Somebody else made a thread just now with a similar take:
abovetopsecret.com...
I agree that there isn't much left for UFO investigators, be they "believers", "debunkers", or those who do not have a bias either way. No
sighting will be recognized as legitimate because of CGI and various technologies: Radio/remote-controlled craft, 3D holographic projection systems,
non-powered craft, and the "flavor of the month" type debunks like chinese lanterns and sky divers (I'm not saying these are BS canned responses -
there certainly are a ton of videos of chinese lanterns and sky divers with magnesium flares [haven't heard anybody mention skydivers with LED lights
or any other type of device - skydivers plus RC quadrorotor plus chinese lantern hats = creamed believer])
Any phenomena can be recreated given the technology, and humanity is at a point where any UFO video we see now, during the tail end of 2010, could
have been perfectly hoaxed at least twenty years ago with then-current tech. Even radar contacts are potentially useless evidence - I haven't read
any scientific papers, but I have no doubts that tech exists to create false radar readings by manipulating various EM frequencies. I personally
believe that there is ET life out there and that it almost certainly has visited our planet, but I cannot objectively and logically say ANY UFO video
is positive proof, given technology's abilities and the often deceptive but fun-loving motives of humans.
The point is, we cannot rely on empirical data to make logical conclusions, as the empirical data can be easily faked. We must use logic and
deduction/induction, maintaining caution so as to not commit any logical fallacies in our reasoning as well as only using very well-accepted
scientific data from which to induct. Here's an attempt at examining UFOs/ETs logically using deduction and a few assumptions which are all held to
be fact (I read something similar to this argument a while back, if anybody has a link or something I would appreciate it), no UFO videos or sightings
needed:
It is irrational to believe our planet Earth is the only planet capable of supporting life as we know it - Drake and others have demonstrated the
vastness of the universe implies many, many planets nearly identical to Earth surely exist, we just lack the tech to observe such bodies.
Our planet is known to be ~4.54 billion years old. The universe is known to be ~13.75 billion years old. Because we can look into the sky and
essentially see back in time, we can see that there existed galaxies and solar systems before ours. Thus, there have been many, many galaxies > solar
systems > planets > Earth-like planets before the time of our own. We know that there are
planets at least ~12.7 billion years old.
Life on Earth evolved to its current state and level of technological development in no more than ~4.54 billion years. Thus, there has been ample time
for life to evolve on other planets using our own planet as a model of the time scales necessary for development of life. The above-mentioned ~12.7
billion year old planet, for example, is nearly thrice the age of Earth, and could possibly have developed life and technology comparable to
current-day humanity as early as ~8.16 billion years ago (12.7 - 4.54 = 8.16).
The vastness of our universe implies that if it is possible for life to develop on planets other than Earth (and we know statistically this is
true/almost certain), then life had already developed long before our planet even cooled off. There are so many galaxies, solar systems, and planets
that there would still be an astronomically high number of planets "eligible" for Earth-like life even before Earth existed.
Assuming that the Drake equation and related estimates of planetary bodies in the universe are not completely wrong, then we are left with the
inescapable logical conclusion that life exists in the universe which is developed to at least our own technological level (our level of tech might be
the highest possible level of tech, we might hit a brick wall - I don't think we ever will, but it is possible) and has for quite a time before Earth
was created.
Based on this series of in/de-ductions, we can make some inductions about ET life visiting Earth. First, we must consider the technological
element:
It is either possible or not possible for light-speed and faster-than-light-speed travel. We know we can get up to within a few % points of light
speed (just need a lot of energy), and even 95% light speed would mean we could get to Alpha Centauri in about 4.5 years - which is a very doable
travel time. However, even at light speed, it would take over 4 years, and that's for the closest star to us.
So, if ETs have reached Earth, they either...
1 - do not experience time as we do
2 - have very long life-spans compared to Homo Sapiens
3 - have faster-than-light travel
or
4 - are on a one-way trip
It could very well be a combination of the above. If any of the above are possible, the vastness of the universe implies their existence. So, if any
of the above are possible and it is plausible that technology might be developed which could transport ET life to humanity, then they have either
already made it here. Consider that if we develop faster-than-light travel (or some type of remote-viewing tech), time and space become much less of a
bother. Given Moore's Law of the development of technologies, we can reason that quite soon after faster-than-light travel is developed, we will make
huge leaps forward in utilization of the technology, exploring the universe much as we explore our own planet, limited only by our technology.
If such technology is not possible, then they never will visit. It seems to me that the most logical conclusion is: Either they have already checked
us out, long ago, or never will.