posted on Jun, 16 2004 @ 07:39 PM
WEATHER
AS A FORCE MULTIPLIER: OWNING THE WEATHER IN 2025
MILITARY APPLICATIONS OF WEATHER MODIFICATION
Chapter
5 - Investigation Recommendations
To fully appreciate
the development of the specific operational capabilities weather-modification
could deliver to the war fighter, we must examine and understand
their relationship to associated core competencies and the development
of their requisite technologies. Figure 5-1 combines the specific
operational capabilities of Table 1 into six core capabilities and
depicts their relative importance over time. For example, fog and
cloud modification are currently important and will remain so for
some time to come to conceal our assets from surveillance or improve
landing visibility at airfields. However, as surveillance assets
become less optically dependent and aircraft achieve a truly global
all-weather landing capability, fog and cloud modification applications
become less important.
In contrast,
artificial weather technologies do not currently exist. But as they
are developed, the importance of their potential applications rises
rapidly. For example, the anticipated proliferation of surveillance
technologies in the future will make the ability to deny surveillance
increasingly valuable. In such an environment, clouds made of smart
particles such as described in chapter 4 could provide a premium
capability.
Figure 5-1. A Core Competency Road Map to Weather Modification
in 2025
FIGURE 5-1 LEGEND
PM
Precipitation Modification
(F&C)M
Fog and Cloud Modification
SM
Storm Modification
CW
Counter Weather
SWM
Space-weather Modification
AW
Artificial Weather
Even today's
most technologically advanced militaries would usually prefer to
fight in clear weather and blue skies. But as war-fighting technologies
proliferate, the side with the technological advantage will prefer
to fight in weather that gives them an edge. The US Army has already
alluded to this approach in their concept of "owning the weather."53
Accordingly, storm modification will become more valuable over time.
The importance of precipitation modification is also likely to increase
as usable water sources become more scarce in volatile parts of
the world.
As more countries
pursue, develop, and exploit increasing types and degrees of weather-modification
technologies, we must be able to detect their efforts and counter
their activities when necessary. As depicted, the technologies and
capabilities associated with such a counter weather role will become
increasingly important.
The importance
of space weather-modification will grow with time. Its rise will
be more rapid at first as the technologies it can best support or
negate proliferate at their fastest rates. Later, as those technologies
mature or become obsolete, the importance of space weather-modification
will continue to rise but not as rapidly.
To achieve
the core capabilities depicted in figure 5-1, the necessary technologies
and systems might be developed according to the process depicted
in figure 5-2. This figure illustrates the systems development timing
and sequence necessary to realize a weather-modification capability
for the battlespace by 2025. The horizontal axis represents time.
The vertical axis indicates the degree to which a given technology
will be applied toward weather-modification. As the primary users,
the military will be the main developer for the technologies designated
with an asterisk. The civil sector will be the main source for the
remaining technologies.
Figure 5-1. A Core Competency Road Map to Weather Modification
in 2025
FIGURE 5-1 LEGEND
ADV
Aerospace Delivery Vehicle
DE
Directed Energy
AIM
Artificial Ionospheric Mirrors
GWN
Global Weather Network
CHEM
Chemicals
SC
Smart Clouds (nanotechnology)
COMM
Communications
SENSORS
Sensors
COMP MOD
Computer Modeling
* Technologies
to be developed by DOD
WFSE
Weather Force Support Element
Conclusions
The world's
finite resources and continued needs will drive the desire to protect
people and property and more efficiently use our crop lands, forests,
and range lands. The ability to modify the weather may be desirable
both for economic and defense reasons. The global weather system
has been described as a series of spheres or bubbles. Pushing down
on one causes another to pop up. We need to know when another power
"pushes" on a sphere in their region, and how that will affect either
our own territory or areas of economic and political interest to
the US.
Efforts are
already under way to create more comprehensive weather models primarily
to improve forecasts, but researchers are also trying to influence
the results of these models by adding small amounts of energy at
just the right time and space. These programs are extremely limited
at the moment and are not yet validated, but there is great potential
to improve them in the next 30 years.
The lessons
of history indicate a real weather-modification capability will
eventually exist despite the risk. The drive exists. People have
always wanted to control the weather and their desire will compel
them to collectively and continuously pursue their goal. The motivation
exists. The potential benefits and power are extremely lucrative
and alluring for those who have the resources to develop it. This
combination of drive, motivation, and resources will eventually
produce the technology. History also teaches that we cannot afford
to be without a weather-modification capability once the technology
is developed and used by others. Even if we have no intention of
using it, others will. To call upon the atomic weapon analogy again,
we need to be able to deter or counter their capability with our
own. Therefore, the weather and intelligence communities must keep
abreast of the actions of others.
As the preceding
chapters have shown, weather-modification is a force multiplier
with tremendous power that could be exploited across the full spectrum
of war-fighting environments. From enhancing friendly operations
or disrupting those of the enemy via small-scale tailoring of natural
weather patterns to complete dominance of global communications
and counter-space control, weather-modification offers the war fighter
a wide-range of possible options to defeat or coerce an adversary.
But, while offensive weather-modification efforts would certainly
be undertaken by US forces with great caution and trepidation, it
is clear that we cannot afford to allow an adversary to obtain an
exclusive weather-modification capability.
Background
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2 - Page 3 - Page
4 - Page 5 - Appendix