Computer model predicts the spread of the BP oil spill after one year

With oil from BP’s Deepwater Horizon oil rig continuing to spew into the Gulf of Mexico researchers from the School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology (SOEST) at the University of Hawaii at Manoa have produced an animated computer simulation that shows the potential spread of the oil over a period of 360 days from when the spill started. To calculate the particle dispersal the researchers used ocean flow data from simulations conducted with the high-resolution Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator (OFES).

The animation shows the calculated surface particle concentrations for grid boxes measuring roughly 10km by 10km in size and assumes an estimated flow of oil from the Deepwater Horizon of 50,000 barrels per day over a 150-day period. The simulation also assumes the spill is successfully capped by September 17, 2010.

The animation suggests that the coastlines near the Carolinas, Georgia, and Northern Florida could see the effects of the oil spill as early as October 2010 and that the main branch of the subtropical gyre (a ringlike system of ocean currents that rotate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere) is likely to transport the oil film towards Europe, although strongly diluted.

source

Even though the researchers state that the computed surface concentrations may be overestimated, the magnitude of this oil spill is going to be enormous. In the long-term, this is gonna be way more catastrophic than I, for one, expected.







[edit on 8-7-2010 by Mdv2]

Yikes. Double yikes. We're in for a great big "unknown" as far as how much environmental damage this is going to cause. I'd still like to see more computer models. But from the looks of this one.... yikes.

And I have my own theories about the spill related to Revelation 9. If you're into that kind of thing...
Seas turning to blood and the like...

[edit on 7/8/2010 by this_is_who_we_are]

[edit on 7/8/2010 by this_is_who_we_are]

Ok do we have our welcoming flags up for the down-playing ATSers here? I wonder what can be said to do so in this case... the worst case scenario is slowly becoming reality.. 50000 barrels is a very low estimate and the projected end of the spill at sept 17th is also still up for debate.

Another thing not spoken of is the impact this might have on the mainland. what would that much oil in that much water do with rain?

My guess is that within 3 years even england will be feeling the effects of this spill..

reply to post by Mdv2


and theres the first one admitting he was WRONG
ty
good job on that and the thread as well
and i think it will be worse
u really believe they will cap it by august,or the astimates to be correct as in high enough,well that would be a first lmao
i believe that when i see it,umm and not on a bp live feed


[edit on 8-7-2010 by icecold7]

reply to post by icecold7


I think it will be capped in August. But the five months worth of spewing oil complicated by toxic dispersant is the big unknown. The question isn't will the environment suffer, the question is to what degree. All we can do now is speculate. Although I stated that what we have now is a big unknown, I do, however, expect a worst case scenario. That's my speculation for the time being.

edit: Oh, and I wasn't being sarcastic when speaking of Revelation 9. I think it describes our current situation.

[edit on 7/8/2010 by this_is_who_we_are]

reply to post by this_is_who_we_are

alright thanks 4 the rep
rev 9
when did u talk about that??
as i mentioned in my earlir threads i think thats were we heading ,without dragging the bible into it,
even do i was readin rev b4 all this happened oil spill etc
cuz i thought theres were we were at
ev 9 is sea turning black wright?
www.youtube.com.../f/15/QPnJT5DQikU

reply to post by icecold7


I have a thread going explaining my thoughts:

BP spill and Revelation 9..."and their power was to hurt men five months."
www.abovetopsecret.com...

Just FYI, not trying to gain readership, hijack thread, spam etc...

edit: your link is broken. It links to a music video or song or something.

[edit on 7/8/2010 by this_is_who_we_are]

I really can not see how anyone at this point can deny that this oil leak is going to make huge impacts felt for decades. We have had signs of oil washing ashore in Florida, we now are seeing signs of oil in Texas. Considering the gulf stream, to my understanding, moves East and around Florida, signs of oil showing up in Texas tells me that the Gulf is literally filling up like a fish bowl with oil. We are screwed. I really hope Corporate America is satisfied with themselves now. They are literally destroying a planet in the name of profit. It reminds me of an old quote that from my understanding comes from the Native American Indian Cree Nation which says, "Only when the last tree has died, the last river has been poisoned and the last fish has been caught, will we realize that we cannot eat money."

Yeah, "Drill baby Drill"... I submit that we change that slogan to "Go (snip) yourselves!"

[edit on 8-7-2010 by MrWendal]

There are rules and regulations against using shorthand text message words in our posts...
So can we start abiding by them, please?
You're supposed to read the T&C before you sign up.
This is not a text messaging forum and I am no moderator.
But I cant read when "ur tipn lke ths". L8R.
Let's use all the keys on our keyboards ok?

Back to the OP.
Who's to say they will ever fix this leak?
The most insane thing to think about is that fact that this 'could' ruin 1/3 of the water on the planet just by the natural circulation of ocean currents globally.

Think about the freshwater supply, also.
Once the light oils permeate the atmosphere and rain down on the earth, the results could be more than catastrophic.

But, we won't know for a while.
It might not be that bad.

When there's an administration #ell-bent on passing 'Cap and Tax' because of an oil leak, that they are dragging their feet on...
Or quoted as saying to take advantage of every crisis...
Let's add 2+2 to see what they're trying to accomplish.

Can you say: 'Destroy America'?
What remains people?....what is left to accomplish?
Take down the borders?
Oh wait, theyre workin on that too.









[edit on 8-7-2010 by havok]

this only shows what it would be like if the well continued to leak 150 days total, we are on day 80 now. It could still leak well over 150 day and imagine twice as much oil in that graphic shown in the op! or even 3 times as much!

Just a thought , I in no way am an expert in plugging underwater oil leaks , but couldn't they have pumped the holes full of cement that dries underwater mixed in such a way that it would harden when it came in contact with moisture or salt?

I mean , damn. Obama's shaping up to be even worse than bush or carter. He turns incompetence into a four letter word , of the nasty kind. Nobody in his damn , admin is even trying.

Originally posted by De La Valletta
Just a thought , I in no way am an expert in plugging underwater oil leaks , but couldn't they have pumped the holes full of cement that dries underwater mixed in such a way that it would harden when it came in contact with moisture or salt?

I'm surprised people are still suggesting this

www.abovetopsecret.com...

I mean , damn. Obama's shaping up to be even worse than bush or carter. He turns incompetence into a four letter word , of the nasty kind. Nobody in his damn , admin is even trying.

What does this second paragraph have to do with the topic? Or are you one of those folks who think this is "Obama's Katrina" despite the only similarity being the geography?

Have a great day!

reply to post by justadood

An excerpt from the original post of the thread you linked me too

First of all the method used in this particular top kill made no sense, did not follow the standard operating procedure used to kill many other wells and in fact for the most part was completely contrary to the procedure which would have given it any real chance of working.

Incompetence , at all levels where they get paid too much money not to be. I stand by my second paragraph.

Since plugging it has been tried and failed , what else can be done , we just let it flow and poison us and future generations both human and flora/fauna of the ocean? Any solutions would be welcome.

Yes, but you didnt offer an informed, educated solution, did you?

Why dont they just plug the leak with toothpaste?

Truly wild. Thanks for sharing.

reply to post by justadood

I wasn't trying to be condescending in my last post and as I said in my first post , I am no expert on plugging under water oil spills. I'd just like to see something done about this spill and since I don't have the answer hopefully someone out there does.