What if hurricane Earl does not turn North?

Every article I see on hurricane Earl states that it is expected to turn North, but what if it doesn't turn north? This possibility seems to be something that mainstream media does not want to consider.

This link shows Earl's current position.

www.ajc.com...

Katrina formed over the Bahamas, and passed over Florida, why are all the news outlets so sure that Earl with turn north.

Could it b that the big media doesn't want people to start considering the consequences of Earl entering the Gulf?

Should people in those regions be preparing for the worse?

If I live in that region of the country, I would be preparing for Earl, irregardless of what mainstream media is expecting.

Well the usual track of hurricanes in the Northern Hemisphere is to swing north due to the coriolis effect. Coriolis also affects us here in the Southern Hemisphere, are cyclones swing southward away from the equator.

If the models are going for an early track to the north, than its a pretty good chance that this track will occur. Keep prepared anyway, when it comes to these kind of storms, one can not afford to be to complacent

reply to post by poet1b


As Oz mentioned with the Coriolis effect, Earl will most likely be caught up in the high pressure system currently sitting over the eastern United States.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e0e8b43193c7.jpg[/atsimg]

It is possible that the computer models are forecasting a drift far enough north that Earl will reach the outer reaches of the high pressure system and will be swept up and directed north and east out to sea.

However, since high pressure systems move clockwise, if Earl does get caught up in the southern portion of the high pressure system, it's possible it could be directed into the Gulf of Mexico. It really all depends on it's track in between now and the time it reaches the high pressure system.

I don't believe the projected track has anything to do with any conspiracy by the media, though. The most likely track is determined by computer models which factor in the atmospheric conditions of the general area which the storm is moving. The computer models have no bias unless they are programmed to have one, and I highly doubt they would re-program their software simply to steer this storm away from the Gulf of Mexico.

The better question would be what if the High moves east?

If that happens the storm will enter the GOM. That would not be good at all.

Originally posted by SWCCFAN
The better question would be what if the High moves east?

If that happens the storm will enter the GOM. That would not be good at all.

Its very unlikely

There's a pretty vigorous trough associated with that high pressure system which is actually increasing its travel speed towards the north east. Unless that high pressure system somehow, miraculously decays, very rapidly, then that hurricane is going to continue on its present track.

Edit to add- In saying that, if it somehow slips in behind the high, then the Florida area may be affected, but at the moment that doesnt look probable

[edit on 30/8/2010 by OzWeatherman]

Originally posted by SWCCFAN
The better question would be what if the High moves east?

They have computer models for high and low pressure systems as well, and those models factor in to the models that are directing Earl northward.

I'm by no means claiming computer models are perfect, but I cannot think of a time when they were THAT wrong. That would be quite a huge difference to go from tracking north towards the northeast United States to tracking west towards the Gulf of Mexico.

The highest probability - by far - is that this hurricane will hit between North Carolina and New York/Connecticut/Rhode Island, if it hits anywhere on the coast of the United States.

Everyone on the coast of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean should ALWAYS watch a tropical system in the Atlantic no matter what the models say. But in terms of probabilities, the most likely scenario is that this hurricane will go north.

I would actually be more worried about that low pressure system developing south east of Florida. If it continues west, it may just sneak up into the gulf

Of course its way to early to make a forecast on its track

[edit on 30/8/2010 by OzWeatherman]

Most of the time stoms follow the projected path given out by the Natl Hurricane center - however this one is still a few days away and weather patterns can change. Keep a close eye, buy some supplies before everyone hits the stores and hope for the best. As it is there are rip tides along the east coast - stay safe!

Most of the time stoms follow the projected path given out by the Natl Hurricane center - however this one is still a few days away and weather patterns can change. Keep a close eye, buy some supplies before everyone hits the stores and hope for the best. As it is there are rip tides along the east coast - stay safe!

I went to look at my steering flow for dummies chart and it is temporarily offline?

cimss.ssec.wisc.edu...

reply to post by NovusOrdoMundi


I don't know a lot about weather prediction, but wouldn't that low to the west indicate that the high will move west?

What I see so far from the current storms direction is that it is heading straight for the Gulf.

IF you look at the path Katrina followed, it moved straight west.

It seems that most of these storms move northwest, and that would put Earl into the Gulf.

Here is a map showing Danielle and Earl.

www.hurricanecity.com...

Here is an article on the subject, and it doesn't seem as clear cut as people are trying to make out here.

kids.earth.nasa.gov...

The average tropical cyclone moves from east to west in the tropical trade winds that blow near the equator. When a storm starts to move northward, it exchanges easterly winds for the westerly winds that dominate the temperate region. When the steering winds are strong, it is easier to predict where a hurricane will go. When the steering winds are weak, a storm seems to take on a mind of its own, following an erratic path that makes forecasting very difficult.

Personally, I still have little faith in our ability to predict weather patterns.

reply to post by poet1b


You do realise that westerly winds originate from a westerly direction right? This is exactly what is supposed to occur when the hurricane moves northwards

Ether stay and prepare for it, or evacuate.

It's not that hard...or do you need someone to tell you what to do?

Originally posted by poet1b
IF you look at the path Katrina followed, it moved straight west.

I'm sure there were different weather systems in different locations at that time as well that directed Katrina in that direction. Simply because one storm does it does not mean another one five years later will do the same. There are many factors that come in to play when determining which way the storm will go.

reply to post by crazydaisy


LOL time to do the run for toilet paper and milk. And maybe some ice.

I actually have to change travel plans depending on what it does.

Glad I didn't splurge on a beach rental.

This isn't going to help the economy much. Scaring all the shore towns on the biggest travel weekend of the year?

Ehh I'm not worried if it comes my way, lived here my whole life. Hurricanes are entertaining at this level for me. I use to run everytime one came this way but realized it was a waste of money and time. Most Floridians who grew up here don't leave, they did at first, now we stay so if it comes no biggie. It's been pretty dull lately so a hurricane would be nice, one that isn't so big. I remember in 2004 when we got nailed by all those storms, it became a joke and people had hurricane parties. I left one year in 1999 only to find out it completely turned and barely dropped rain where we were yet we were told to leave.. We were stuck in Rome, Georgia. Nice place btw. Loved it actually.

The only thing I worry about is it getting near the Gulf, not sure that is a good idea.

Someone mentioned rip tides, yes they are very strong right now. I wouldn't suggest going in the water if you can't swim well.

reply to post by NovusOrdoMundi


The thing that gets me is how one sided the predictions are. No explanations, just this constant repeat that the storm will turn north.

It is like big media marches lock step to the same tune they were told to follow.

Might be that they mostly don't want any consideration as to what might happen if the Gulf is stirred up.

Originally posted by poet1b
The thing that gets me is how one sided the predictions are.

If they're one sided it's fairly certain that it will happen the way it is being reported. This isn't politics, it's the weather. Weather doesn't create equal sides. It just does what it does and that's how it is.

The only point in covering something up is if you're certain you can keep it covered up forever or at least long enough to where people won't notice when it is uncovered. There's no point in not reporting the possibility of a path towards the Gulf of Mexico if it really and truly has a high probability because when it's barreling down on the east coast of Florida, people will take notice.

reply to post by poet1b


As someone who works for an organisation who actually puts out weather warnings for cyclonic storm systems, I can tell you that you are way off.

The actual path of the storm is compiled with a compilations of models. Its not one model. The track is devised using the average forecast position of all the models combined. Its NOT going to swing towards the gulf. Unless all the 7 or 8 models used are wrong....sheesh

The media only tells people what people in weather organisations tell them (apart from the occasions where they mislabel weather phenomena). There's no conspiracy or cover up to hide anything from the general public.

You're in panic mode

Originally posted by OzWeatherman
As someone who works for an organisation who actually puts out weather warnings for cyclonic storm systems

Really? That's awesome. I always wanted to be in meteorology when I was a child. I mainly wanted to be a storm chaser. But like most childhood dreams it never materialized. It's still a strong interest and fascination of mine, though.