Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by gringoboy

If large masses on the earth's surface are moved to different latitudes, then their distance perpendicular to the axis of rotation also changes. Moving large masses closer to the equator will result in a calculable (or even measureable) reduction in the rate of rotation; moving masses towards the poles will cause an increase in that rate. That's the principle of conservation of angular momentum, and it's the principle that is known and studied to evaluate the effects of such things as (eg) changing sea levels and land masses on the earth's rotational rate. It's all about where the mass is on the planet's surface.

The mechanism for and energy involved in actually moving the masses over the surface is a separate issue. In this case, the energy to move Honshu derived from the subduction event. Much of Honshu moved SE, very slightly closer to the equator. It is then slightly further from the axis of rotation (measured perpendicularly) and this effects the rate of rotation. Even allowing for action-reaction components of that surface movement, its mass was sufficient to cause a reduction in the rate of rotation -- albeit a very small one.

Here's a link to an interview with Dr Richard Gross of JPL that I've just found. He explains this better than I can. But he also points out (in reference to the Japan quake) that

...it's the global displacement of the mass of the Earth that was important for the Earth's rotation to change.

We didn't discuss the effects of the quake on the earth's axis but that was also affected by the movement of mass (of much of Honshu) in the same way. In respect of the axis, he had this to say:

But the Earth - the mass of the Earth is not balance about its rotation axis, and so it wobbles as it rotates, just like an out-of-balance tire on your car vibrates as it rotates. And it's that axis about which the mass is balanced is what shifted during this earthquake. The earthquake rearranges the mass of the Earth, and therefore the figure axis moved by about six-and-a-half inches.

In summary, it's where the masses are on the earth's surface that affect its rotational rate (and also its axis).

EDIT to add: sorry, I also meant to include this:
reply to post by gringoboy


You're right, and I'm amazed at how little has been said about this fact in recent days. As those stresses are likely to be far from uniform we can only wonder at what might occur in the months or years to come. Makes me wonder if the fault that runs up through Honshu might become more active. (But I hope it doesn't. They have enough to deal with already)

Best regards,

Mike

Just saw a posting on another thread that Japan just had another large quake.
Has anyone detected anything. They said if was announced on CNN but I am
not seeing it - just turned it on.

I've been watching the Ring of Fire, on the supposition that if you release tension / pressure in one area, you should see a similar or equivalent release/movement on the other side. (Or so I have been wondering.)

With the Honsho region or the Ring of Fire being where pressure was let off; would we eventually see an equivalent energy releases along the Ring of Fire? Or something more along a series of small 'unzipping' quakes along the ring with a bigger shake one that would occur later on?

An' while the tsunami was a form of energy release, I don't think it accounts for all the force(s) involved.

M.

reply to post by crazydaisy


I see nothing listed yet?

Any more details?

Nothing on USGS or EMSC

Kyodonews.com

URGENT: Strong quake hits Kanto region, no tsunami warning issued

TOKYO, March 24, Kyodo

A strong earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 4.9 Thursday morning jolted the Kanto region surrounding Tokyo, registering lower 5 on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 in the southern part of Ibaraki Prefecture, the Japan Meteorological Agency said.

No tsunami warning was issued following the 8:56 a.m. quake.

Ibaraki is one of the areas severely damaged in the March 11 catastrophic quake, and is located south of Fukushima Prefecture, the home of the troubled nuclear power plant.


This must be it - what would the magnitude be on our scales as Japanses scale only goes to 7?

reply to post by crazydaisy


Thanks

It was just exactly that, a 4.9

Date/Time UTC,Latitude,Longitude,Magnitude,Depth(Km),Location
2011-03-23T23:56:53.000Z,36.37000,139.80000,4.9000,80.0000,EASTERN HONSHU JAPAN

Source: My database based on USGS and EMSC data.

Sorry, forgot to answer your question. I believe that relates to the equivalent on the Mercali scale not the magnitude.

Somewhere the difference has been posted - I think by Muzzy - so it should be on the thread.


Here you are, it was on page 58

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Honshu Daily Energy Graph 23 Mar

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/da8f77f3524c.jpg[/atsimg]

Based on data from USGS

Magnitude 4.7 REYKJAVIK, Iceland

Source-USGS

reply to post by JustMike


Thing is what is being obviously omitted is the science fact that the moon stabilizes earth wobble and centrifuge,but for some mysterious reason there is never a open disclosure on that apart from that the moon affects tides,in effect the moon is the weight on the tyre of your automobile and this is what is continually denied by scientist as having a effect on earthquakes and yet
You see what I mean,the moving of a supposed island a few centimetres is relatively insignificant thats what they intend you to believe,that island is still small compared to the whole mass regardless.
So in essence if we move the giza plataeu 1 metre the planets axis is going to change,this is kinda lame,put all the cars,animals,sealife,humans and everything else moving on the planet in one place and the planets axis changes as that is effectively what your saying,but don`t forget the Moon is the stabilizer so therefore regardless of the centripical force the moon is the proverbial chuck on your car tyre no matter what moves where on earth..
Thats my point and is clearly demonstrated in the excert above,for some reason physicists play down the moon but yet tell you if it were`nt there all hell would break loose,think about it why do they not want people everyday to consider where the moon is !Because they know if you know its not where its supposed to be then earth changes are afoot.Afterall its the easiest object to notice any changes too,if a person does not know there sky they certainly will notice a change to the moon and therefore know somethings up,common sense,even the wildlife know it ,its just our ignorance that scientists want us to rely on when they say ohh...earthquakes and the moon ,next you`ll be howling at it they say,but.
Its a big think,and I `am awake and aware..
Just the same as the pole star,another precise measure of any change in axis,look up is it where its supposed to be?
The moon ,sirius and the pole star are the three main objects to watch for extreme major catastrophic indicators,do you know where they should be,does anybody,some amatuer astronomy only takes 5 minutes to learn or download stellarium,see if ya notice !.
peace gringo

Two for REYKJANES RIDGE

Magnitude
4.7
Date-Time
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 05:17:22 UTC
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 03:17:22 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
59.508°N, 30.365°W
Depth
10 km (6.2 miles)
Region
REYKJANES RIDGE
Distances
679 km (421 miles) SW of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
743 km (461 miles) SW of Vik, Iceland
773 km (480 miles) SSE of Tasiilaq (Angmagssalik), Greenland
1974 km (1226 miles) NE of SAINT JOHN'S, Nfld. and Labrador, Canada
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16 km (9.9 miles); depth +/- 3.6 km (2.2 miles)
Parameters
NST= 84, Nph= 84, Dmin=751.4 km, Rmss=0.52 sec, Gp= 90°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=8
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0002a8f

Magnitude
4.7
Date-Time
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 05:23:25 UTC
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 03:23:25 AM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
59.438°N, 30.313°W
Depth
8.7 km (5.4 miles)
Region
REYKJANES RIDGE
Distances
684 km (425 miles) SW of REYKJAVIK, Iceland
746 km (463 miles) SW of Vik, Iceland
782 km (485 miles) SSE of Tasiilaq (Angmagssalik), Greenland
1972 km (1225 miles) NE of SAINT JOHN'S, Nfld. and Labrador, Canada
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 22.3 km (13.9 miles); depth +/- 6.4 km (4.0 miles)
Parameters
NST= 63, Nph= 63, Dmin=755.9 km, Rmss=0.7 sec, Gp= 90°,
M-type=body wave magnitude (Mb), Version=6
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0002a8p

earthquake.usgs.gov...

I should have posted this here earlier, I got busy though and have been monitoring the nuclear situation in Japan as kinda a #1 priority.

Concerning the 4.9 in Japan earlier on (yesterday March 23):

I bring this up because it was noted in this thread that reports were coming out of Japan that this was a large quake on the scale of 7 or so.. And people felt it thinking it was much bigger than what USGS had reported it as being.

Specifically, I'm talking about this quake:

MAP 4.9 2011/03/23 23:56:50 36.161 140.009 59.3 NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN

earthquake.usgs.gov...

The depth of this quake was actually a little deeper than most of the quakes in the region on March 23'rd. I'm having some trouble trying to understand why this quake out of hundreds of aftershocks 5.0 - 6.0+ taking place since the 11th gained enough attention for it to be breaking news in Japan.

Anyone have any ideas on that?

Edit: I see that Puterman addressed the Mercali scale explanation for the *7* reading. I'd still like to know why this one felt much greater and became a breaking news headline for the Japanese.

reply to post by Wookiep

No doubt due to the location, near built up areas

JMA Intensity map for that 4.9

If you look on the links on my post yesterday of the plots usgs and jma you'll see there have been very few aftershocks on land (Honshu)

you seen the pdf for JMA Intensity (page 11) page?, 5- ( 5 lower) JMA = MM7

Magnitude
6.1
Date-Time
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 08:21:01 UTC
Thursday, March 24, 2011 at 05:21:01 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones
Location
39.120°N, 142.155°E
Depth
36.8 km (22.9 miles)
Region
NEAR THE EAST COAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN
Distances
107 km (66 miles) SE of Morioka, Honshu, Japan
146 km (90 miles) NE of Sendai, Honshu, Japan
165 km (102 miles) SSE of Hachinohe, Honshu, Japan
436 km (270 miles) NNE of TOKYO, Japan
Location Uncertainty
horizontal +/- 16.3 km (10.1 miles); depth +/- 5 km (3.1 miles)
Parameters
NST=267, Nph=282, Dmin=332.8 km, Rmss=0.7 sec, Gp= 54°,
M-type=regional moment magnitude (Mw), Version=9
Source
USGS NEIC (WDCS-D)
Event ID
usc0002ab5

earthquake.usgs.gov...

Someone might want to check out the seismograms, namely the following locations, following the link:

aslwww.cr.usgs.gov...

Dagmar, Montana
Konza Prarie, Kansas
New Hope, South Carolina

As of March 24, 2011 03:35:00 MDT

The japanese report their quakes with the shindo scale, which measures the degree of shaking.

There are 2 different type of reporting for earthquakes on their tv (suspected shindo 2-4+ and shindo 5- or higher). All of their tv stations flashes a text on top of the tv screen if shindo 2 or larger has occured.

I'm not exactly sure how does some smaller tv stations proceed during a 5- or higher, but all the news channels and at least the NHK general TV does the following. If shindo 5- or higher occurs, the news channels will be showing more than just the flash of the eq info text on top of the screen, the broadcast will be making a rather disturbing beeping, and a voice is stating that a strong earthquake has just occured. Then the news broadcast is cut, and the tv anchor guy or girl is starting to repeat instructions for safety measures. Additional information is then given as news comes to hand. Such as a map of japan, and the shindo scale felt at different areas. Usually it is a richter magnitude 4-6 quake which has an epicenter on land and is not very deep, which makes the alarms ring, as in the case talked on this pg79 there is a small area near the epicenter that can feel it as shindo5- or higher.

For example the M9.0 quite far at the sea was felt as shindo 6+ or 7 around Miyagi prefecture, shindo5+ in Tokyo area, and even shindo3 in Osaka area. One of the largest aftershocks that had epicenter right on northern shizuoka (M6.2, 10km), was felt as 6+ in that area, while the M9.0 was felt as around shindo 5- in that area (I didn't check this one, but my estimate). This shizuoka aftershock was either 4- or 4+ around tokyo, over 100km to the east. The one you are talking about on page79 in this thread seems to have been M5.0, 53km epicenter inland near residence, which has a good chance making their alarms ring being shindo5- in the area (yuki city, ibaraki prefecture), thus making a bit of news.

If someone is interested to see the really-up-to-the-second/minute earthquake warning system on their television in action, here is a youtube video of NHK General TV when the huge M9.0 hits far in the sea. While you might not understand what they are saying, the atmosphere speaks for itself. They are reporting in the midst of shindo 5+ quake. 　www.youtube.com... The same stuff from different tv stations is available in related vids

Here's the link for shindo value explanations:
en.wikipedia.org...

Here's just an outline from the wiki for those higher shindo values. Can see from the wikilink for how it affects buildings etc.

4+

Many people are frightened. Some people try to escape from danger. Most sleeping people awake.

5-

Most people try to escape from a danger. Some people find it difficult to move.

5+

Many people are considerably frightened and find it difficult to move.

6-

Difficult to keep standing.

6+

Impossible to keep standing and to move without crawling.

7- and higher

Thrown by the shaking and impossible to move at will.

reply to post by inthemistandfog


Thanks for that. As demonstrated yesterday a Mag 4.9 was a shindo 7. As commented yesterday this is a scale of intensity like the Mercali scale and not a scale of magnitude.

By the same token earthquakes much smaller than the Tokohu or Banda Aceh quakes can also unleash a very destructive Tsunami as outlined in this 1947 report of the Mekran Earthquake of the 28th November 1945. Note that although the term tsunami that we use all the time now even for very small waves, was obviously not in common use at that time. It gets mentioned once in passing but all the way through the document it is referred to as a seismic sea wave. This was a 6.7 Richter quake that produced a 40ft to 50ft tsunami wave.

@Muzzy: This document mentions some other large quakes you might want to check.

reply to post by PuterMan


maybe uou mean it was a 5- in the scale of 7.

not sure if shindo7 was possible with M4.9, even if it the depth was less than 1km ..

Watch the area of Central Asia north of the Indian Plate. I think it's overdue, and there may even be a major quake. Watch from Iran eastward to India-China border.

Just curious. I'm noticing microsiemic noise on Arkansas's webicorders. And I am seeing it on Yellowstone's as well. I don't want to start studying any other areas, and since I'm not familiar with any other area, I would like to know if anyone of you have seen an increase in the areas you are watching?

And if you could explain the exact source of this noise that would affect both Yellowstone and Arkansas, I'd really appreciate that. I got some ideas, and I've heard that it was possibly tidal forces, but nothing concrete.

I'm thinking groundwater.

reply to post by Robin Marks


7.0 just hit MYANMAR
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Sounds like you are pretty close.

That's one that will probably get revised.

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
reply to post by Robin Marks

 

7.0 just hit MYANMAR
earthquake.usgs.gov...

Sounds like you are pretty close.

The quake was pretty deep: (not that that means nothing will happen)

DEPTH
229.4 km (142.5 miles) set by location program

DISTANCE FROM SURROUNDING AREAS
* 111 km (69 miles) N (3°) from Chiang Rai, Thailand
* 155 km (96 miles) SW (219°) from Yunjinghong, Yunnan, China
* 252 km (156 miles) NNE (22°) from Chiang Mai, Thailand
* 434 km (270 miles) NW (319°) from VIENTIANE, Laos

[Edit To Add]

Quite a bit of action on the Google Instant feed. Seems some MSM sources have picked up on this. Hope it wasn't too bad.