People in the Gulf need to start keeping on an eye on this!

People in the Gulf need to start keeping on an eye on this!

www.nhc.noaa.gov

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE
EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS WESTWARD TO HISPANIOLA.
ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS
BECOMING BETTER DEFINED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN TIP OF
HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE
FOR

(visit the link for the full news article)

A 60 percent chance for the next tropical storm to develop is fairly strong.

With everything going on in Gulf right now, the tropics are very important to watch.

Normally, anytime a storm starts brewing it should be watched, but with the Oil efforts in the gulf, this is really important.

This one is a lot different from Alex, in that it is heading more directly towards the gulf.

Does anyone know the current water temps in the Gulf right now?

I am not advocating anything else by posting this except that those near the Gulf should really keep a very close eye on this!

www.nhc.noaa.gov
(visit the link for the full news article)

And I just got this off of the Weather Channel:

www.weather.com...

Five waves and a tropical storm
M. Ressler, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 20, 2010 12:15 pm ET
There are five active tropical waves in the Atlantic Basin.

Of the five systems the tropical wave extending from the southeastern Bahamas through the central Caribbean Sea to near the Venezuela coast has the best chance for development.

Currently the lack of a surface low and some wind shear from a trough of low pressure to the northwest of the wave are keeping the wave from developing. There are indications that the trough is beginning to weaken and if that trend continues the environment would become more favorable for development.

The wave is getting better organized and is producing considerable shower and thunderstorm activity in the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and the northern Lesser Antilles. Heavy rainfall is expected in these areas increasing the threat of flooding and mud slides. The threat will heavy rain fall will increase across Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas through midweek.

The system is moving of toward the west-northwest at a slow rate of only 5 to 10 mph. At that rate of speed and direction moisture from the wave could reach southern Florida Friday.

A tropical wave and upper level low are combining to increase shower and thunderstorm activity in the central Gulf of Mexico. This system is not expected to develop as it moves off to the west between 10 and 15 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity should increase over the western Gulf coast through midweek as the system moves onshore.

Another tropical wave in the western Caribbean Sea moves into Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula with heavy showers and thunderstorms. This system should not develop due to its proximity to land.

A fourth wave is heading into the central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Environmental conditions are not favorable for this wave to develop over the next two days. At its current rate of speed the wave could be in the Lesser Antilles Friday or Saturday.

A fifth tropical wave is just coming off of the coast of western Africa.

I am curious as to how long the MSM takes to start over-hyping how many tropical waves are on their way right now.

And I am also curious as to how long it takes people here on ATS to start taking extreme sides on this issue?

Will this be like most other threads currently, filled with those that are completely denying what is going on in the Gulf and downplaying it? Or will this get filled with people who believe the world is going to end?

I HOPE, that this thread serves as a place for people to CORDIALLY discuss both sides, and also to keep up with as much scientific weather data as possible.

Get your tracking maps out for this one and keep them out. We are almost to peak Hurricane season anyway!

reply to post by lasertaglover


I found the temps listed at:

www.nodc.noaa.gov...

That is some warm water people.

Gulf of Mexico Coast: Eastern

Important Notices:
— The recent (near real-time) water temperatures are in degrees Fahrenheit (°F).
— Use the near real-time water temperature data with discretion, because they may contain errors.
— Clicking on the hyperlinked "Recent Temperatures" in the table below will display station information for the location.
— Non-linked temperatures in the monthly columns are average water temperatures based on the historical data collected from given locations.
— To convert to degrees Celsius (°C), see conversion box below the table.
— For regional maps please click on the appropriate map icon from the side menu at left.
— To subscribe to the NODC CWTG RSS feeds please click on the appropriate RSS icon from the side menu at left.
— Please notify us if a temperature value seems out of range.

Last Updated: Tue Jul 20, 20:02:30 UTC 2010 (Time Conversion Table)

Location Recent
Temperatures
(Observation Date and Time) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Blackwater Sound, FL 87.4
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Little Blackwater, FL 85.8
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Long Sound, FL 86.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Highway Creek, FL 86.9
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Duck Key, FL 85.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Trout Cove, FL 86.4
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Butternut Key, FL 85.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Little Madeira, FL 86.2
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Taylor River, FL 86.0
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Bob Allen, FL 87.1
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Whipray Basin, FL 86.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Garfield Bight, FL 87.3
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Peterson Key, FL 86.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Little Rabbit Key, FL 86.0
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Johnson Key, FL 85.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Murray Key, FL 87.8
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Tarpon Bay East, FL 85.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Cane Patch, FL 85.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Gunboat Island, FL 86.7
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Broad River Lower, FL 86.4
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Lostmans River, FL 86.5
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Willy Willy, FL 87.3
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Cannon Bay, FL 87.6
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Watson Place, FL 87.4
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)
Broad River, FL 86.2
(07/20/2010 18:00 UTC)

I'm sure that the people in the Gulf are already keeping an eye on "this".

reply to post by Invisible King


Ahh, probably not, since this is all breaking news, just updated on Weather Channel, The National Hurricane Center, and Weather Underground.

If you or anyone can find some articles on CNN, FOX, or any of the MSM, please feel free to post this here.



[edit on 20-7-2010 by lasertaglover]

I wonder what affect this will have on the oil well cap, if any?

Yeah, CNN has picked up on this as well now:

Tropical weather in the Caribbean gaining steamBy the CNN Wire StaffJuly 20, 2010
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
Hurricane Center: There's a high chance the system will be a tropical cyclone in 48 hours
Tropical cyclones include tropical depressions, tropical storms and hurricanes
The system is already dumping rain on several Caribbean nations
(CNN) -- A "vigorous" tropical weather system in the Eastern Caribbean on Tuesday afternoon has a "high" (60 percent) chance of evolving into a tropical depression or more serious tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said.

Hurricane hunter aircraft were scheduled to fly a data-gathering mission into the low-pressure system Tuesday as it became better defined.

The system is already spawning widespread showers and thunderstorms, and conditions are expected to be more favorable for its development as it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the next day or so, the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. ET report. The hurricane center said at that time, the system was just north of the Dominican Republic.

Forecasters said regardless of development, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos can expect more locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds during the next couple of days.

If the system becomes a tropical depression, it would be the third of the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. If it then reaches sustained winds of 39 mph, it would be named Tropical Storm Bonnie

According to this article, hurricane hunters are scheduled to check out this system Wednesday morning.

by Jason Brewer, Meteorologist
WESH.com
updated 2 minutes ago
Share Print Font: +-ORLANDO, Fla. — WESH.com

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are closely watching a tropical wave northwest of Puerto Rico on Tuesday.

The system, which was deemed 97-L, was moving west-northwest at 10 mph. It has already produced heavy rains of about 8 inches across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, and it could mean some much needed rain for Central Florida beginning on Friday.

The wave is currently positioned to the south of an upper-level low. That system is wrapping some very dry air around it and is also helping to send some wind shear into the tropical wave.

Those two factors have kept the wave from developing so far, but the upper-level low may move toward the southwest over the next couple of days. As that happens, the tropical wave will move into a better environment for strengthening. However, it's still too early to tell if Hispaniola or Cuba will play a role in disrupting the circulation.

Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to fly into the system Wednesday morning.

This is another good site for tracking tropical systems:

www.stormpulse.com...

The tropical wave has become slightly less organized, and as result, the reconnaissance mission has been postponed until Thursday morning.


NWS Tropical Prediction Center National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL 800 am edt wed jul 21 2010

For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Early morning satellite images indicate that the shower activity associated with the tropical wave moving across Hispaniola has become less organized. Consequently, the Air Force reconnaissance mission has been postponed until tomorrow. A tropical depression is not expected to form today but environmental conditions are still favorable for some development as the system moves toward the west-northwest at about 10 mph away from Hispaniola into the Bahamas on Thursday. There is a high chance, 60 percent, of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds will continue to affect the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Hispaniola today and will likely spread over the Turks and Caicos Islands, and the Bahamas during the next couple of days. The heavy rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in mountainous areas.

Tropical wave moving toward Florida
Kevin Roth, Lead Meteorologist, The Weather Channel
Jul. 21, 2010 5:50 am ET
The tropical wave near Haiti and the Dominican Republic has not gotten any better organized over the past 12 hours. There is no circulation at the surface and it remains in a sheared environment caused by a trough and upper level low to its northwest and north.

As long as the shearing environment is present any development of the system would be slow. However, the shear is forecast to weaken later today and Thursday. If that occurs and a low forms at the surface the system could be upgraded to a tropical depression.

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT WED JUL 21 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND THE EFFECTS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN OF
HISPANIOLA HAVE DISRUPTED THE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE THIS
MORNING. THE AXIS OF THE WAVE IS APPROACHING THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS
EXTENDING EASTWARD FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER THE BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE
WAVE MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THE WAVE IS
CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED
TODAY...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS COULD BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE ON
THURSDAY. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
NNNN

Mate,

I have lived on the Gulf Coast all my life, trust me we do keep an eye on what is happening in the Gulf. If nothing else, just so when we know what the streets will be like in the morning.

R

BTW, It's raining here, AGAIN!

reply to post by hoagy1199


I remember when I was stationed at Fort Polk, LA, many miles inland, that it would rain for what seemed like days on end.

What I am worried about here, is that a lot of the early prediction models are showing this tropical feature going right over the region of the oil spill.

That could make knowing what the 'next morning' is like, a little bit more important this time.

That's why I invite anyone to post any new update of this storm on here as soon as they see something. Thanks

reply to post by lasertaglover


I meant no offense mate,appreciate you pointing it out. I'm just in a funky mood today, Sorry. I'll keep an eye on it though, as always. Off topic, Thanks for the Service.! Ft. Polk isn't really a graden spot, but then neither is Houston.

Take care and stay dry.
R

reply to post by hoagy1199


Hey bud, I'm sorry if you think I took offense in anyway. I am just focused on the potential and direction of this storm. I have family that live in Panama City, and I worry about them.

And yeah, Ft. Polf is an interesting place. In all honesty, the base was not too bad. However, Leesville, the town around it, sucked really, really bad when I was stationed there. Even though I did meet one lady there who had all of her teeth!

Are you in the service?

reply to post by lasertaglover


Not me, Dad was in Vietnam, SEALS. I never got to meet him formally. I just work with animals and try to keep my head above water. My best hopes and prayes to your family should this turn into anything. FL gets more than their fair share of storms but usually further south/east.
R

reply to post by hoagy1199


And we will keep our fingers crossed for you and yours as well.