There will be NO WAR on the Korean Peninsula any time soon!

If you are one of the people who actually bother to read my threads then you may remember a few months ago when everybody on ATS was running around writing about how a war with Iran was imminent, as in weeks if not days way, I wrote a thread pointing out why there would be no war. Guess what there was no war. However now it seems that everybody is running around ATS screaming that a war on the Korean peninsula is imminent, it’s not.

The real reason that are war with DPRK and America and/or South Korea is not about to starts is simply because they are already at war and have been since the 1950’s, that war never officially ended. There was however a temporary truce signed however the North Korean leader at the time refused to sign a permanent truce, this is known as the Korean Armistice Agreement. The idea was that all side involved America, North Korea, South Korea and China being the main players would agree enter peace talks but there was never any official declaration of peace or a peace treaty. Therefore how can you start a war with a country when you are already at war with that state, the situation on Korea is a bit like a mini cold war with each side pushing the other to see who will blink first. This however is a mere technicality, pointing out that if the truce did brake then we would not be starting a new war but rather continuing with a old war. The reason then that there will not be a new war lies in how this fragile truce is maintained.

If there is to be a brake in the truce then this brake would come from DPRK and not any other sides as none of them actually want a war. DPRK is unlikely to go provoke any opposing side as they in all likelihood don’t want to return to hostilities. Any war in the Korean peninsula would lead to DPRK being attacked by South Korea, Japan, possibly America and a withdrawal of Chinese support this would eventually topple the fragile regime. The government of DPRK know this however to appease their population they must appear to take a hard line on all “enemies of the state” primarily South Korea. DPRK know that South Korea don’t want war either, it would cost them almost as much as it would cost the North and therefore can afford to make the type of aggressive moves that they have done recently as they know South Korea and its allies don’t want any escalation. Therefore the reasons for the recent attack as is see it was not to be a “declaration of war” or anything else its was DPRK demonstrating to its people that it is strong in a time of uncertainty over the leadership, that was only done to boost domestic support.

The reason South Korea doesn’t want a war is simply economics, they are currently a major economic force in Asia and any war would undermine this and be very unpopular domestically. In addition to this they would have to have American support, however America currently has its forces spread across the Middle East and could not afford a continuation of a war in Asia. DPRK would not be a push over in any conflict they have massive man power and let’s not forget nuclear weapons, America could not afford a war with DPRK financially, logistically or politically. Therefore South Korea can’t go to war even if they wanted to.

There is also an assumption that China is going to rally up and support North Korea in any conflict. Notwithstanding the fact that China and America would never engage each other in a war I have information from a friend of a friend suggesting that China will withdraw support from North Korea and may even engage North Korea in a conflict themselves. China is not going to sacrifice its place on the world table by helping out North Korea and North Korea are probably aware of this therefore it would be North Korea vs the rest of the world.

The only way war could possibly flare up again is if a rouge North Korean military commander launches a massive attack that forces South Korea and her allies to retaliate or a new North Korean leadership moves to take an even harder line on South Korea. However there is absolutely no reason that South Korea and her allies would instigate any conflict in the Korean peninsula because they just can’t take the risk of going to war.

I know ATS is a conspiracy website but we really have to get our feet back down to earth and look at the facts.

reply to post by kevinunknown


Why is it that people still are posting threads, while there are hundreds of the same like on ATS ???!!!
Afraid you can't get enough attention????
Speaking about your feet on the ground..... the USA is the only one here who definitely needs the war, right now!

Now close this thread and post your concernings on the most popular ones about Korea.

reply to post by noahproductions


I think am right in saying this is the only thread saying that there will be no brake in the truce. But i agree there are far too many about North Korea just now considering that there probably isn’t going to be any major conflict. The last thing America needs is a war..... they need money, wars cost money and are domestically unpopular in America.

I can only assume that you don’t agree with me and think that there is going to be a war next week, time will tell.

reply to post by kevinunknown


I hope you are right,especially about China, and I mostly agree. However, mistakes by anyone involved could get things out of control quickly.

I personally know two US servicemembers who got home Wedensday evening for Thanksgiving and were home less than two hours beore they were alerted and recalled to base. I wont mention what branches or bases(I usually don't care about OPSEC when it involves deployments to either of the sandboxes, but NK is different), but they would not have been allowed on pass for Thanksgiving if it was a scheduled thing. Both have logistics/movement jobs that would have them deploying rather early in any potential conflict, and neither is an officer or Senior NCO who you'd expect to be involved in some type of planning for potential conflict. I'm also hearing about alerts at bases that would be the first to deploy in the event of resumption of hostilities on the Korean pennisula.

reply to post by jefwane


I can almost guarantee you about China.

Again without giving away any specifics I have been made aware of information regarding china’s intentions that is not in the public eye. I cannot and will not divulge the nature of this information until the time is right.

The story about your friend doesn’t really surprise me, I would imagine that there is allot going on at American bases in the South I personally don’t think anything will come of it.

I think this is just a bunch of saber rattling going on between both Korea's , I doubt a war will escalate out of this , but you can't totally rule out war , we will know for sure tomorrow.

China need NK as a buffer, even if it does not support the NK regime, it supports NK as a full-fledged country with all the rights of a sovereign nation. Yes I read it on CNN, they called it geopolitical. Razz me if you will for citing CNN, I don't care.

Wars cost money, true, but wars use supplies (US oversupply), are great testing grounds and experience builders, and add to demand for newer weaponry. Not to mention I think after the last 20 years of propaganda and news of NK, the people of the US will be almost totally behind the reasoning.

It has been a long time the US Navy has been in a position to be the mainstay of a war, and against an island-like nation, it would be.

To the OP: There may not be an all out war anytime soon, just because the world at large has enough problems with currency and instability. But for this very reason there MAY be one. The EU will not be able to do much of anything except yell, and it would help in solidifying the US economy (and China's depending on how inclusive they are. baby, baby not.

You know,.. if China wants to hurt the USA, they already could have done this.
Very easy,.. without even one shot being fired !!!
Simply by dumping all the US dollar they have.
The biggest part of the american export is from within China, instead of the USA !! think about this too.
They definitely need eachother,... at least until now.
Who was talking about the war costing money??
The war is one big money machine for the USA !!!
Obama needs it since he seems to loose power.
Economy needs it.
And the so called "world safety" needs it (no other nuclear powers).
Imagine why the US troops had been pulled back so quickly from Iraq.
They're needed somewhere else.

I'm not saying this is going to happen next week, although it would be perfect timing.
Just to settle a new world government.
But it certainly will happen in the near future.

the start of another war in korea could be one bridge to far for the US...

the US forces are sick and tired of the 2 previous wars..and are most certain un-motivated to protect the interrest of the cracy politicians again...

reply to post by ressiv


US troops are tired?
Yes..... and so are the North Koreans (including soldiers),... although the NKorean media show everyone something else.

reply to post by noahproductions


And were exactly are the DPRK troops all tied up.

From what I read they are only inside DPRK .

Originally posted by kevinunknown
If there is to be a brake in the truce then this brake would come from DPRK and not any other sides as none of them actually want a war. DPRK is unlikely to go provoke any opposing side as they in all likelihood don’t want to return to hostilities. Any war in the Korean peninsula would lead to DPRK being attacked by South Korea, Japan, possibly America and a withdrawal of Chinese support this would eventually topple the fragile regime.

But you are forgetting to consider the potentially unstable government in NK. You probably know about the ill-health of KJI. And no-doubt you know that KJU is taking over.
You also have to consider that there are other military factions in NK who have an interest.

If there is indeed an internal turmoil going on, all bets are off.

Going by your logic, NK should never have attacked the island. Yet they did. Even though it risked all out war immediately, they still chose to attack.
They then stated clearly that they would respond again to any provocation. Normally, for any normal nation, this would have to be upheld. In the case of NK though, we could very well imagine that they'll stamp their feet and make these threats while actually not carrying them out.

Basically, NK is far too unpredictable to call it either way. That's why I think your analysis might be flawed.

Originally posted by kevinunknown
The reason South Korea doesn’t want a war is simply economics, they are currently a major economic force in Asia and any war would undermine this and be very unpopular domestically. In addition to this they would have to have American support, however America currently has its forces spread across the Middle East and could not afford a continuation of a war in Asia. DPRK would not be a push over in any conflict they have massive man power and let’s not forget nuclear weapons, America could not afford a war with DPRK financially, logistically or politically. Therefore South Korea can’t go to war even if they wanted to.

You might be correct that they don't want war because of the economic consequences, but the government there is under increasing pressure to respond with force. The people are demanding, and the government have agreed, that force be met with force.

I think you are underestimating the power of public opinion on political decisions. It might not make economic sense, but then what government actually pays any attention to economic needs? We have consistently seen our very own governments making poor economic decisions in favor of political security for themselves.

Originally posted by kevinunknown
There is also an assumption that China is going to rally up and support North Korea in any conflict. Notwithstanding the fact that China and America would never engage each other in a war I have information from a friend of a friend suggesting that China will withdraw support from North Korea and may even engage North Korea in a conflict themselves. China is not going to sacrifice its place on the world table by helping out North Korea and North Korea are probably aware of this therefore it would be North Korea vs the rest of the world.

Sorry, but "friend of a friend says" hold absolutely no weight on these forums.
Other than that, I would agree that China is in no position to make damning statements in either direction. They are being a peace-broker in this scenario, for their own interests of course. China cannot grant support to NK as it will damage their international relationships. and they cannot condemn NK because it would damage the relationship with their neighbor. They are making the right decisions not because of any loyalty to any other nation, but because it's common sense.

Originally posted by kevinunknown
The only way war could possibly flare up again is if a rouge North Korean military commander launches a massive attack that forces South Korea and her allies to retaliate or a new North Korean leadership moves to take an even harder line on South Korea. However there is absolutely no reason that South Korea and her allies would instigate any conflict in the Korean peninsula because they just can’t take the risk of going to war.

I wouldn't say it's the only possible way it would happen, but it is most likely that NK would launch another attack, and SK is forced to respond. Whether that is a rogue element in the NK military or the decision of KJI, it makes little difference to SK or the rest of the world.
Because it is such a secretive and closed state (even though America of course has agents there, as do China), we (as public observers) do not know the mentality of the government there. But this could be why China is making so much noise. Their ties are closer, and it could well be that they know something about the NK attitude to this that none of us do. For instance, perhaps they already know that there is an unstable power vacuum in the NK leadership, or that KJU has taken control of several aspects and that he is inexperienced, hard-line and therefore dangerous?

There is a lot about this that is completely unpredictable. But we have to consider the following:

1. America cannot be seen to be pushed around and will not back away from these military exercises.

2. SK has stated to its people that it will strike back if NK attacks again. This is another thing that they cannot back away from. Even if it would do more harm economically than good, they have to stick to this or be seen as weak in the face of their people and their enemy.

3. NK has stated that they view the military exercises as a provocation, and that they will take more military action against the South for any act they view as provocation.

Without blatantly stating it, they are suggesting that if SK and America go ahead with this exercise they will attack. This is the only aspect of the entire scenario that I believe is currently unpredictable and open to speculation. NK is known to make threats and not actually do anything. They like to bark, but they very rarely bite. They don't care what their public or the outside world thinks of them, they'll just tell their people that they made a decision that somehow gives them victory. And their people will nod and go back to the fields.

As I think you'll agree, this all hinges on NK. And normally I would suggest that they won't do anything. I would usually believe that this is just another example of NK crying for attention.
However, the act of bombing an island already risked sparking an all-out conflict between them. And yet they chose to take that risk. That is why I maintain that there is a lot going on in the NK leadership which makes them unpredictable and the outcome of this more uncertain than ever before.

If they hadn't attacked the island, if they'd done something lesser, I would agree with you that war was not plausible or likely. But the fact that they risked being bombarded by SK already suggests that they are prepared to attack.

reply to post by detachedindividual

how right you are, in today's yahoo, china asked the USA to turn the Air Craft Carrier G.W.
around. now that is a clue, are we provoking them or showing them mussel? in either case they will take at a threat and will use this to there advantage, it is a no win for us or the SK, if we stay then we could start a war if we leave then we are week and gun shy, so far we have done a good job at that, showing the NK how week minded we really are, this is the # time they have "poked and prodded" the SK, and we have done nothing, oh sure lets go tell the UN, Useless Nothings, what NK is doing, and ask for more UN sanctions, that in it self is a provocative act, why do you think the NK is shooting in the first place, any one can see that the war has never ended and now it is turning "hot" once again.

reply to post by detachedindividual


Your analysis could be correct if it were not for the fact that they haven’t gone back to war. yet. Its really that simple if they don’t go to war then I am right. I would also like to point out the wikileaks revelation regarding china, looks like i was right there china aren’t the guardian angels of DPRK. I intend to write a thread about this when i get some time as I had prior knowledge of a secret deal between America and China regarding Chinese intentions towards DPRK.

There probably is going to be a return to the old conflict however i doubt it is going to be this year, we could be into the middle of next year before china pull out all support for DPRK then they will become so week a united Korea becomes inevitable.

A thought I would like to add.

With America conducting simulated combat scenarios in the rejoin with a aircraft carrier it is even less likely that they would attempt any attack.