Geologists are Warning of a Mega Eruption of Merapi

Ok I know no-one wants any threads stating doom like it's some given fact and this isn't my intention - obviously what follows is just speculation on behalf of the scientists concerned so take it as you will ...

Der Spiegel reports on the growling-ever-louder Indonesian Merapi volcano in an article titled: Geologists Warning of Mega-Eruption of Merapi. The Merapi eruptions are becoming more violent – and the big bang could be just ahead. The Indonesian volcano has been spewing 800°C ash clouds for days.

Investigations of the volcano have revealed that an unprecedented Magma reservoir lurks underneath it, says Birger Lühr, a volcano researcher at the GFZ in Potsdam, Germany.

A rough estimate indicates that there is three times more magma than what was ejected by the Indonesian volcano Tambora in 1815 – the biggest eruption in the last 10,000 years, which led to a cooling of the climate globally.Geoscientists aren’t sure what to make of this huge magma reservoir. As Der Spiegel reports, they are hesitant to make predictions of catastrophe (That’s only done in climate science, even though the odds are far less).
Word of a ‘mega-eruption’ is making the rounds among scientists. But apparently they are avoiding the use of the word to avoid being labelled preachers of disasters.

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IF this thing blows like some are speculating it very well could, then the following will give some idea of the kind of repercussions to be expected in Indonesia and around the world...bear in mind that the article below discusses Tambora, while Merapi is thought to contain THREE times the amount of magma in Tambora.

Tambora

"the bright sun was extinguish'd... morn came and went--and came, and brought no day"
-Darkness by George Gordon, Lord Byron


The Eruption
On April 10, 1815, a series of eruptions began, culminating to the largest eruption in recorded history. The eruption lasted several days. It blew a chunk off of the mountain almost a mile wide. The volcanic column, after flying 40 km into the sky, returned to the ground, creating a huge pyroclastic flow of ash, pumice, and debris. The pyroclastic flow alone killed more than 10,000 people in its path. The ash that fell from Tambora travelled as far as 1300 km (800 miles) away.

When the pyroclastic flow reached the ocean, the debris created such a large displacement of water that tsunamis as high as 5 meters emanated out from the island. These tsunamis caused flooding, devastation, and death on many of the other Indonesian islands.

After the eruption was over, and estimated 100-150 cubic kilometers of ash and debris were said to have been ejected from the mountain.

The Year without a Summer

In 1816, the overal temperature on Earth, specifically in the Northern Hemisphere, lowered so drastically that it became known as the year without a summer. Weather was disturbed all over, with problems in Western Europe and the United States, as well as Asia. Monsoon season was affected, which is thought to also be tied to a cholera epidemic that year. In places like New England and Canada, frost was recorded in every month of the year, and snow fell in June. This phenomenon is known as global cooling.

The summer temperatures in 1816 averaged just a few degrees below normal, but as mentioned, it frosted throughout the summer. The highs were still close to 100 degreed Fahrenheit on some days. However, the cold spells, especially at night, cause massive crop failure, and, as a result, even more famine.

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reply to post by cosmicpixie
Wow! Nice find. S&F!

Scary stuff happening on the Pacific Rim.

reply to post by butcherguy


I came across it on GPL...not a site I like but sometimes news comes in there quickly so I keep an eye open over there. Before this Merapi event I wasn't the slightest bit aware or interested in volcanoes but it's really piqued my interest and I've been keeping a close eye on the news throughout the day, each day. It's potentially a massive event we may be witness to but then again it might never happen. Half of me is getting a bad feeling while the other half of me thinks this is just more predicted doom that is never going to happen.

Good find. Flag for you. Sure some people might call it doom and gloom, but its also based on History, Facts, and knowledge. But even here some people will dismiss this as "not going to happen", but it might. It might... What about a chain reaction of other Volcano's, as Douglas Adams would say, "great things are a foot." or maybe Arthur Dent.

wow!!

lets hope it doesnt happen then!!

I think we should appease the gods by sacrificing Justin Beiber to the Volcano. Err.....wait.....that might make it instantly blow it's top. Well....we'll find someway to get rid of him someday.

Im not particularly into prophecies and by no means am I a religious nut, but when reading about what we could expect I couldnt get a certain passage from the revelations out of my head...something about a 3rd of the sky being blacked out or the sun turning dark or something to that effect?

Well if this sucker blows its top in a massive explosion then it will be biblical. I find it hard to think anything could have been louder than the Krakatoa eruption as that one made people deaf from the explosion and also caused a huge tidal wave.

Always like to have visuals in my threads This is an image taken earlier today I think.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/640dc5cd7136.jpg[/atsimg]

reply to post by wisintel


Awesome pic. I read today that the flow travels at around 60 mph. Does anyone know how far the flows actually travel ? I mean how long are these rivers of magma, how far do they extend typically ?. Imagine seeing it happen, it must be terrifying

Nice find.

I have had a facination with volcanos since I was a little boy, I love the visuals and the sheer power of even a small volcano. BUT, even this one makes me a bit nervous.

S&F for ya

I've been reading these " I feel like something bad is gonna happen" threads and while i agree that something big is going to happen, i feel like it'll be along these lines here, a natural disaster instead of a false flag event.

Of course my opinion is just that... could be nothing.

I hope and pray nothing happens though...

peace

Can someone answer me please, did this volcano just erupt or is it just spitting out? arent they the same thing? does that mean we will not have a summer in 2011/12?

Rising concerns about other volcano activity too :

Meanwhile, worries are growing over two other volcanoes that are showing increased activity. 

Mount Semeru in Lumajang, East Java, has been almost continuously active since 1967 and on Thursday morning it spewed smoke 100 meters into the air. In Sikka, East Nusa Tenggara, authorities have warned of increased activity at Mount Egon.

“Since Wednesday the mountain has been shrouded in a thick cloud emanating from the crater,” said Suryanto, head of the Egon observation post. 

Two other mountains in East Nusa Tenggara — Rokatenda and Lewotobi — are also reported to be exhibiting increased activity.

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reply to post by RizeorDie


NO. Neither.

There is a lot of seismic activity, some burps, some lava flows, but those are not uncommon over the past decade or so. Everything in the area is pointing toward an imminent larger "eruption" but nothing significant has happened yet.

Please keep your plans for next summer. We are still on schedule for the typical seasons for now.

If this thing kicks off big time, as in literally blowing apart, this biblical prophecy of revelations comes to mind; "And a mountain of fire was cast into the sea, and a 3rd of life in the sea died, and a 3rd of the sea became as blood, and a 3rd of the ships were destroyed"

there is a lot of activity on twitter atm

twitter.com...#!/search/Merapi

I don't understand most of it but some links are to very drastic pictures.

reply to post by cosmicpixie

If this happens we're in trouble, imagine the panic that would ensue if everyone woke up one day only to find the sun obscured by a thick layer of ash.

www.spiegel.de...

hope im not breaking any rules, but found the above link which is in German and has a picture gallery with some seemingly informative images... maybe could be of interest =)

Good evening,

x

aLaN

Remember that we're talking geological time scales here. An eruption coming "soon" could mean 50-100 years from now. Also, just because there is 3 times the magma doesn't mean it will all come out if/when this erupts. I wouldn't be too worried yet.