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Dagan reiterated the need to strike at Iran's heart by engaging with its people directly. Voice of America (VOA) broadcasts are important, but more radio transmissions in Farsi are needed.
u]Force Regime Change: Dagan said that more should be done to foment regime change in Iran, possibly with the support of student democracy movements, and ethnic groups (e.g., Azeris, Kurds, Baluchs) opposed to the ruling regime.
Netanyahu noted that he thought dropping the "right of return" was the acid test of Arab intentions and insisted that he would never allow a single Palestinian refugee to return to Israel.
Netanyahu: A Palestinian state must be demilitarized, without control over its air space and electro-magnetic field, and without the power to enter into treaties or control its borders.
Netanyahu said he was prepared for "arrangements" with the Palestinians that would entail some limits on their sovereignty such as no Palestinian army, and Israeli control over borders, airspace, and the electromagnetic spectrum.
Israelis hope that the others will solve the Iranian problem for them, or as Vice PM Shimon Peres has said, "I do not think that the matter of Iran needs to be turned into an Israeli problem -- it is a matter of concern for the whole world."
In an August 17 meeting, Israeli Mossad Chief Meir Dagan thanked Under Secretary Burns for America's support of Israel as evidenced by the previous day's signing of an MOU that provides Israel with USD 30 billion in security assistance from 2008-2018.
The GOI described 2010 as a critical year -- if the Iranians continue to protect and harden their nuclear sites, it will be more difficult to target and damage them. Both sides then discussed the upcoming delivery of GBU-28 bunker busting bombs to Israel, noting that the transfer should be handled quietly to avoid any allegations that the USG is helping Israel prepare for a strike against Iran.
Lavrov commended the new U.S. approach to Iran, welcoming President Obama's readiness for the U.S. to engage "fully" in talks with Iran. Willingness to discuss "all" the issues was a welcome step, and one which Russia had been advocating for several years, Lavrov said. Iran wielded a lot of influence in the region, including on Afghanistan, Iraq, Hizbollah, Hamas, Gaza, etc. Iran had long been concerned about Israel, and saw Pakistan as a nuclear-weapons competitor.
Lavrov cautioned that Russia did not perceive Iran in the same way as the U.S. Iran for Russia was "much more than a country which might cause concern in the international community." Russia opposed Iran getting a nuclear weapon, because Russia did not want any more "members of the nuclear club," but Iran and Russia were historical and traditional partners and neighbors, with a "rich bilateral agenda."
While Iran wanted to dominate the region and the Islamic world, which was of concern to Arab governments, the U.S. should realize that the "Arab Street" considers Iranian leaders to be heroes.
Asked about Russian views on the Qom revelation in New York September 25, FM Lavrov adopted a strikingly softer tone than in the just released Kremlin statement. He noted that Iran had acted positively by notifying the IAEA about its plans to construct a new nuclear facility, and complained that some of Russia's "partner countries" in the P5-plus-1 had not shared information about the Qom facility earlier. Lavrov stressed that Iran's cooperation with the world community as a member of the NPT with non-nuclear status could prove the peaceful nature of its nuclear program.
Before the most recent P5-plus-1 meeting in Geneva, PM Putin said that Russia would not support "significant" changes to its approach on Iran. Ariel Cohen, a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, said Putin and Lavrov told him in early September that they are opposed to tougher sanctions and the use of force against Iran.
Russia's S-300 contract with Iran did not violate any international or national laws or arms control regimes, and that the S-300's were a defensive system only. He added that nothing Russia had sold Iran had been used against anyone, whereas U.S. weapons provided to Georgia had been used against Russian soldiers.
Senator Levin asked whether Iran believed the S-300 sale was canceled or just suspended. Ryabkov replied that a contract existed, and it was impossible to break a contract without consequences. He repeated that Moscow had taken U.S. and Israeli concerns into account, and at present Russia was not providing any components of the system to Teheran. Thus, it was "obvious the degree to which Iran was dissatisfied with this," he said. But, the contract was not canceled, it was merely "frozen," Ryabkov stressed. He argued that "the less we hear from Washington about this, the better."
Wang pressed U/S Burns for details on when the limits of U.S. patience might be exhausted and counseled further efforts to find a diplomatic solution. Burns replied that U.S. patience was nearly exhausted. Wang acknowledged that there was a potential for an Israeli military strike were the situation not handled properly, which was of grave concern to China, but insisted that harsh actions were not yet warranted. Recent U.S. experience with a military option, he said, should teach some lessons, and the outcome of tougher sanctions was also unpredictable. The United States needed to understand that Iran was not Iraq, and the best way forward was to continue to pursue peaceful dialogue and negotiations and to carefully examine previous diplomatic efforts to see what changes needed to be made.
Regarding China-Iran energy cooperation, Cheng believes that there is a “misunderstanding” on the part of the United States. China has made clear its need for energy resources and has previously stated that its cooperation with Iran on energy has nothing to do with the Iran nuclear issue. China hopes that the U.S. Congress understands this point, said Cheng. Specifically, the threat of sanctions against Sinopec is a very serious issue, Cheng emphasized. Sinopec is very important to China and Cheng “can’t imagine” the consequences if the company is sanctioned. Januzzi noted Cheng’s concerns and said that he would pass this message to Washington.
Hurriyet, Milliyet, Sabah, Aksam, Haberturk, Cumhuriyet, Yeni Safak and Zaman report the mayor of the Black Sea province of Rize, Halil Bakirci, had an "unpleasant" exchange of remarks during a meeting with visiting Israeli Ambassador, Gaby Levy. Mayor Bakirci told the Israeli Ambassador that the attitude of Turkish people toward Israel would not change as long as Israel continues its "expansionist policies." "The people of Rize will defend themselves in the face of such threats, but they will not kill babies," said Bakirci.
Erdogan emphasized Turkey was in close relationship both with the West and the Islamic world. "Defending the rights and humanity in the face of the Israeli atrocities in Gaza cannot be characterized as shifting politics," said Erdogan.
During an October 21 meeting with MFA Undersecretary Sinirlioglu, the Ambassador challenged Prime Minister Erdogan's recent dismissal of international community allegations that Iran intends to acquire nuclear weapons as "gossip."
[........]
Erdogan's recent comments on Iran's nuclear program amount to a defense of Tehran's defiance of the international community's will. His desire for a "good" Washington visit is the goad we will continue use to try to turn him back towards the international community consensus on Iran. We will also emphasize to Erdogan's senior bureuacrats and, when the opportunity arises, to President Gul their interest in reining in Erdogan on Iran.
Burns acknowledged Turkey's exposure to the economic effects of sanctions as a neighbor to Iran, but reminded Sinirlioglu Turkish interests would suffer if Israel were to act militarily to forestall Iran's acquisition of nuclear weapons or if Egypt and Saudi Arabia were to seek nuclear arsenals of their own.
Posts are requested to approach appropriate host government officials regarding the possible transfer of the S-300 air-defense system from Russia to Iran. Post should draw from the following talking points. --In the spirit of our bilateral cooperation, we request your government,s support in urging Russia to not transfer a highly sophisticated air defense system to Iran.
SARKOZY, KOUCHNER ADVISERS ON NATO, RUSSIA, IRAN, AND SARKOZY
Both interlocutors called the NIE a "disaster" that has "substantially jeopardized" progress on Iran in the short term and will have lasting consequences, including eliminating France's ability to build consensus in Europe. French views are unchanged, but many others have been affected, and the NIE destroyed not just the momentum of the international community but also what little leverage France and the international community had on less radical Iranian elements. Errera noted that the timing of the release of the NIE was especially bad, with EU Political Directors having been poised for a new UNSC resolution just before the NIE release. He said at the IISS Manama Dialogue in December, speculation was rampant about why the current U.S. administration did not better manage the report's fallout by postponing its release or changing the characterization of Iran's enrichment activities as exclusively civil.
President Sarkozy's private meeting in Moscow with President Putin, Putin was very hardline on Iran (notwithstanding Russia's exports of fuel for Bushehr), but that in the subsequent press conference, Putin distanced himself on this issue, to Sarkozy's surprise and chagrin. Errera said that in the past, Russia did not mind hurting Iran as long as Russia was not hurt as well; now Russia seems not to want to hurt the Iranians.
President Sarkozy called Prime Minister Netanyahu directly on October 26, Bereyziat reported, to urge him to establish an independent investigation into the actions of the Israeli Defense Forces in Gaza. Sarkozy informed Netanyahu that such a step would decrease pressure on Israel and its allies stemming from the Goldstone Report. Netanyahu responded briskly: "No way."
On Iraq, Mubarak said "you cannot leave" but advised strengthening the military and allowing a "fair" dictator to come to power via a coup. "Forget democracy," he opined, "the Iraqis are too tough by nature."
Mubarak explained his recipe for a way forward: "strengthen the armed forces, relax your hold, and then you will have a coup. Then we will have a dictator, but a fair one. Forget democracy, the Iraqis are by their nature too tough."
General Ali singled out Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar as three Gulf countries that probably would want the U.S. to strike Iran. However, he urged the U.S. to determine whether such voices were speaking on the basis of logic or emotion. He likened private entreaties of these countries to the U.S. for military action on Iran to the Iraqi opposition in exile providing the U.S. false information on Iraq that led to the invasion of Iraq.
Originally posted by 1curious1
reply to post by Sheol
Can you get to the Wikileak website this morning? Just wondering if the site has again been attacked, or if the US has blocked it's content as suggested on the second headline of the Drudge Report, "US cuts access to files".
7. (S) Chun acknowledged the Ambassador's point that a strong ROK-Japan relationship would help Tokyo accept a reunified Korean Peninsula under Seoul's control. Chun asserted that, even though "Japan's preference" was to keep Korea divided, Tokyo lacked the leverage to stop reunification in the event the DPRK collapses.
NORTH KOREA'S NUCLEAR TESTS, DOMESTIC POLITICS
10. (C) Guoping seemed genuinely concerned by North Korea's recent
ASTANA 00000982 003 OF 004
nuclear missile tests. "We need to solve this problem. It is very troublesome," he said, calling Korea's nuclear activity a "threat to the whole world's security." China opposes North Korea's nuclear testing and is working to achieve peace and stability on the Korean peninsula, according to Guoping. When asked about the reunification of Korea, Guoping said China hopes for peaceful reunification in the long-term, but he expects the two countries to remain separate in the short-term. Guoping said the domestic political situation in North Korea is "very complex" and suggested that Kim Jong-il's reported decision to anoint his youngest son as his successor was driven more by Kim's deteriorating health than any carefully planned strategy. "They had no time to plan for this," he said. Guoping said the "military really governs" North Korea and controls domestic politics and foreign policy. He suggested that Kim Jong-il's announcement was designed to send a message to the military and the great powers that he is really in charge and in control. Guoping said China's objectives in North Korea were to ensure they honor their commitments on nonproliferation, maintain stability, and "don't drive [Kim Jong-il] mad."
4. (S) Deputy Secretary Steinberg met with Singapore Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew on May 30 on the margins of the Shangri-La Dialogue, the annual international security forum held in Singapore. The Deputy Secretary used the meeting with MM Lee to stress the importance of Chinese cooperation in addressing the North Korea nuclear issue and to elicit MM Lee's views on China and North Korea. MM Lee said the Chinese do not want North Korea to have nuclear weapons. At the same time, the Chinese do not want North Korea, which China sees as a buffer state, to collapse. The ROK would take over in the North and China would face a U.S. presence at its border. If China has to choose, Beijing sees a North Korea with nuclear weapons as less bad for China than a North Korea that has collapsed, he stated.
5. (S) MM Lee said he asked Deputy Chief of the People's Liberation Army (PLA) General Staff Ma Xiaotian what China can do about North Korea. General Ma's Delphic answer was that "they can survive on their own." MM Lee said he interpreted this as meaning that even if China cut off aid, the DPRK leadership would survive. This is a leadership that has already taken actions like killing ROK Cabinet Members in Burma and shooting down a KAL flight. If they lose power, they will end up facing justice at The Hague, like Milosevic. They have been so isolated for so long that they have no friends, not even Russia. They have not trusted China since the Chinese began cultivating ties with the ROK, given China's interest in attracting foreign investment, he said. The Deputy Secretary noted that the DPRK could have a fair and attractive deal if it would change its approach. If not, North Korea faces a change of course by the United States, the ROK and Japan.
6. (S) The Deputy Secretary noted that North Korea's decisions will have an impact in Japan. MM Lee said he believes Japan may well "go nuclear." The Chinese must have factored this into their calculations and concluded that the prospect of Japan with nuclear weapons is less bad than losing North Korea as a buffer state. The Chinese take a long-term view and must think that within a few years the DPRK's current leadership will be gone and there will be new leadership, with new thinking. But there will still be a North Korea, he said.
7. (S) MM Lee said he wishes the USG well in its efforts on North Korea, but he would be surprised if the North Koreans agree to give up nuclear weapons. They might give up a first-strike capacity, but they want nuclear weapons in case the USG decides to seek regime change. They are psychopathic types, with a "flabby old chap" for a leader who prances around stadiums seeking adulation.
8. (S) MM Lee said the ROK, after seeing what had happened with German unification, does not want immediate unification with the DPRK. There is "nothing there" in the DPRK, other than a military organization. Kim Jong-Il has already had a stroke. It is just a matter of time before he has another stroke.The next leader may not have the gumption or the bile of his father or grandfather. He may not be prepared to see people die like flies. China is calculating all this. They have their best men on the job. They want to help the United States to advance common objectives. But they do not want the South to take over the North, MM Lee said.
Egypt on Iraq
Another of US closest allies Egypt showing it's true color of installing a dictator in Iraq and not pushing democracy. Goes on to show Egyptians stance on democracy.
On Iraq, Mubarak said "you cannot leave" but advised strengthening the military and allowing a "fair" dictator to come to power via a coup. "Forget democracy," he opined, "the Iraqis are too tough by nature."
Mubarak explained his recipe for a way forward: "strengthen the armed forces, relax your hold, and then you will have a coup. Then we will have a dictator, but a fair one. Forget democracy, the Iraqis are by their nature too tough."
France and US on 2007 Iran NIE (National Intelligence Estimate): If anyone remembers in 2007 all 16 US Intelligence agencies gave unanimous judgment that Iran had stopped working on a nuclear weapon four years earlier. Seems like France and US govt. did not like their assessment. One has to ask if the intelligence agencies know Iran is not building nuclear weapons why are US & alies hell bent on sanctioning Iran.
Both interlocutors called the NIE a "disaster" that has "substantially jeopardized" progress on Iran in the short term and will have lasting consequences, including eliminating France's ability to build consensus in Europe. French views are unchanged, but many others have been affected, and the NIE destroyed not just the momentum of the international community but also what little leverage France and the international community had on less radical Iranian elements. Errera noted that the timing of the release of the NIE was especially bad, with EU Political Directors having been poised for a new UNSC resolution just before the NIE release. He said at the IISS Manama Dialogue in December, speculation was rampant about why the current U.S. administration did not better manage the report's fallout by postponing its release or changing the characterization of Iran's enrichment activities as exclusively civil.
Originally posted by Prince Of Darkness
reply to post by 1curious1
http:cablegate.__._ is down now. It has to do with Amazon terminating their service with Wikileaks.
WIKILEAKS IS DOWN AFTER AMAZON PULLS THE PLUG
Looks like a back room pressure from US agencies to me.
Originally posted by Prince Of Darkness
Edit: Update: The website is up now but extremely slow from continuous attacks on it.
electro-magnetic field ?????????
Originally posted by Nventual
I love wikileaks.