Quake Watch 2011

Originally posted by Skellon
Aromaz
It is a pleasure to have the company of such an informed individual on these boards, I appreciate it.
Is there a significance in the speed at which the plume in traveling?
Also, I have noticed that there appears to be two plumes; one large and one smaller one (sourced North West of the main suspected eruption), can you possibly explain this, or is it from the same source?
Regards, Skellon.

SPEED:
Speed of the plumes are related to wind. The higher atmosphere wind at present is blowing towards East, the lower atmosphere is blowing West to North. Thus this plume should be quite low - perhaps only 8,000 to 12,000 ft. BUT there wind is seldom blowing at 100 km/hr; even more rare to have such strong winds at night over the desert. I am still jumping around all the things that are happening today, excited like 6 yr kid waking up i middle of candy store.

What is of big interest is that the ash plume remains so dense, indicating it is pushing a lot of dust into the air and air is moving very fast. This volcano did not had ice cap, so it is not the same kind of explosions you would find in Iceland, Russia or Chile volcanoes. More likley then this was/is a massive boooom.

TWO CLOUDS:
Nobody yet able to physically view the eruption. I only expect first teams to arrive late this afternoon. There are no roads nearby; at least for 40 km the only way would be river beds and volcanic veins. It is possible there might be two pipes that opened up. Concern is also about the smaller series of quakes some 100 km to the South of current eruption. This COULD be a bigger insident than just this volcano; we will have to wait and watch for next few months.

Originally posted by bellagirl
there seems to be a few "real" experts on here so i want to pose the question.....is all this action with quakes and volcanoes out of the ordinary? please no non-experts or religious freaks.

Well, I am no 'expert' just a student but hope I can answer you!

In truth about Geology; It is somewhat difficult to say when earthquakes and volcano's are really out of the ordinary.
Old places settles doen, new ones becomes active. Looking at the number of earthquakes and their combined energy values (as per PutterMan) I would say "No, nothing abnormal there". Let us see what PutterMan and Muzzy say about that.

About the volcano's; they erupt all the time all over the place.
However in this 2011; I will say the level of volcanic activity at present is much higher than the usual average. That is not for the number of eruptions; but the intensity of some and various 'new' locations. More important for the number of pending activities being added to the watch lists. Maybe 30% upwards and then some of these are in locations that are not usually on the volcano watch list.

Is it abnormal? Honestly I can't say yes; neither unconditionally no.
Is it possible start of the "End of Times" - That, at present, I would say no - not yet. We still got a very long way to go. Will it affect the whole earth - Yes, definitely it will change at least the weather and food production.

reply to post by Aromaz


Thank you for addressing those questions and educating me, it is indeed very interesting.

Regards, Skellon.

reply to post by Skellon


Looking at SAT photo's:
The secondary Northern cloud does not have much of a heat signature on IR while the main cloud is hot.
It is more likley to be a secondary vent opened, probbaly higher altitude and not as hot.

HOWEVER: we will only know that for sure once geologists reached there to look.
As at present, I am not aware of any aircraft flying over that area yet; Eritrea is very concerned about 'spies' and aircraft

Interesting on EU MET SAT (sat24.com) there seems to be a clockwise cyclonic movement in the clouds with this Nabro volcano right in the eye. If that is true then it has a lot of heating up in the air. Might indicate stong magma flows.

reply to post by Aromaz


thankyou for your response. thats the sort of answer i was looking for. i have read lots of threads on here and im not into the whole rapture - end of world theories. but i am into the thought along the lines of these things having an affect on the whole food situation. i think since globalization, we dont seem to make a whole lot of our own stuff in australia anymore. a lot is imported. i dont have any storage of foods or water where others are fully prepared for such an event. i have always had an interest in all things to do with natural disasters and even i am starting to think it might be time to put a little away as it would only take one massive erruption for chaos to begin.

if nabro volcano was extinct labeled .....wat will happens with the 2 extinct volcano's near christchurg...
my believe is that they are reactivating....

Originally posted by ressiv
if nabro volcano was extinct labeled .....wat will happens with the 2 extinct volcano's near christchurg...

'Extinct' might have been the wrong word to use. There are very few volcano's really EXTINCT.
In this particular case, this particular mountian did not had an eruption in current human memory..
Generally it is refered to 'Holocene' which is the past 12,000 years.
Until as recent as about 2,500 years ago this area was lush savanna with large human and animal population;
originally knowns as the Land of Kush.

There is another volcano in the same group 'DUBBI', about 23 km NE that is suspected to had four eruptions in past 300 years. It is part of what some people (including me) believe to be same 85 km big super volcano; with Nabro as the main original caldera.

reply to post by ressiv


I might be banned, shot or cursed for saying this; do not take me for real.
BUT: the two strong earthquakes you had in ChCh today are on the edge of a big old extinct volcano.
Scary as it is, it seems to be scarier from where I am looking at the map;
BUT SOMEONE WILL HAVE TO CHECK GEOLOGY !!!!

It seems oldest cladera was what you call today Akaroa Bay, just South of Duvauchelle.
Later a second smaller pipe opened up a bit to the North at Mt. Herbert;
Latest was Lyttelton Harbour/Bay centred around Quail island and that was very big.

This is one interesting observation, though not everybody accepts it; rather very few people even consider this potential. More often new volcanic pipes/eruptions takes place on the Northern sides of older eruptions / peaks / calderas.

If anyone starts noticing sulphur dioxide (rotten egg smell) or sudden massive death of birds and fish in the bay; I think it might be advisable to re-locate away; quickly. If ever there is a current place to be ready, run-pack on hand it is ChCh; I think. Please forgive my black mood post here, but TWIST.

(TWIST = The Way I See Things"

i'll mentiont before that lots of eq-swarms where near volcano;s....is it increase of seismic activity ore volcanic...
my bets goes to volcanic.. triggering eq's... instead of eq's triggering volcano;s...

reason :
increasing temps from the inner core making crust expands...also cousing global heating as side effect

couse:
moore particles in space are tempting earths rotation slowing douwn ..gives moore friction to the rotating inner core generating heat...

Regarding Christchurch , we CAN class them as extinct as the hotspot/we've migrated and it isn't under there any more. C. 5Ma since the last eruption (if I recall correctly) so it ain't gonna happen.

All the Canterbury Vulcanologists I know would agree.

doublepostmadness!

reply to post by aorAki


i believe there were reports of smelling sulva at the earlier eq's ....that could indicate volcanic activity?

reply to post by aorAki


THAT is most likely - nothing volcanic wise is suppose to happen.
Unless; you start to smell the sulphur and see lot sof dead animals.

THEN - do not care what the Learned Elders say; follow the road away.
Until then, just stay alert.

Sure,but the 'Learned Elders' are past and current and know a shirtload more about it than I do...I'm not worried,even if there are sulphurous smells...shaking is more of a problem here.

Please,there will be no volcanic emanation,that;s just scare tactics and un-sensible. Makes a nice Dan Brown novel,but not grounded in fact regarding hotspot volcanism.

Shakes every few minutes at the moment...I wonder if the mountai....OH SHI

reply to post by Aromaz


EUMETSAT ASH from the eruption start until 08:00 UTC today. (Warning to dial up users this is a 5.6 MB file)

I have not embedded it out of consideration for dialup users.

EritreaEruptionAsh2

Edit to prevent it being displayed as an external image.

Map of Todays Christchurch Events Note: Location placenames are automated, so not that accurate (not reviewed yet)

Map of 2011 quakes prior to today in Canterbury Includes 1 quake prior to the Feb 21 6.3 which can be called an aftershock of the Darfield 7.1

Map of the Darfield Aftershocks up to the end of 2010

reply to post by ressiv


that was more than likely broken sewage pipes.

reply to post by muzzy


My God, what sort of sewage do you have in New Zealand that smells of sulphur?

Either the population are all devils or ...............

sorry, was supposed to be posted hours ago but then accounting came to upset my Taxable Peace!

Maybe my 'seeing' on the maps is not so far outrageous as I thought. I did a bit more research and do actually find quite a number of people, including 'Learned Elders' that are talking, writing and warning of imminent volcanic activity from old volcanoes SW of ChCh. One Dr. Mirco Poletto even from Italy.

I also saw there were complaints and lab confirmations of periodic Sulphur smells since February. They said 'broken sewerage' Everybody in all of IndoChina knows when you smell Sulphur you look, listen and never sleeps until you are very far away. I found even reference to some yellow powder type of substance found around ChCh in February/March - but that was said to be polen!

@Muzzy; IF you read this: I have seen reports of more than 5,000 total earthquakes between Sept 2010 and February 2011 and 4,300 overt his past 4 months. Do you have more accurate number - confirmation or disprove?

@Tephra made a nice quite valid presentation here:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Originally posted by PuterMan
reply to post by muzzy

 

My God, what sort of sewage do you have in New Zealand that smells of sulphur?

Either the population are all devils or ...............

If one really wants to fool common population you surely can tell them the smell of Sulphur is actually Methane. They will believe that which they prefer to believe.

IF you really have Sulphur, you will find water becomes acid like; plants and more specific grass will die.
Sulphur is heavier than air, thus you will find a stronger smell closer to ground level and in valleys/depressions. It has a sharp rotten egg smell that might cause choking and feel like vomiting. Very quick harsh reaction. Buy some Blue Litmus paper from Lab supply or some pharmacies. Test suspect water with it - if Sulphur/Sulphur Dioxide it will turn red.

Methane on the other hand does not leave any visible signs; though you might find methane with heavier components like Buthane or even Octane - which will form a oil-like layer on water. Methane is lighter than air and burns easily - as in often spontaneous combustion. Most important, methane has a sweet kind of smell though most of the time you can't smell methane. Remember in the older days when people go down mines or cave explorations they took the little bird with them? When the bird drops dead they know there is either Methane or Carbon Monoxide. Mostly it was Methane.

Definitely once you smelled both once, you will know the difference easily.