Is it possible that the Deepwater Horizon incident has caused an unusual drought around the Gulf?

NOAA precip
look at departure from normal and look at the increments all the way back to the last 180 days which is when the Gulf incident occurred and you will notice that the entire area that the areas the spill affected or got near or those areas that are down wind from the spill is at least in 6 inches to 2 FEET rainfall deficit and a La Nina's effects in those areas should include above average rainfall during the summer as can be seen on second map.
La Nina effects
And what could cause hurricanes to dodge a particular area the whole season which was abnormally active.
And look at this not a single area in the drought has higher than 30% chance of precipitation for the next seven days
graphical forcasts
Also on the top map of La Nina's effects it says the Gulf is usually drier than normal in winter during La Nina.
Is it possible that the BP incident was intentionally caused not to create a hyper active hurricane season but rather a many months long drought in the south so that government control can be easier?
I have never seen such a drought being neglected by the mass media entirely like this before.

I have wondred the same thing. We have had no rain and none is forecast.

www.weather.gov...
The ENTIRE state of Florida is under a red flag warning
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...
It's just gonna get worse!
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov...
The Gulf stream might be collapsing notice how heat builds in gulf until early September then that heat is somehow lost and the Carribean gets warmer until October followed by cooling while the equateral Atlantic warms
The Gulf stream's effect is weakening quickly the later two thirds of the animation while a La Nina is noticably getting stronger in the Pacific.

I have been in central Louisiana for the summer, and I think it may have rained 2 times in 3 months! I've lived near the Gulf coast all my life, and I have NEVER seen a hurricane season as quite as this. I'm sure it has probably happened, but I don't remember. All the trees around here are dying from no water and I have to water the plants every day.

interesting thread, nogard.

i started a similarly-themed one about the apparent lack of storms passing directly over the gulf this year.

Is the Oil Leak preventing storms from impacting the US Gulf Region?

www.abovetopsecret.com...

If only this could be steered into the US South without devoloping.
possible tropical cyclone map
For some weird reason Paula became the tiniest tropical hurricane i ever remember being in the Gulf even if it was briefly in the Gulf.

reply to post by Nogard2012


Really! We could actually use a tropical storm right now...we would get a few straight days of rain. The ground is like cement here it's so dry.

reply to post by StealthyKat


if the option is dry or rain-and-crude-and-corexxit, maybe you should be happy with the drought.

reply to post by justadood


LOL....yeah, I guess you're right

long term forcasting maps

look at the OND (October November December) to MAM (March April May).

reply to post by Nogard2012


Interesting....we had our first rainfall in months last night...but not enough to make a difference. I gave up on my plants...they all died.

reply to post by StealthyKat


The drought finally made local news
23 days of no precipitation

drought index Florida
Look at drought index this is like spring of 2007 already which was when the skies were covered in smoke for an entire week in April.
And in the forecast nothing for the area mentioned above although the Gulf coast might finally get some relief.
Weather forcast

It's official that the conditions will worsen until next summer.
NOAA La Nina forecast

Originally posted by Nogard2012
It's official that the conditions will worsen until next summer.
NOAA La Nina forecast

edit on 22-10-2010 by Nogard2012 because: forgot to type in post box

...although La Nina is not related to the Gulf oil leak.

just to clarify

reply to post by justadood


What i am saying is that the area around the gulf is supposed to have had above average precipitation during the summer from the La Nina but the area got below average rainfall instead and during the winter the weather is expected to be drier than normal because of not only the La Nina as mentioned but also whatever has caused the summer to be unusually dry in that area.
I forgot to mention this on my previous post that all areas are expected to have at least some relief except for central Florida where it hasn't rained for 26 days currently and this could be the first time such a large area of Florida hasn't had rain for an entire calender month in recorded history.
AHPs precipitation analysis

reply to post by Nogard2012


isee. thanks for the clarification.

there are so many variables to weather prediction, it is difficult to tell where the case and where the effect is. But I agree that it certainly appears that the gulf spill is effecting weather patterns. This is a great thread and I hope we can continue to collect info to piece together something reasonable and realistic.

The Gulf area is getting some relief except central and south Florida where today only a 20% of rain for today the highest all month and what is expected for this week.
NWS forecast
Rainfall deficits in that area since April 20th have reached 6 inches to over two FEET.

reply to post by Nogard2012


how does that compare to totals during the same basic time period from years past?

reply to post by justadood


look at archive month year on that site
It shows that the Gulf coast had in 2009
June. 4 to 6 inch deficet
July. 1 to 2 inch surplus
August. same as July
September. 1 to 8 inch surplus
October. 3 to 10 inch surplus

2010
June.1 inch surplus to 3 inch deficet
July.normal to 4 inch deficet
August.4 inch surplus to 2 inch deficet
September.normal to 6 inch deficet
October.normal to 4 inch deficet with up to 7 inch deficet in Florida

In October of this year so far the southern half of Texas and all of Florida excluding the Keys have had less rain than the rest of the entire country, even the desert southwest.

reply to post by Nogard2012


interesting.

i will review the site later to check years previous to 2009, but i have to say i dont see conclusive evidence so far.

clearly there will be wild fluctuations from year to year.


i still cant quite agree with the certainty of your current signature "Thank you BP for putting the Gulf in a drought."

Until we compare this years numbers with the past 10 or twenty years, it is quite unrealistic to claim the current drought is out of the ordinary.