Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by PuterMan

It got demoted... Funny how that doesn't surprise me.

Just by the way for anyone who's following this, there have now been two little aftershocks (fair enough term this time) in that area, both very close to the epicentre of the former mag 4.9 which is now a mag 4.5.

A mag 2.8 shortly followed by a mag 2.9:

Magnitude 2.8
Date-Time

* Monday, January 03, 2011 at 12:10:08 UTC
* Monday, January 03, 2011 at 05:10:08 AM at epicenter

Location 38.258°N, 112.334°W
Depth 0.2 km (~0.1 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region UTAH
Distances

* 10 km (6 miles) WNW (284°) from Junction, UT
* 11 km (7 miles) NNW (331°) from Circleville, UT
* 14 km (9 miles) WNW (294°) from Kingston, UT
* 204 km (127 miles) ENE (69°) from Caliente, NV
* 280 km (174 miles) S (188°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 1.8 km (1.1 miles); depth +/- 16.2 km (10.1 miles)
Parameters NST= 8, Nph= 8, Dmin=27 km, Rmss=0.45 sec, Gp= 90°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=0
Source

* University of Utah Seismograph Stations

Event ID uu00005269
************************************************************************
And the second one:

Magnitude 2.9
Date-Time

* Monday, January 03, 2011 at 12:26:58 UTC
* Monday, January 03, 2011 at 05:26:58 AM at epicenter
* Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 38.218°N, 112.320°W
Depth 0.2 km (~0.1 mile) (poorly constrained)
Region UTAH
Distances

* 7 km (4 miles) NW (322°) from Circleville, UT
* 9 km (5 miles) WSW (257°) from Junction, UT
* 12 km (7 miles) W (276°) from Kingston, UT
* 204 km (127 miles) ENE (70°) from Caliente, NV
* 284 km (177 miles) S (188°) from Salt Lake City, UT

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 1.2 km (0.7 miles); depth +/- 9.6 km (6.0 miles)
Parameters NST= 26, Nph= 26, Dmin=23 km, Rmss=0.57 sec, Gp= 58°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=0
Source

* University of Utah Seismograph Stations

Event ID uu00005271

Not serious quakes by any stretch, but an interesting series and worth having logged, I think.

Mike

reply to post by JustMike


Yes I will call those aftershocks!

Re Chile, I am finding that what we see is in no way what is eventually in the catalogs.

Catalog,Date and Time UTC, Latitude, Longitude,Number of Stns, Depth, Location
USGS 2010-02-27T07:12:28.000Z, -33.8074, -71.9132, 186, 35, offshore Valparaiso. Chile
ANSS 2010-02-27T07:12:28.000Z, -33.878, -71.943, 291, 35

The first is the one I got from the 7 day data. The second is in the ANNS catalogue. Note in particular the Latitude difference.

In addition to this there are many more in the ANSS catalogue than I originally collected. My only problem is that the ANSS catalogue stops in July at present so it could be a long while before I can get an accurate view of 2010.

Whilst it will make little difference to my analysis, many of these missing ones are mag 5 range.

Here is a sample block:

2010tfaw, us, us, A, 2010-02-27T07:19:48.000Z, -35.822, -72.836, 5.4, Mb
CHILE201002272031, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:20:43.000Z, -37.688, -73.754, 4.9, Mb
CHILE201002272032, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:21:33.000Z, -37.964, -74.126, 5.1, Mb
CHILE201002272033, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:23:16.000Z, -36.924, -73.594, 5.6, Mb
CHILE201002272034, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:29:10.000Z, -34.992, -72.622, 5.2, Mb
CHILE201002272035, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:29:43.000Z, -35.819, -72.818, 5.4, Mb
CHILE201002272036, NEI, NEIC, A, 2010-02-27T07:30:30.000Z, -34.907, -72.817, 5.2, Mb
2010tfbf, us, us, 6, 2010-02-27T07:33:31.000Z, -38.0068, -73.4838, 5.6, M

6 quakes in 10 minutes that were not reported at the time and all bar one a good 5.

further to post by muzzy

IC that EMSC have buckled under and downgraded the Chile quake to 7.1Mw
www.emsc-csem.org...

Interesting how the info comes in and how they get their final result, the incoming data starts at the bottom of the list, the RedBold is the final result.
What is REALLY interesting is the bottom 2, 33 seconds before the time of the quake given by all the networks
This could be useful as an early warning, I have known about this page for some time, its off a button on EMSC's main list page www.emsc-csem.org... just under the logo where it says For Siesmolgists" , but I won't link to it directly as I might get in trouble, go see for yourself.

I have never been live on the page and seen something develop into a major quake, but have seen previous quakes with precursor incoming data similar to this.

Date/TimeUTC, Lat, Long, Depth, MagType, Mag, Auto/Manual, Region Name, Network
2011-01-02 20:20:21.9, 38.16 , S, 73.12 , W, 18, , Mw, 7.3, A, BIO-BIO, CHILE, SC3
2011-01-02 20:20:19.3, 38.26 , S, 73.36 , W, 32, , Mw, 7.1, M+, BIO-BIO, CHILE, INFO
2011-01-02 20:20:18.8, 38.20 , S, 73.24 , W, 10, , M , 6.9, A!, BIO-BIO, CHILE, GFZ
2011-01-02 20:20:18.4, 38.30 , S, 73.40 , W, 32, , Mw, 7.5, A:, BIO-BIO, CHILE, BGSG
2011-01-02 20:20:18.1, 38.35 , S, 73.28 , W, 25, , M , 7.1, M, ARAUCANIA, CHILE, NEIR
2011-01-02 20:20:17.1, 38.20 , S, 73.40 , W, 15, , Mw, 7.0, A, BIO-BIO, CHILE, MWMM
2011-01-02 20:20:16.3, 38.37 , S, 73.44 , W, 15, , Ms, 7.2, M, ARAUCANIA, CHILE, GSRC
2011-01-02 20:20:10.8, 37.16 , S, 76.41 , W, 2, , mb, 6.9, M, OFF COAST OF BIO-BIO, CHILE, MAD
2011-01-02 20:20:00.0, 38.30 , S, 73.60 , W, , , Mw, 7.2, M, OFFSHORE BIO-BIO, CHILE, PTWC
2011-01-02 20:20:00.0, 38.00 , S, 73.00 , W, , , Mw, 7.1, M, ARAUCANIA, CHILE, PPTm
2011-01-02 20:19:46.5, 64.48 , S, 80.78 , W, 33, , mb, 5.1, A, SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, NOR
2011-01-02 20:19:36.4, 50.58 , S, 100.61 , W, 30, , , , A, SOUTHERN PACIFIC OCEAN, GFU

heres is a map showing the locations of those 2 pre quake plots by NOR and GFU






edit: the EMSC result also contains various locations based on the above data on this map (similar to what I did with comparing the Networks
www.emsc-csem.org...

reply to post by muzzy


Not quite sure what you are driving at here muzzy. Norsar and Prague may have contributed phase data, but they certainly did not do it BEFORE the event.

The fact that they got it so wildly wrong is hardly surprising considering the time delay?

This is the final entry in the USGS phase data:
D05A eP 20:33:41.67 0.8 95.6 329 D05A

This is the data from Prague:
Sta Dist EvAz Phase Time TRes Azim AzRes Slow SRes Def SNR Amp Per Qual Magnitude ArrID
ARSA 139.21 68.9 P 20:38:59.528 -0.3 T__ 7.1 a_i 0.0 549117
BRG 139.97 63.2 P 20:39:01.213 0.0 T__ 7.7 a_i 0.0 549118
CLL 139.63 62.2 P 20:39:00.230 -0.4 T__ 4.4 a_i 0.0 549119
DAVA 135.92 66.0 P 20:38:54.101 0.3 T__ 4.8 a_i 0.0 549120
KRUC 140.58 66.8 P 20:39:02.045 -0.2 T__ 11.1 a_i 0.0 549121
KSP 141.30 64.2 P 20:39:04.051 0.5 T__ 5.2 a_i 0.0 549122
MORC 141.56 66.3 P 20:39:03.750 -0.3 T__ 11.0 a_i 0.0 549123
MOX 138.56 62.5 P 20:38:58.569 -0.1 T__ 9.8 a_i 0.0 549124
OJC 143.06 66.7 P 20:39:07.117 0.4 T__ 8.4 a_i 0.0 549125
OKC 141.94 66.5 P 20:39:05.195 0.5 T__ 6.5 a_i 0.0 549126
PSZ 142.12 70.1 P 20:39:05.095 0.1 T__ 3.9 a_i 0.0 549127
PVCC 140.18 63.9 P 20:39:01.745 0.2 T__ 10.9 a_i 0.0 549128
UPC 141.00 64.6 P 20:39:02.695 -0.3 T__ 8.2 a_i 0.0 549129
VRAC 140.80 66.6 P 20:39:02.618 -0.1 T__ 8.9 a_i 0.0 549130
WET 138.58 65.1 P 20:38:58.300 -0.4 T__ 4.2 a_i 0.0 549131

Note it does not start until 20:38, a fraction over 5 minutes from the last USGS entry. So why so late, and likewise Norsar?
Onset time :2011-002:20.39.15.250 Jan 02 Sunday
Detection time :2011-002:20.39.14.205 C166

In the shadow zone

Okay you guys, I am now CONVINCED about my dogs and earthquakes.

Last night, I was exchanging emails with a local ATS'er regarding our seismic activity. As I was signing off, my dog started acting SOOOO wierd, that I sent this email:

from: westcoast
sent: 3-1-2011 at 06:27 AM
Okay, so I was on my way to bed when my little dog started freaking out.

She is shaking and clinging to me. I have never seen her this way...hope we aren't gonna get a quake!!

Take care-



Now....that is ATS time.. I am on the West coast of the states and it was 12:27 AM.

They just updated USGS with this quake:


1.1
Date-Time Monday, January 03, 2011 at 08:33:14 UTC
Monday, January 03, 2011 at 12:33:14 AM at epicenter

Location 48.229°N, 122.579°W
Depth 12.1 km (7.5 miles) set by location program
Region PUGET SOUND REGION, WASHINGTON
Distances 8 km (5 miles) E (81°) from Coupeville, WA
8 km (5 miles) WNW (300°) from Camano, WA
9 km (6 miles) SE (141°) from Oak Harbor, WA
67 km (41 miles) ESE (116°) from Saanich, British Columbia, Canada
69 km (43 miles) NNW (345°) from Seattle, WA

Location Uncertainty horizontal +/- 2.4 km (1.5 miles); depth fixed by location program
Parameters NST= 11, Nph= 12, Dmin=7 km, Rmss=0.27 sec, Gp= 94°,
M-type=duration magnitude (Md), Version=1
Source Pacific Northwest Seismograph Network

Event ID uw01030833




Note the local time of 12:33 AM ?????


Yes, this was a very small quake, but it was VERY close to me. (probably around 20 miles)


If my dog EVER acts like that again.....I am going to be very nervous. She was literally shaking, sitting on my feet and wouldn't even take a treat. I had to hold her under a blanket and pet, coo to her for almost 20 minutes before she settled down. It was bizarre. (my other dog was doing his looking around wierd and barking at nothing) I checked the seismos last night ofcourse, but they didn't add it until late this morning.

2.3 at Mt. St Helens.
MAP 2.3 2011/01/03 20:32:48 46.199 -122.179 0.3 0 km ( 0 mi) SE of Mount St. Helens Volcano, WA

Magnitude 3.7
Date-Time Monday, January 03, 2011 at 21:03:14 UTC
Monday, January 03, 2011 at 09:03:14 PM at epicenter

Location 53.767°N, 1.508°W
Depth 10 km (6.2 miles) set by location program
Region ENGLAND, UNITED KINGDOM
Distances NEAR Leeds, England, UK
45 km (30 miles) N of Sheffield, England, UK
55 km (35 miles) ENE of Manchester, England, UK
270 km (165 miles) NNW of LONDON, United Kingdom

Location Uncertainty Error estimate not available
Parameters NST= 3, Nph= 3, Dmin=115.5 km, Rmss=0 sec, Gp=205°,
M-type=local magnitude (ML), Version=5
Source CEA Lab. de Détection et de Géophysique, Bruyères-le-Châtel, France


Event ID us2011frb5

reply to post by westcoast


Animals are EQ sensitive. Get a copy of "When The Snakes Awake." It's very facinating. They think there is a low frequency electromagnetic feild that affects them. Some people think there is metal in the brain that animals and people can pick up. So, pay attention to the little guy and give him a hug for me.

reply to post by westcoast


SOME animals are sensitive, just like SOME people are too.

We have had 3 Newfoundland dogs and 3 cats over the years and we get earthquakes quite regularily, like at least one a month that humans feel, and dozens that just happen and no one reports them, none of our animals EVER showed signs of distress or unrest or even raised an eyebrow prior to a earthquake.
The only movement came when us humans were rolling out of bed heading for the doorway, the animals probably thought it was playtime, dinner time or we were going for a walk

Maybe your other dog was freaking out just because the other one was acting strange

No Mag 7's today

reply to post by Anmarie96


OK, I don't understand why the USGS picks up tiddlers in England and not elsewhere.

Looking after it's lapdog?

@muzzy: "No Mag 7's today" you wanted one?

reply to post by PuterMan


I am thinking they listed it as another member here started a thread about feeling it - and a number of people jumped in claiming to feel it. If you look at the USGS they also look into and report on felt quakes - just a thought.

The after shock debate

It has taken me all day to get the data together and into the database, with a few distractions, but finally here is the graph.

This is from 1963 so does not include the big one sonce ANSS do not have any data before 1963. This looks a bit messy as it is a large amount of data.



You can see a steady ramp up of the cummulative, with a little blip in 1985. It is averaging around 50 a year - actually about 500 every 11 to 12 years right up to 2010. Then BAM!!

That rate has NOT got back to normal yet. Based on the last 30 days i is still running at over one hundred a year.

Take a look at this from 2003 onwards.



You can see quite clearly on this graph that the ramp rate has not got back to it's normal level.

I suggest that Chile is still suffering aftershocks from the Feb 2010 8.8 and you cannot yet say that anything under that level is a new set.

I rest my case m'lud.

reply to post by PuterMan


I would like to ask a favour if you dont mind as i feel its very important. Could you please create a thread regarding Buoy Data. Something massive is going to happen im sure of it.
I cant believe that theres no threads already, so i thought id ask you.
Solar Watch
Volcano 2011 etc etc but no Buoy data collection threads?

I believe because i can feel it. Yes sounds stupid i know but i think that we are a lot closer than people think.
Anyone else getting weird headaches and sensations?? Pets acting wierd etc?

Please create a thread i feel its very important. Many thanks.

RSOE EDIS

Should i get worried about more,bigger Quakes happening in Europe now? Or are those related to Mining etc.? Serious Question.

reply to post by Shenon

I wouldn't waste my time with RSOE, youre better off following a reliable Network like EMSC
re
Things look pretty normal to me

reply to post by jazz10


Why don't you start it yourself, then we will know what you are on about.

Bouys are funny things, they show tides, storms and tsunamis ................ what else?

reply to post by PuterMan

No not really, I haven't got the time to change my World graphs every day

There was a trend going there 2 days/2x 7+ quakes

reply to post by PuterMan


Interesting the quakes are getting more numerous after that 8.0 in 1985 offshore Valparaiso, I didn't download anything under Mag 7 but there were "thousands" of aftershocks according to USGS.
Prior to the 9.6 in 1960 things were pretty quiet, with 7's anyway.

What magnitudes did you use? because there were surprisingly few Mag 7 quakes in Chile in the 2 decades after the 1961 Great Quake

reply to post by muzzy


I used magnitude 4.5 upwards for that little exercise.

What i find strange is that ANSS had nothing pre 1963. I need a source for Chile before that if you have one?