The Gulf Gives Birth to Hurricane Alex (Weekend Headlines June 26th 2010)

reply to post by darkelf


For the past week I have been talking to several members here about the potential toxic rain threat.

Since you have already seen the Governments response with the spill much less the head chief saying "its safe to eat the seafood" knowing that corexit is pushing the oil under the surface (out of site out of mind)...........Do I want to risk my family in waiting for the government to do the "right" thing and tell the citizens the truth about the health concerns?

The storm out in the caribbean is the first threat thus far that could push toxic chemicals up inland………..Is Alex it……….probably not as its downgraded to 20% chance of forming a tropical depression as now………but what about next week or next month when there is 30% more oil out in the gulf along with dispersants?

I am not going to place my bet on BP or the Government in telling me that there is a “real” danger as far as toxic rain being blown inland…..




[edit on 22-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

Originally posted by Cloudsinthesky
Stifled reports from across the Gulf States region

Stifled reports? I've seen BP stifle journalists... but I have not seen media stifle reports....

Don’t be fooled by the media and the Government when Alex only turns out to be a category I or II and even if it just stays a tropical depression. The results will be the same, a toxic rain being dumped inland.

Actually all of the folks I've seen interviewed on this say that a Hurricane might be the best thing for the dilution of these things.

Being a native floridian I've been following hurricanes for the past 30 years.

I just am not a fan of people predicting hurricane paths.

There is so much that can happen with a hurricane. That's why there is the 1 2 3 mariners rule. at 24, 48 and 72 hours you can have a variance of 100, 200 and 300 nautical miles that a hurricane can change direction.

I've seen hurricane do some strange stuff before. unpredictable.

reply to post by HunkaHunka

Actually all of the folks I've seen interviewed on this say that a Hurricane might be the best thing for the dilution of these things.

Rough waters, heavy rain, and lightning would be a good thing to speed up decomposition of the surface oil. There is no doubt that it will have some "good" effects.

But, the bad effects will be worse than the good.

It will likely cause rough seas that will push the oil inland to the riverways, ports, harbors, and marshes.

It will likely take up some of the chemicals, gases, and oils into the rain and spread it far inland.

And, if you read any of the 2 or 3 Methane related threads, you will see the potential for a devasting release of all the dissolved gasses in the sea water.

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

You are spreading fear and ignorance.
I checked my sources at NOAA just now and there is nothing developed or nearly developed as a tropical storm level.
Go back to your cave...

reply to post by grey580


Its not the hurricane I am worried about........Its the rain bands that make up the hurricane......How big were the rain bans on Katrina, Rita and others.......It does not matter where the hurrican hits......

[edit on 22-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

[edit on 22-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

Originally posted by Granite
reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

 

You are spreading fear and ignorance.
I checked my sources at NOAA just now and there is nothing developed or nearly developed as a tropical storm level.
Go back to your cave...

Read through the thread! There is a system, it is confirmed at all sources, it may or may not become a tropical system, some sources give it a 30 or 40% chance, the system weakened and became a little less organized today, but the conditions are right for it to develop.

On a second note, it is a hypothetical situation that will certainly unfold at some point this summer, so the discussion is pertinent whether this system develops or not.

Now, run along back to your so-called sources, and check a little better, because everybody else found it with no problem!

I suspect a oil-bloody animal smoothy on the rocks will be the drink of the day

Originally posted by getreadyalready

Originally posted by Granite
reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

 

You are spreading fear and ignorance.
I checked my sources at NOAA just now and there is nothing developed or nearly developed as a tropical storm level.
Go back to your cave...

Now, run along back to your so-called sources, and check a little better, because everybody else found it with no problem!

Source
A mod should force the title of this thread to be changed to be in-line with the OP which is a small chance of occuring. Less than 20% according the experts.
[edit on 22-6-2010 by Granite]

[edit on 22-6-2010 by Granite]

[edit on 22-6-2010 by Granite]

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


why would you worry about the rain bands? Most of that water is brought with the hurricane as it gains strength.

I'd worry more about the tidal surge taht could bring that oily water inland.
Or the high speed winds that can pick up the floating oil and fling it inland also.

reply to post by grey580


Maybe this image of Katrina as it arrives on shore will help you understand why the rain bands............




[edit on 22-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

reply to post by Granite


www.nhc.noaa.gov...

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUN 22 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME LESS
ORGANIZED TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE WILL LIKELY SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...HAITI...JAMAICA...AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER...
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS IT
MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

Or

www.wunderground.com...

Wind: 30 MPH — Location: 15.5 74.4W — Movement: W
This area of disturbed weather has the potential for tropical development.

Map of what is now considered a Low Pressure System with proposed tracks into the Gulf. Currently 30mph winds.
www.wunderground.com...




[edit on 22-6-2010 by getreadyalready]

[edit on 22-6-2010 by getreadyalready]

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky


I've lived through hurricane andrew plus all the other hurricanes to come through florida since 72. the rain may or may not be a worry. depending on how fast or slow the hurricane is traveling.

in a hurricane storm surge and wind are what do damage. Not the rains.

www.photolib.noaa.gov...

what do you think the rain bands are going to do exactly?

reply to post by getreadyalready


Please quote me the exact text where it says on the NHC website where it says there's a hurricane heading to the gulf please.

You can't predict where a hurricane is going that far out with any certainty.

reply to post by grey580


I'm sure they mean the rain bands combined with the toxic soup. The hurricane is going to stir up and break down the surface oil of the water, which is a good thing, but it will also pick up those smaller particles of Oil, Gas, and Chemical Dispersant and carry it far inland in the rain bands.

In other words, people in Memphis or Atlanta or Dallas may not be too concerned about the oil leak, but they may get some of the toxic rain from a Tropical system.

reply to post by grey580


Follow the second link, there is a map with all the possible computer models.

Yes, you are correct, it is difficult to predict, but they use about 10 different models, and then they map out an average proposed path, and then they make it wider and wider the further out their prediction goes. The current map has every single model putting it in the Gulf, but then it could flare off in any direction. It is VERY likely (90% +) that it will get into the Gulf, and it will probably head West, which means the NE Quadrant will be in the oil.

Now, nobody is saying it will definitely be a Hurricane, or even a named storm. Right now it is a disorganized band of Thunderstorms with a Low Pressure system associated with it, but the conditions are good for it to develop further.

Read the Links!

reply to post by grey580


INVEST 93 (Current Name for storm)

floridaweatherinfo.wordpress.com...

Your Latest Florida Weather Information

Hi everybody. We are now watching invest 93 with care. Invest 93 is now a broad area of cloudiness that is beginning to show some signs of development. Right now, the upper level winds are not really favorable for development but that is expected to change over the next couple of days. A depression could form in another day or two. Initially, the model runs were keeping the invest well to our south but the new models are showing more of a course east of the Bahamas. Because of this model shift, it is definitely worth watching. Here are the latest model runs. A recon will investigate the area tomorrow, if necessary.
Starting Sunday, the rain chances for East Central Florida are going to be on the increase for the next several days with the rain chances going up to 50%.
I will keep you posted with the recon information if a plane is indeed dispatched to the system.

www.hardcoreweather.com...

www.cancuncare.com...

www.examiner.com...

www.weatherusa.net...



www.climatepatrol.com...

reply to post by getreadyalready


Accuweather (one of my favorites):
forums.accuweather.com...


www.storm2k.org...

Or, from my near and dear Florida State University!
moe.met.fsu.edu...

Can we at least put the "Existence" of said storm to bed now, and talk about the implications of the storm?

THE THEORY OF HURRICANES
KERRY A. EMANUEL

Some Aspects of Hurricane Inner-Core Dynamics and Energetics

KERRY A. EMANUEL

Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts

(Manuscript received 26 December 1995, in final form 18 October 1996)

ABSTRACT

The energy cycle of the mature hurricane resides in the secondary circulation that passes through the storm’s eyewall. By equating the generation of energy in this cycle to boundary layer dissipation, an upper bound on wind speed is derived.

This bound depends on the degree of thermodynamic disequilibrium between the tropical ocean and atmosphere, on the difference between sea surface and outflow absolute temperatures, and also on the ratio between the enthalpy exchange and surface drag coefficients.

Such a bound proves to be an excellent predictor of maximum wind speeds in two different axisymmetric numerical models and does not appear to
depend on the existence of the hurricane eye.

But further consideration of the detailed dynamics of the eye and eyewall show that the intensification of hurricanes is accelerated by feedbacks associated with a component of eye subsidence forced by radial turbulent diffusion of momentum.

This radial momentum diffusion is an inevitable by-product of the strong frontogenesis that the author here shows to be a fundamental characteristic of flow in the eyewall.

Thus, while the upper bound on hurricane wind speed is independent of the eye dynamics, the intensification of hurricanes is indirectly accelerated by turbulent stresses that occur in the eye and eyewall.

Read more at the link...

[edit on 6/22/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by 7even7eas
Tampa FL here.

if it comes well ride it out like we always do.

oil or no oil.

Same here! Hopefully not though. Especially since Tampa has been protected by a forcefield for some time.

[edit on 6/22/2010 by AndrewTB]