Quake Watch 2011

reply to post by Aromaz


Aromaz,
I am sooo sorry for the delay in replying to your post about the bowls. A different thread/ I think you are far more knowledgable about the subject than I am! I don't know whether you know or not but there was/is a crystal glass manufacturer here in Manchester I believe it was, who took it in his head one day to make Crystal singing bowls. they look like frosted glass and their tones are absolutely beautiful. Anyway as you said , for a seperate thread!
I will try and find a link for you.
Now back to EQ's.

PS have you had a look at the updates from your part of the world that I have put up on volcano thread?

Rainbows
Jane

Wow. I swear the last page is the longest page on ATS ever. With all the charts and such, when you scroll down, it goes on and on. I am in agreement about the cycles of larger quakes. There was a definately cluster during the 50's and 60's. It would seem we are in a period of increased activity. Of course, this means we may not get another 9Mish quakes for years.

It seems relatively quiet at the moment. Lately, the closest thing to a 6M was in Equador.
I said the next larger quake will be in Chile/Argentia. South America has been on the quiet side. So, it's merely a matter of time.
The largest quake ever recorded was in Chile. 1960.

Here's another place that I'm being to wonder about. The Dominican Republic. On the list of 20th Century quakes, the Dominican had an 8M. So, if you factor in the Haiti quake, and the fact the Domician is between Haiti and Peutro Rico, it wouldn't be surprising. Peutro Rico is always active, but it seems a little more spunky than usual.

Trust me, I'm not going to go on and on about my moon. But I'd like to say, that I don't think the activity, however slight, of moon's gravitational influence on quakes happens during the peak of the full moon. I think there's a lag. Kinda like La Nina and El Nino. It is only after the weather pattern is established that you see the change in the jet stream. If this has any validity, then we should be the 6+M picking up very shortly.

reply to post by Robin Marks


The problem there Robin is that after so many days of no mag 6 they would be bound to pick up and probably like buses all come at once.

reply to post by PuterMan


yup, I was thinking that as well. It's inevitable. That being said, I think we're due for a 7+ soon.
Maybe a couple of 6's showing up first.

reply to post by Robin Marks


Yup, probably.

Mag 8+ earthquakes of the past century (1900-2011) animated.



An offshoot of something else I am doing.

They are saying on RT that there was a 6.5 off Indonesia. this is the news clip.

Powerful underwater quake off Indonesia
­A powerful earthquake has hit waters off Indonesia, Associated Press reports on Tuesday. The quake has a preliminary magnitude of 6.5, according to the country's meteorology and geophysics agency. It hit 547 kilometers southwest of Bintuhan Town on Sumatra Island, 10 kilometers under the ocean floor.

Now theres nothing coming up from USGS. Immmm.

reply to post by aarys


Updated story, USGS got it as 4.4

earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/recenteqsww/Quakes/us2011prax.php

_______

August 16, 2011 4:11 AM

Small quake hits waters off Indonesia


www.cbsnews.com/stories/2011/08/16/ap/asia/main20092815.shtml

(AP) JAKARTA, Indonesia — A small but shallow earthquake hit waters off Indonesia on Tuesday, causing no injuries or reports of damage.

The 4.6-magnitude quake was centered 340 miles (547 kilometers) southwest of Sumatra island, just 6 miles (10 kilometers) under the ocean floor, said Apriliyanto, an official at the country's meteorology and geophysics agency.

Earlier the agency put the magnitude at 6.5, sending out alerts to officials and journalists by mobile phone text message.

A glitch in the agency's computer was responsible for the error, Apriliyanto said.

Indonesia straddles a series of fault lines that make the vast island nation prone to volcanic and seismic activity.

© 2011 The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

reply to post by jjjtir


Ok. But they did just get a 5.8 Heres the link.
quakes.globalincidentmap.com...

5.8
Date-Time Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 11:03:57 UTC
Tuesday, August 16, 2011 at 08:03:57 PM at epicenter
Time of Earthquake in other Time Zones

Location 2.296°S, 128.041°E
Depth 37.2 km (23.1 miles)
Region CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
Distances 155 km (96 miles) N of Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
348 km (216 miles) SSE of Ternate, Moluccas, Indonesia
744 km (462 miles) NNE of DILI, Timor-Leste
1166 km (724 miles) NNW of DARWIN, Northern Territory, Australia

And this is reporting it as a 6.5
thewatchers.adorraeli.com...

EMSC has it as a 6.2
Magnitude mb 6.2
Region CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
Date time 2011-08-16 11:03:56.0 UTC
Location 2.25 S ; 128.09 E
Depth 30 km
Distances 161 km NW Ambon (pop 355,596 ; local time 20:03:56.7 2011-08-16)
152 km NW Amahai (pop 47,653 ; local time 20:03:56.7 2011-08-16)

www.emsc-csem.org...

Hmmmm
Rainbows
jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


Note that EMSC is reporting it as Mb and USGS is reporting as Mw, hence the difference.

If you go to the USGS Phase data you will see that they are also saying 6.2 Mb and 6.0 ML.

Unfortunately since we try and use Mw where possible as it it more accurate I cannot consider this to be a Mag 6 for the purposes of, like sunspots, counting mag 6 free days.

Watch EMSC reclassify this as Mw.

ETA: By the way USGS under their own peculiar classification that no one can understand call it:

MAGNITUDE 5.8 (GS)

Maybe like muzzy said GS is guess, or is it in fact the scale they use as the official magnitude. I believe that is the case. Take a read of the explanation of parameters for phase data. See the example:

for example, MAGNITUDE 5.4 MS (GS).

ETAEM: Looking at the phase data there are a huge number of mag 6+ in that. This may become officially our first mag 6 to break the 6-free days yet.

reply to post by PuterMan


Thank you for that PuterMan. I shall make sure I look for Mw's in future!
rainbows
Jane

reply to post by angelchemuel


By the way I don't think it will be raised now. Out of sheer idle curiosity I took all the Mb values from the EMSC phase data and the average of the 95 given values is 6.214736842

Someone mentioned the Dominican Republic. My apologies I have not looked back to see who it was.

Re the current activity this might be of interest.

reply to post by PuterMan


I really like the map with the 8+ quakes. Except, since I'm so used to looking at the USGS maps with the Ring of Fire in the center, I'm getting discombobulated when moving the slider back and forth trying to follow the sequence. Not criticizing, it's just the USGS has got me looking at the globe in a different way. Our official maps are a little prejudiced, being that Greenwich is supposedly the center of our planet. I guess you got to start somewhere.

You just posted data on the Dominican. I guess it wasn't my imagination. I usually don't pay much attention to Puetro Rico, but it's been on my radar because it's more energetic than normal. (I had a whole hypothesis to explain Puetro Rico and how it relates to Japan- but forget it for now) (and central Asia- ug- it's fanciful)
Heck, maybe there's a volcano brewing somewhere in the vicinity.

Angelchemuel, I'm lazy. And like to keep things simple. I find the best way to monitor quakes is to simply rely on the USGS map and list. If there's a big wave across the webicorders I watch, then I check there. Also, I watch it for patterns. There are so many different sources posting varying reports that it becomes confusing.

Can we predict earthquakes?
www.baycitizen.org...

If there are precursor electrical signals originating in the fault, is it the rock under stress, or is it the ground water being charged?

I think it's both. The compressed rock creates a charge. Then the charge migrates into the ground water and it is conducted toward the surface and into the atmosphere. I suppose it's not very much different than the way lightning is formed.

Earlier this summer I was filming a storm. A flash of light came within a few dozen meters from where I was standing. I expected the boom immediately. But to my surprise, it was delayed. Afterward, I had to remind myself that lightning is not a single event. There is a process. When I reviewed my video, I could see the current travelling back up into the cloud.

www.youtube.com...

You may think I ran away after that strike. But I didn't. I ran back in and got an umbrella. I finished recording the storm. Wow. It was wild. Check out the supercell with funnel clouds.

www.youtube.com...

Spooky orange moon last night.

www.theweathernetwork.com...

The moon must create an electrical charge in the ground water. I think there's more than just the moving of the tides from the big squeeze. The gravitational force must create a current. Sorry. Thinking aloud. And rambling on .

Carry on.

reply to post by Robin Marks


I'm even lazier....I rely on you and PuterMan and Aromaz!


Going to check out your vids now..
Rainbows
Jane

Oh,Oh,Oh 6.3!

here
hisz.rsoe.hu...

But reported as
M 5.8 2011/08/16 11:03 Depth 37.2 km CERAM SEA, INDONESIA
08:03:57 PM at epicenter
Harmless strong earthquake at a safe distance from the nearest islands. Max. Felt MMI will be V.
4,000 people will feel a V MMI shaking (moderate) and 267,000 a light MMI IV shaking
EMSC reports a magnitude of 6.2 at a depth of 48 km, GFZ 6.0 @ 43 km.
155 km (96 miles) N (355°) from Ambon, Moluccas, Indonesia
Satellite map of the greater epicenter area
here
earthquake-report.com...
What say you guys?


Rainbows
Jane

This is probably the most significant map I have posted since Sept 4 2010 UTC
Can you guess why?