EARL is coming ..... stay alert

Having noticed "EarL" when she was just a cloud bank in Africa, I'm going to go out on a limb here, and say she makes landfall near Washington D.C. and finally gives the Capitol the cleansing it has desperately needed now for some time....

But, on a serious note, I do hope all are safe, and no one is harmed wherever she touches down....

[edit on 30-8-2010 by freetree64]

One pic, says it all......my personal favorite....



www.ssd.noaa.gov...

reply to post by freetree64


That is one big ol storm I tell you. That thing covers like three or four states.

Whoa - that looks like one mean storm.. stay safe everyone.

For those of us safely ensconced in another hemisphere are there any webcams along where it is due to hit that can be monitored during it's journey to shore?

I live in Puerto Rico and I can tell ya...that thing is huge!.
Power outages have affected more than 1 million people in the island...and the hurricane center didn't touched the land.

no heavy rains but very, very windy.

I'm on the south shore of Long Island and I can't wait to see the surf if Earl hits hard. Definitely gonna be interesting the next few days...

reply to post by freetree64


That link isnt working for me, anychance someone could embedd it please ?

Secon line

NOAA is reporting that watches may be issued for the east coast later today.

I have been getting conflicting information from the news, which means they are not sure.


I wonder how much fiona is going to affect this.


and for Puerto Rico, I am feeling for you guys. Stay safe.

reply to post by freetree64


Hey freetree64, I remember when you were worried about this one when it was still over Burkina Faso in Africa over on the Hurricane Watch thread!

Does anyone here know of any historical data or links to data, regarding Hurricanes that have impacted the NE of the US?

I am specifically curious if the geographical layout of the NE coastline might act to actually increase the possible levels of strom surge from Earl.

As Earl pushes North, and with the NE kinda jutting out into the Atlantic due north of him, will the ocean get pushed up even higher than normal surge levels? High or low tide effect?

As it stands, Earl looks like it will be impacting the NE on Friday, so what are the tide forecasts for your area, if you live in the NE? Might be important to consider, depending on where you live.

reply to post by Free4Ever2


There are 2 eyewalls that are murging into one. It is hard to see now, but we should see it later in the day.

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/2bef7ae88c78.jpg[/atsimg]

Here is the latest video update from the weather channel. It also has footage of damage already done. I will try an post the next one that comes out at 2:00p.m.

[edit on 31-8-2010 by Anmarie96]

reply to post by intrepid


I think this blog answers your question better. Not only that, it explains why they can't say for sure yet one way or the other what is going to happen till about tomorrow.


first warning weather blog

There are a few different forces that will ultimately steer Earl. One is the high pressure building out in the Atlantic right now, in the wake of Danielle. That high is currently forcing the west-northwest turn of Earl, and will take it more to the northwest in the next day or so. The next force we need to watch is the high pressure over us right now. We think that high will break down later this week as a new front moves our way. When it happens, the new front will act as a wall blocking Earl from coming onshore - and it will eventually kick Earl back off to the northeast. Until that happens, Earl can't make the more northerly and then northeasterly turn it needs to take to stay over the water (and not make landfall in the U.S.).

As of the 5pm update by the NHC, Earl has started its turn north, currently heading Northwest at 14 mph. This is a dangerous storm, and needs to be closely watched. It is still projected to stay parallel to the coast, but any slight deviation, and this could be really horrible. Keep watching.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 68.8W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM ENE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


and

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 OR
13 KNOTS DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THAT IS
STEERING EARL TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD AS A BROAD TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE EARL ON A MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.
THEREAFTER...EARL WILL REACH THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
AND WILL LIKELY TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION UNANIMOUSLY PROVIDED BY TRACK
GUIDANCE. ONCE AGAIN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED A FEW
MILES TO THE WEST BEFORE 48 HOURS FOLLOWING THE TRENDS OF THE ECMWF
AND THE GFS.

GIVEN THE LARGE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
EARL...AND THE NEW DEFINITION OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS...A HURRICANE
AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE MID-
ATLANTIC COAST.

INTERESTS FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EARL.

reply to post by lasertaglover


Why thanks, glad ya remembered, never expected this though, figured it would be a big one, but wasn't sure if it might make landfall, guess they still aren't sure.... However, here is an interesting piece of news, the only forecast path that shows "Earl" making landfall is the US Navy's on "Strompulse" showing it making landfall at Virginia Beach... Now I'm sure I don't have to tell you all the assets the US Navy has in that area, sure wouldn't be like them to spook there own people now would it??? Just a thought, seems kinda strange to me.....

www.stormpulse.com...

[edit on 31-8-2010 by freetree64]

Now there's this, also being reported from Virginia?????



www.upi.com...

I'm in the NorthEast and my local weather station says thunder storms for Friday. Hope that's all it is.

reply to post by Night Star



At this point, they will only give you the forecast as if the tropical systems were not in play - as they are uncertain. All forecasted along the east coast - inclulding Martha's Vineyard (where my sister who better call me is) mention nothing at this point - not until they are certain and watches and warnings are issued - for those of course who pay no attention to the real weather or us here and have holiday plans

Originally posted by Bijen
EARL is going to smash the Virgin Islands completly........ god help those people.....www.tropicalstormrisk.com...

do you think it will hit the outer banks in NC ?
i was there for 10 days 2 weeks ago in vacation
i saw a huge storm .. i was on the beach admiring the coming hot rain
lightning strike everywhere
all the sky was grey
i took picture of this storm directly on the beach
to show some people here how a storm can be so beautifull but so dangerous
i wish i was still there to go back on the beach and see how the monster look like from far away on the ocean
it was a big storm making big wave ..
next morning .. ten of thousand of jelly fish was on the sand near the beach.. i walked 3 mile on the beach trying not to stop on one ahahah
those can hurt lol

I found this chilling article from 2005 regarding the effects of a Category 3 Hurricane hitting New York over a labor day weekend. It also mentions some of the affects of historic storms that have hit in the past including the 'Long Island Express' storm of 1938.

If you are prone to panicking, don't read this. I am posting for historical reference, and also as a 'worst-case' scenario 'read' only. As of right now (8am update from NHC), Earl is still forecasted to head north parallel to the coast.

Excerpt from article:

"Imagine the following: It's a beautiful Labor Day weekend. Sunny, cloudless, 80 degrees. Backyard barbecues are fired up all over the metropolitan area, and the beaches of New York City, New Jersey and southern Long Island are jam-packed with bathers. The only sign that something unusual is happening is the relatively big waves rolling up on Coney Island. It's a surfer's paradise. Mike Lee isn't enjoying the long weekend. For the last two weeks, Lee, the Director of Watch Command at New York City's Office of Emergency Management, has been observing a series of weather systems form off the western coast of Africa, organize themselves into the familiar swirling pattern of tropical storms, and line up like airplanes coming in for a landing on the Caribbean. One of those storms, a category-4 monster hurricane with sustained winds of 140 m.p.h., is violently churning the ocean 350 nautical miles off the coast of Georgia...."

www.nypress.com...

Current view of the Atlantic:

www.stormpulse.com...

www.nhc.noaa.gov...

www.abovetopsecret.com...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/bc51ceb91e9a.gif[/atsimg]

reply to post by lasertaglover


Is that a fourth one forming on Africa?