Yes Folks, Hindenburg Omen Tripped Again

I don't usually spend much time in finance, but this is pretty shocking to me. What do ya'll think:

blogs.wsj.com...

The latest trigger has prompted the Omen’s creator, Jim Miekka, to exit the market. “I’m taking it seriously and I’m fully out of the market now,” Miekka, a blind mathematician, said in a telephone interview from his home in Surry, Maine. “I would’ve probably stayed in until the beginning of September,” depending on how the indicators varied. “That was my basic plan, until the Hindenburg came along.”

I know that there are other threads dealing with the omen, but I didn't see one that quoted the "creator" of the omen himself. Even he admits that

The Omen has been behind every market crash since 1987, but significant stock-market declines have followed only 25% of the time. So there’s a high likelihood that the Omen could be nothing more than a false signal.

So, what do we look for now? Is this something that I should truly worry about, or not? Is Miekka jumping the gun, so to speak?

Edit to add this quote:

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed.

And this link:en.wikipedia.org...

Sorry for being vague before!

[edit on 8/24/10 by jennybee35]

[edit on 8/24/10 by jennybee35]

You should really describe what exactly the omen is in your post.

I agree with solasis above. I know about the crash of the Hindenburg, but how does that relate to today's world and our stock market?

reply to post by Solasis


The stinkin article doesn't explain it either, I had to look it up:

Criteria

These criteria are calculated daily using Wall Street Journal figures for consistency. (Other exchanges may be used as well.) Some have been recalibrated by Miekka to reduce statistical noise and make the indicator a more reliable predictor of a future decline.

1.The daily number of NYSE new 52 week highs and the daily number of new 52 week lows are both greater than or equal to 2.8 percent (typically, 84) of the sum of NYSE issues that advance or decline that day (typically, around 3000)[3]. An older version of the indicator used a threshold of 2.5 percent of total issues traded (approximately 80 of 3200 in today's market).
2.The NYSE index is greater in value than it was 50 trading days ago. Originally, this was expressed as a rising 10 week moving average, but the new rule is more relevant to the daily data used to look at new highs and lows.
3.The McClellan Oscillator is negative on the same day.
4.New 52 week highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 week lows (though new 52 week lows may be more than double new highs).
The traditional definition requires each condition to occur on the same day. Once the signal has occurred, it is valid for 30 days, and any additional signals given during the 30-day period should be ignored. During the 30 days, the signal is activated whenever the McClellan Oscillator is negative, but deactivated whenever it is positive.

Wikipedia

Not that it makes much sense to me...



[edit on 8/24/10 by FortAnthem]

Well, I wasn't really gonna' go that into the omen itself, because there are several other threads from just the last few days on that. But, I suppose that if I just came across this thread, I would want more background, also. So here is the Wiki on it:
en.wikipedia.org...

And a summary:

The Hindenburg Omen is a technical analysis pattern that is said to portend a stock market crash. It is named after the Hindenburg disaster of May 6, 1937, during which the German zeppelin Hindenburg was destroyed.

And my attempt at paraphrasing the meaning: The Hindenburg Omen is a whole bunch of "technical factors" used to measure the health of the NYSE, and as a result, the health of the whole stock market. There can be new record highs or lows annually, but both happenings in one year trip the Hindenburg Omen. It is a supposed signal that the market is very unstable and reaching a critical point.

Technical analysis is a con.

When congress was about to investigate goldman sachs the stock market dropped 1000 points then rose right back up...the "boomerang"
congress promptly wimped out...they know who's boss.

Then while everyone was concerned with the Sherrod incident the congress passed the financial reform bill which puts the SEC beyond public scrutiny...

Any one who can't see the market is totally rigged like a sailboat is quite welcome to put their dough there...jeeez

Not to mention after inflation and devaluation the dollars in the stockmarket over the long haul have lost value...
again SCAM

just sayin...

reply to post by Danbones

Any one who can't see the market is totally rigged like a sailboat is quite welcome to put their dough there...jeeez

I agree, I've got some money in the markets from my great-uncle intended for my retirement many years down the road but I would not put my own money in the stock market. I know too much about how 'fake' it is and how corrupt it is.

People who put money in the stock market are playing with fire- they might or might not get burned... It's just a game of chance, really.



[edit on 24-8-2010 by star in a jar]

As an amateur watcher of the markets I have seen of late that a few of the markets have even moved in different directions on any given day up and down. My guess is that some big money moves it anyway they want. Would anyone in their rite mind extensionally invest with what has been going down over the last year? When I say invest I mean the average Joe day trader.

Slowly over the last several months we are hearing more words like depression, double dip recession, and meltdown in the MSM. The economy is on its own now. We will get to see the real economy unless they inject more money of "ours" into it.

reply to post by star in a jar


I agree with you. Playing the market is really worse than going to a casino, in my opinion. At least at the casino, you get free drinks so that you are anesthetized to the reality of throwing your money away!

There was a previous thread on a different incident a week ago, or so. This seems like some serious hiccups in the system. I'd hate to play alarmist here, but I think this is a major sign of things to come and the elite at the top know it, to include our government. I wouldn't quite say we are teetering on collapse, but we sure can see the light at the end of the tunnel.

--airspoon


Edited to add:

I can't believe people aren't flagging this thread. This should be big news, and worrisome to boot. This phenomenon shouldn't be happening, especially at the rate that it is happening this month.

[edit on 24-8-2010 by airspoon]

reply to post by airspoon


Yeah, I read that thread and it worried me, then I came across this article about Miekka and it hit me like a ton of bricks! This cannot be a good thing!

The omen is probably wrong, if it only has a 25% chance of being correct, I wouldn't put all my faith in it. And if it has triggered 4 times now, seems to me like its just crying wolf. What happens after the 17th omen?

Watch what the big boys do, that will be the only tell if the Omen is true.

Goldman Sachs
Berkshire Hathaway
AIG
JP Morgan
UBS

reply to post by tooo many pills


They are kind of slick in how they operate, as to not set off alarm bells. However, you can still see good indicators or clues. Just look at the military scaling way back, troops pulled from Iraq, space-shuttle program ended, commodities going up and land overseas is being purchased by the elites.

You will hardly see large blocks of stock sold off or anything publicly major like that. Instead, we have to look at secondary indicators, such as commodities.

--airspoon

reply to post by airspoon


You are right, they are slick and they know the right time to pull out, but you can follow their moves within the day. For instance, there are plenty of people that just follow Warren Buffett's purchases.

As long as you do your homework on the company you want to invest in, not panic, and not get greedy you will be fine.

Buy into a company such as ORB who is contracted by NASA, or F and C who are very low at the moment. If Government Motors (GM) ever becomes a public stock again invest in them! Pay attention to the trading volumes, aka how many shares are being bought and sold on a given day.

The best indicator for me so far has been when the S&P 500 or NYSE drop a certain company and announce a new member. I buy that new member.

Also, Obama may come on TV and tout about the government granting advanced battery technology firms money to create more jobs and advance America. That is a pretty good indicator. Find the company that is receiving the support and invest when the time is right.

Back in 2009, when the market had bottomed out there was tons of money to be made on just about every stock. In the middle of this year we kind of hit the peak the after the bust, so I suspect we are just leveling out, but you can never be certain because the elite are manipulating the market hardcore.

Honestly, I've never heard of the Hindenburg Omen until a few days ago so I am not sure what to make of it, but I'm not selling yet. The elite want you to sell all your shares to increase the number of shares they can buy and lower the true market price of the stock so they can scoop them up cheap and make big bucks.

[edit on 24-8-2010 by tooo many pills]

Originally posted by xxshadowfaxx
The omen is probably wrong, if it only has a 25% chance of being correct, I wouldn't put all my faith in it. And if it has triggered 4 times now, seems to me like its just crying wolf. What happens after the 17th omen?

Actually when this whole Hindenburg Omen thing started a couple weeks ago the accuracy chance was 70%. Seems they have "downgraded" it. I sent the story to a friend of mine who is an Investment advisor, he hadnt heard of it before, but was very intrigued by the article- responded with a "things that make ya go hmmmm" sent him the WSJ article that came out today waiting for a response

reply to post by inbound


Ooh, inbound, be sure to let me know what your friend has to say. My brother-in-law is a money management/accountant, also, but he thinks I am too "spooky" about the market, so he is always cagey when I ask him about things like this!

reply to post by jennybee35

will do, it'll probably be in the morning. He is by no means a CT, but we've had some pretty good discussions about the economy/markets and he does agree that doom is probably not far off. he claims the only thing that would truly fix our situation is some sort of quantum shift in policy. likes to remind me that we are all just pawns in a game. I see your a louisiana girl, st tammany here

reply to post by inbound


Yeah, you gotta be blind, deaf and dumb to miss the warnings. Richland Parish here!