sign up aslong as we all did !

Who is with me ? give me a HOORAH

I think you have it wrong - We are Earth's child.

If you look at the relationship between a mother and her baby from the point of conception, the baby does nothing but take, take and take, even to the point of putting the mothers health at risk from lack of her own nourishment, it is very similar to a parasite, but no, the baby is part of the mother.

Even after birth, the baby continues to cling, suck from and deplete the mother(The Earth) until one day that baby has grown and learns to feed itself from another source then the mother. The father provides nearly everything that is needed from this point onward (The Sun).

If the Earth is our Mother then the Sun is surely our Father, and we have to look to harnessing the Sun in order to allow our mother to regenerate her own health - And perhaps bring her a cup of tea once in a while.

In the meantime while we continue to suckle, lets be SO grateful to our mother that she just didnt wip out the coat hanger millions of years ago.

Originally posted by DisbeIief

Your numbers are flawed as you assume a lot. Without the meteorite that killed the dinosaurs chances are we wouldn't exist. They did for a long time and I've yet to see any dinosaur spaceships or dinosaur advanced technology. Time certainly didn't help them.

Do you honestly think that there is only one pattern of life? Dino spaceships? really? Is that what your thinking? -sighs-
And yes, the numbers account for disasters such as meteorites destroying life, mega solar flares toasting the world early on, etc...its why its only 1/10th of 1% per phase..because 99.9% of all other variations die off or perm stagnate for some reason before reaching the next phase.

As I said, space is huge, bigger than your numbers, in fact it makes your numbers look tiny. There obviously are many inhabited planets, there have to be human type creatures on some of them. But using your numbers against you, chances are they're too far away. Certainly far enough away to make vacation trips less than practical.

Exactly how far is easy to get to verses improbable anyhow? Lets go with todays common theory as a starting point of bending space. you can cross space by bending two points of limitless length..go from here to andromeda in about 3 seconds just crossing a small point and going about 10 miles an hour through the wormhole.
If this is turned into a functional technology, then the point between planets becomes nul and void. Do some research on what our scientists today are working on in hypothetical sciences...now multiply this by a million years of piggybacked research into the field...you still think distance will matter?

Again, your giving the argument that there will never be any scientific progression...and yes, if we are at some sort of technological zenith, then for sure this is it...however, I am thinking we are to progress as ancient romans were to progress...soo primitive yet thinking we have truely mastered it all.

I'm happy believing what I do as you are hardly proving anything as you stated. Different opinions, wouldn't life be boring without them.

Agreed. If everyone agreed, nobody would feel the need to prove the other wrong...and that is a great catalist for innovation. religious debunkers fuel progression if only to say "told you so".