WAR: Poll: Most Americans Say Iraq War Was a Mistake

A combined USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll released today shows a new finding in the American public's view of the war in Iraq. Following majority support since the start of the war, now most Americans believe the war was a mistake. Interestingly, this is the first time since Vietnam that the polls showed such disfavor for US military action.



This report appears to be slanted toward a very anti-Bush opinion. I am not questioning the reliability (can I get the same result again) of the numbers, but rather the validity (does it measure what is says it measures) of the numbers. I would like to see how the questions were asked.

However, if we assume the poll numbers to be valid, it could prove to be a decisive point in U.S. history.

[edit on 25-6-2004 by Banshee]

Originally posted by BOHICA
This report appears to be slanted toward a very anti-Bush opinion. I am not questioning the reliability (can I get the same result again) of the numbers, but rather the validity (does it measure what is says it measures) of the numbers. I would like to see how the questions were asked.

Some Gallup notes on how they ask the "mistake" question...same way since 1965. Plus new measures for Iraq like "All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not?"

Fifty-four percent of Americans now say that the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, marking the first time since the war in that country began that a majority have held this negative view.

This trend is important because it allows some comparability to the Vietnam War, during which Gallup consistently asked this same "mistake" question. In the early stages of that war, in late August and early September 1965, only 24% said that the United States had made a mistake in sending troops to that country. That percentage slowly rose over the next several years, and by August 1968, the tide turned and 53% said that Vietnam had been a mistake.

Gallup has asked this same question about Iraq nine times since March 2003. The previous high "mistake" percentage was 44% in May 2004. The current reading marks a major change from as recently as the June 3-6 poll, in which 41% said that the war was not a mistake, and 58% said it was.

Another Gallup measure on the Iraq war, "All in all, do you think it was worth going to war in Iraq, or not," has been more consistently negative in recent months. Although as many as 76% of Americans said that the Iraq war was worth it in April 2003, by May 2004, a majority said that it was not worth it. In the current poll, 46% say the war was worth it, while 51% say it was not.

gallup.com

I should start my own poll....Question..."Do you think you are smarter then the average America?"....I bet 90% would say yes....most people are retarded...take all polls with a grain of salt...

Originally posted by BOHICA
...For the first time since the start of the war in Iraq, a majority of Americans now say the U.S.-led invasion was a mistake, according to a USA Today/CNN/Gallup Poll.
...X...
However, if we assume the poll numbers to be valid, it could prove to be a decisive point in U.S. history.
...X...

What the poll implies is:
The fundamental information set that the public derives their opinions from
has now changed to the point where
they perceive the war differently than they perceived it previously.

Public opinion is driven by knowledge as well as by ignorance.
It would be instructive to know what factors have yielded this result.
...X...

this is not the first and only poll saying this, this poll just confirms what is already being said
here's an earlier ATSNN article on the same issue, from June 11th

New Poll; Iraq Situation didn't Merit War
A poll conducted by the Los Angeles Times shows that voters now feel that the situation in Iraq didn't merit going to war. Fifty-three percent of the people polled said the situation in Iraq did not merit war, but 43 percent still feel that the war was justified. While many feel it is too late to abandon the efforts in Iraq, many fear that democratic government cannot be established in there. This same poll was done in March and November and that those times, the numbers were exactly reversed.

[edit on 6-25-2004 by worldwatcher]

Most people are completly unaware of what is happening beyong what is presented on the news. I haven't watched the news for some time. Have you seen any news media, from those sources you mention above, reporting what the UNMOVIC report of the UN says on the new findings of the wmd? or what the UN, and Russia are now saying?

BTW, I believe Russia came out with this statement, that they warned the US of possible terrorist attacks, to wash themselves clean of any links that there are between Russia and terrorism in the US.



[edit on 25-6-2004 by Muaddib]

Most Americans? How can they say that? Did they actually poll most Americans? I think not.

Anyone who understands anything at all about polling knows that you can make a poll say anything you want depending on who you ask and how you phrase the question.

Even if this poll actually did have a large enough sample group and was unbiased and was higly accurate (all of which I question) - it is very easy to say in retrospect that it was a mistake. Hind sight is 20/20 right? I think even the government and the Pres. realize now that it was a mistake. Let's compare this to the polls prior to the initiation of the war - very different story. So what is the value of this poll other than to fuel the anti GW fire further? I think a more relavant question to ask now is where do we go from here? How do we end this and get out of there without leaving a wake of total chaos in our paths and more enemies?

Would you please deny ignorance?

I find myself giving this speech way too often on ATS, and more often than not let it go, but here's another freebie.

While it's true that anyone who understands a little about polling knows that you can make a poll say anything you want depending on who you ask and how you phrase the question. It's also true, that anyone that knows alot about the polling industry knows that bias and purposeful misrepresentation is not going to be the case with a reputable independent MRA/CASRO firm like Gallup.

While the client, which in this case is CNN/USA Today may choose to editorialize on the results by making the headline "Majority Call War a Mistake" rather than "Confidence in Economy Improving" (also reported in the same Gallup Poll), that does not impune the integrity of the independent polling organization or it's strict adherance to statistical and ethical guidelines strongly enforced in our industry.

Speaking of which, I'd stake my life on Gallup's sampling method here. I don't even have to look it up (which you are always welcome to do when you see a poll) to know it's standard RDD (random digit dialing) among prefixes pulled to statisitically represent the population of the US. Not to weight toward Democrats, not puppy owners, not oil barons... a time tested statistical representation of the population of the US.

I mean they aren't making this up as they go along. If multi-million dollar rollouts of new products are based on public opinion sciences, I think they can handle a damn political poll. They aren't that big a deal.

As to sample size. Anyone that thinks you need to interview 51% or more of a population to get any meaningful, reliable, statistically significant and time tested results needs a math class.

And here it is...

In this case, I'd call the 1005 sample overkill. But that's what media clients like to report in findings since the public can't imagine how homogeneous and predictable they really are.

I'd wager this poll had the same percentage results after the first 400 completes. I KNOW after the first 600 out of a population of 280,000,000 they had a highly reliable representation of the American public at a 95% confidence level and +/- 4% interval. By taking it up to 1005 they got the interval down around +/- 3.1

Completely redundant, since I guarantee nothing changed between 400 to 600 to 1000 completes, but that's how statistics work. And news media like the lowest MOE number they can report.

To put it ALL in perspective, had Gallup interviewed 9,999 people (10 times the amount they did) the reported interval would have only gone down to 3.0. THAT'S IT! From 3.1 to 3.0

And it would take millions of interviews to get it much lower than that. You approach the point of diminished returns very quickly in sampling.

It's redundant. It's predictable. It's math.