The Gulf Stream (stopping/slowing) WILL NOT cause the UK/Europe to enter a new Ice Age

I have decided to create this thread to try and inform some people out there who are either unsure or mis-informed by other threads on ATS about the Gulf Stream slowing/stopping and its resulting effect being that of a new ice age.

It looks like some of you have watched The Day After Tomorrow too many times.

The Gulf Stream, linked into the European Climate and any abrupt changes due to its course/actions are a MYTH.

A detailed study published in the Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society in 2002 Found Here demonstrated the limited role that ocean heat transport plays in determining regional climates around the Atlantic Ocean.

There are 3 main points that need to alter/change to put us into a new ice age, these 3 points take into account the following...

1. The radiating effect of the sea temp throughout the seasons i.e. the sea is warmer in winter than it is in summer because of the transfer of heat and the time it takes for this to occur
2. The temperature of the atmosphere, due to solar activity and the subsequent seasons
3. The transfer of heat through ocean currents (Gulf Stream example).

It takes more than 1 point to put us into an ice age...

Small quote from source

Using observations and climate models we found that, at the latitudes of Europe, the atmospheric heat transport exceeds that of the ocean by several fold. In winter it may even by an order of magnitude greater. Thus it is the atmosphere, not the ocean, that does the lion's share of the work ameliorating winter climates in the extratropics. We also found that the seasonal absorption and release of heat by the ocean has a much larger impact on regional climates than does the movement of heat by ocean currents.


Seasonal storage and release accounts for half the winter temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean. But the 500 pound gorilla in how regional climates are determined around the Atlantic turned out to be the Rocky Mountains. Because of the need to conserve angular momentum, as air flows from the west across the mountains it is forced to first turn south and then to turn north further downstream. As such the mountains force cold air south into eastern North America and warm air north into western Europe. This waviness in the flow is responsible for the other half of the temperature difference across the North Atlantic Ocean.

Hence:

1.Fifty percent of the winter temperature difference across the North Atlantic is caused by the eastward atmospheric transport of heat released by the ocean that was absorbed and stored in the summer.
2.Fifty percent is caused by the stationary waves of the atmospheric flow.
3.The ocean heat transport contributes a small warming across the basin

Source

I strongly reccommend that people do SOME research before they post sensationalist threads scaring people into thoughts about the upcoming 4 months of winter. It would be wiser to simply inform people that its going to snow and get colder. There are enough things going on in the world to worry about, other than fabricated lies and misinformation.

But on the subject of the upcoming cold spell for UK members...yes its going to snow, and yes it'll be cold, and yes the MSM will throw it down your thoats like its the worst thing to happen to the UK in 100 years, and yes no doubt MP's will loose their jobs etc but enjoy the weather because it will be spring before you know it and there wont be any more snow until next years threads about the Gulf Stream stopping pop up and the whole thing will begin again.

Well it was actually an ice core scientist that first shared this Idea with me.

The flow of the current is enough to provide the flow of warmer water that will result in clouds and rain which are natural insulation blankets. Also the warmer seas don't reach huge parts of North America where there is freezing cold all the way down to Spain's southern position. Yet somhow it remains soft for Northern Europe.

The current cold however is said to be caused by changing air streams that caused the yet stream to positioned itself way south and cold air from the north is not running against it as it is a natural barrier

Just want to add this 'weather' story into the mix...

hisz.rsoe.hu...

You don't see this very often do you ?? Snow getting towards the Equator !

A snowstorm whipped across the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday, disrupting traffic but also bringing some relief from a drought which has gripped the country for the past four years. The UN estimates drought has affected around 1.3 million Syrians, 800,000 of them severely, in four consecutive droughts since 2006. The desert countries of Jordan and Egypt were meanwhile hit by sandstorms on Sunday as visibility deteriorated and temperatures continued to plummet.

regards

PDUK

Originally posted by Sinter Klaas
Well it was actually an ice core scientist that first shared this Idea with me.

The flow of the current is enough to provide the flow of warmer water that will result in clouds and rain which are natural insulation blankets. Also the warmer seas don't reach huge parts of North America where there is freezing cold all the way down to Spain's southern position. Yet somhow it remains soft for Northern Europe.

The current cold however is said to be caused by changing air streams that caused the yet stream to positioned itself way south and cold air from the north is not running against it as it is a natural barrier

edit on 12/12/2010 by Sinter Klaas because: (no reason given)

Indeed...the upcoming cold is caused by AGM, a Polar Vortex which is in the Arctic will move south (presumably down the East Coast of the UK) during late this week. This will drag the colder air with it from the Arctic and the PV will halt (most likely) over Italy. This is being ushed down to us by High Pressure over the North Atlantic.

This cold weather is not caused by the Gulf Stream. The atmosphere plays a far bigger role than the Gulf Stream.

The Gulf Stream was used as an excuse and since that excuse, it has stuck. Even though it has been disproved as the ONLY factor.

Either way, it'll be cold and snowy...but it aint going to freeze us to death or allow us to walk to Norway...

Originally posted by PurpleDog UK
Just want to add this 'weather' story into the mix...

hisz.rsoe.hu...

You don't see this very often do you ?? Snow getting towards the Equator !

A snowstorm whipped across the Syrian capital Damascus on Sunday, disrupting traffic but also bringing some relief from a drought which has gripped the country for the past four years. The UN estimates drought has affected around 1.3 million Syrians, 800,000 of them severely, in four consecutive droughts since 2006. The desert countries of Jordan and Egypt were meanwhile hit by sandstorms on Sunday as visibility deteriorated and temperatures continued to plummet.

regards

PDUK

It is unusual, this is partly my point...its NOT the Gulf Stream that is responsible for this WORLDWIDE weather. It is most likely the Sun Output which in turn affects the Atmosphere and thus the weather.

The Sea CURRENTS dont really play that big a part.

reply to post by jrmcleod


Agreed

Definitely not the only factor. Still the fact is that the ocean hardly radiate anything back and almost completely absorb the sun's energy. This makes it a natural central heating. However with all cv's a blocking system will result into a room without central heating. It gets colder then normal.

Anyway..

I still remember winters our big rivers froze and our inner lake froze solid. It's pretty normal to happen except for the last 15 years. 1996 was the last time it froze enough to drive a car on the ice.

That cold vortex strikes IMO more similarities with that movie you mentioned. lol

reply to post by Sinter Klaas


Yeah, your right...the last real cold spell (except last year) was 1996. And yes if that PV hit it will be WIDESPREAD UK SNOW.

I strongly believe that the suns output is very low just now and has been declining so its only natural that Mean temps will also drop.

reply to post by jrmcleod

I strongly believe that the suns output is very low just now and has been declining so its only natural that Mean temps will also drop.

Really ?

From what I've read the Sun has been going through a lesser active period. It did not get fainter but. brighter.
Those photons a the ones used on earth. although I don't know how much heat is released by this system.

I've heard many scientists say that enough melting would cut off the current and cause things to get very cold in northern Europe, but I see your point about listening to sensationalists. It's not like the whole of Europe is going to be in a permanent deep freeze in a single season.

reply to post by jrmcleod


GLOBAL WARMING IS A RACKET

www.bibliotecapleyades.net...

The Climate Cash Cow
A high-ranking member of the U.N.’s Panel on Climate Change admits the group’s primary goal is the redistribution of wealth and not environmental protection or saving the Earth.

Money, they say, is the root of all evil. It’s also the motivating force behind what is left of the climate change movement after the devastating Climategate and IPCC scandals that saw the deliberate manipulation of scientific data to spur the world into taking draconian regulatory action.

Left for dead, global warm-mongers are busy planning their next move, which should occur at a climate conference in relatively balmy Cancun at month’s end. Certainly it should provide a more appropriate venue for discussing global warming than the site of the last failed climate conference - chilly Copenhagen.

Ottmar Edenhofer… told the Neue Zurcher Zeitung last week:
“The climate summit in Cancun at the end of the month is not a climate conference, but one of the largest economic conferences since the Second World War.”
After all, redistributing global wealth is no small matter.

Edenhofer let the environmental cat out of the bag when he said,
“climate policy is redistributing the world’s wealth” and that “it’s a big mistake to discuss climate policy separately from the major themes of globalization.”

…Edenhofer claims “developed countries have basically expropriated the atmosphere of the world community” and so they must have their wealth expropriated and redistributed to the victims of their alleged crimes, the postage stamp countries of the world.

He admits this “has almost nothing to do with environmental policy anymore, with problems such as deforestation or the ozone hole.”
It has everything to do with a different kind of green.
…Given this administration’s willingness to compromise American sovereignty, we could soon see Americans taxed to fund a global scam - the ultimate form of taxation without representation.
So science has been abused as a vehicle for justifying worldwide wealth redistribution.

Gosh, that’s what many of us have been saying for years. That’s what the Climategate e-mails clearly demonstrated. It’s nice to see that Mr. Edenhofer from his position of influence at the IPCC agrees.

reply to post by jrmcleod


Hi there,

many thanks for doing this thread ,

i have been saying in all the recent threads that they are just sensationalist / fearmongering threads...that dont need to be..

thanks for the science

snoopyuk

Where I am in Canada we have a warmer winter then normal the last couple of years while south of us in the States the winters seem to have been much worse.
Turns out our JET stream is backing up and it is causing the artic air to leapfrog and fall south of us because of the stalled patterns creating a standing wave pattern.
I would suspect that might be the thing in the UK

reply to post by Danbones


i too would like to know if the jet stream is playing any part in the recent cold snap for the UK and Europe ??
OP what is your opinion ??

thanks
snoopyuk

Originally posted by snoopyuk
reply to post by Danbones

 

i too would like to know if the jet stream is playing any part in the recent cold snap for the UK and Europe ??
OP what is your opinion ??

thanks
snoopyuk

Indeed it is the Jet Stream and other factors that are causing the weather events in Europe and the US. The Jet Stream drives air conditions over certain areas, or allows it to move further than normal dependant on its position.

Current US Jet Stream Position
Current European Jet Stream Position

The Jet Stream is not the only factor in the European weather anomolies. AAM (atmospheric Angular Momentum) plays another large role, This is the driving force of all worldwide weather climates. AAM is basically the movement of air due to the rotaion of the planet.

AAM - Atmospheric Angular Momentum

AAM and the Jet Stream allow air masses to circulate. The air masses that move depict what weather we recieve. This is forecast by reading the temperature at 1500mtrs above sea level (850hPa) and 5000 mtrs (500hPa). These heights are measured because they arent affected by the temperature of the surface, either over sea or land. When these temperatures are measured, you can see if it is a cold mass or warm mass. The temperature difference also helps overlap the isobars and where the weather fronts are located.

Isobar and 850hPa Definition

As you can see in the below link to current weather charts, the weather over Europe will be directly from the Arctic. This is NOT due to the Gulf Stream, this is due to a Polar Vortex (a deep low pressure forming in the Arctic) being squeezed south by differing pressures in air mass. This differing pressures create a "blocking" affect, which basically stops the Atlantic influence on the UK. The air off of the Atlantic is warmer and moist, when its blocked it basically creates room for other air masses to occupy that space left vacant. This is what is occurring and has occurred over the past few weeks.

Current Europe Weather Charts

There are many factors that need to be brought into consideration when forecasting and prediciting future weather patterns. One single factor (Gulf Stream) is NOT how it is dictated. The atmosphere itself is far more important. The Jet Stream, AAM, Solar Output, Pollutants in the atmosphere (volcanic eruptions etc) and many more all need to be looked into.

reply to post by jrmcleod



Hi there,

thank-you for the very informative reply.

and once again thanks for the thread.

snoopyuk

Alex Jones and Jesse Ventura are partially responsible for the hysteria. In the BP episode of Conspiracy Theory they said that the spill caused a disruption in the conveyor and will cause another ice age. These guys say a few correct things and then everyone swallows everything they say hook line and sinker.

reply to post by jrmcleod


Hi star for you., That was a very informative reply.

You made me understand the issue a lot better. Just to make sure...

You basically say that because of changes in our atmosphere, the gulf currents warm and moist air ( we normally get here ) is blocked because the jet stream has been forced south due to a vortex that created an opening for cold arctic weather to get redistributed across northern Europe, which would normally been block by that same yet stream ?

reply to post by snoopyuk


well. I think it might
We don't have a gulf stream here, but the la nina /el nino does make a big change in the jet stream
and that is exactly what kind of winter we will get...

BREAKING NEWS! Has A Mini ICE AGE Just Begun? The Jet Stream Has Gone HAYWIRE!
www.abovetopsecret.com...

i can tell you right now as a canadian, living in the same spot for 22 years, this is the most messed summer/winter 2010 we've ever had in this location. summer came 3 weeks early, got to start planting 3 weeks early, winter came 2 months late... and now its raining during the day, and snowing / freezing at night


all i know is the WEATHER IS DIFFERENT. if i was a kid, we would have snow drifts the size of my parents by now

The biggest object in the Solar System, from which all of Earths energy stems is the Sun. Why then, is it always looked at last when discussing climate change?

What's more feasible? Ocean currents, carbon emissions and polar ice, or the gigantic nuclear fireball at the center of the Solar System which is responsible for temp and energy of our System?

We seriously need to stop with all this scrutinizing of Earthbound phenomena and just flat out realize that The Sun is 99 percent of the cause and effect of all of our weather and change. It's not a Cadillac Escalade, it's the Sun, guys. Jupiter hasn't been warming because everyone in Ca. drives a car.