The Gulf Gives Birth to Hurricane Alex (Weekend Headlines June 26th 2010)

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

I am disappointed by posts here that are mostly speculation without referencing the most authoritative sources. In this case.

reply to post by CharlesMartel


Even that track is an estimated guess, especially at the 5 day mark. Don't be surprised to see that circle at the end sway to the east and the west as models change with time. Granted, I recognize the authority of the NHC, however it would be reckless to state that a 5 day track that is still in the GOMEX is the final word.

OK here's some OFFICIAL stuff...

www.fnmoc.navy.mil



Tropical Depression ONE Forecast Discussion
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

GFS Ensemble Computer Model Hurricane Forecasts

One out of a dozen show it NOT heading for the US coast...

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

reply to post by CharlesMartel


Geezzz I try to go out by the pool while its still "clean" and cook some fresh vegies out of the garden........

The only reason I posted that map is it gave a "time line" of where the system will be located...........that did not mean it would take that track.....I never said "this is the track" ......Why does everything have to be so black and white?

It's just all so tropically depressing....

2nd line

Tropical Depression Alex (Atlantic Ocean)
www.nasa.gov...

06.25.2010
Expecting Alex in the Caribbean

Forecasters on June 25 had given System 93L in the western Caribbean an 80 percent chance of developing into Tropical Depression Alex, and weekends seem to always birth tropical depressions. The GOES-13 satellite captured a visible image of both System 93L and a second low east of the Leeward Islands that has a much lesser chance of development this weekend.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite called GOES-13 captured a visible image of System 93L and the second area of cloudiness and showers east of the Leewards in a satellite image on June 25 at 14:45 UTC (10:45 a.m. EDT). The satellite image was created by NASA's GOES Project, located at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. GOES-13 is operated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.





Tropical Depression ONE Public Advisory

000
WTNT31 KNHC 260233
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
1100 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 84.4W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM ESE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.4 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION WILL APPROACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA LATE
SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...200 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

This weekend I will be spending it with our daughter for the fact that she plays on a traveling softball team…….I can only hope there will be many more weekends to come…….but I have a sick feeling about such weekends.

Tomorrow morning I will turn the helm of this thread over for the weekend to a solid ATS contributor and good friend Hx3………..Many may recognize his video feeds that many ATS members use to watch the oil coming from the bop……..

realitycheck.no-ip.info...

No doubt he will keep the thread updated with the latest………

FNMOC Satellite Data Tropical Cyclone Page
01L.ONE 26 JUN 2010 0245Z (full size: 277 KB) dimension w=1024, h=1024


[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

WOW!! That image is horrific……….If (and I say if) that circular motion that appears to be forming does indeed intensify, Alex could become a monster……with rain bands extending like Katina’s...........Not good!!

reply to post by Cloudsinthesky

That image looks like it could fill the GOM...not good...

We'll have to see how it condenses as it winds up though...



[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

This Tropical System is NOT Alex...it 's named Tropical Depression #1 so calling it Alex is not correct....until it is officially named Alex then the name should be used...

Until then TD 1 should be used not to mislead people

reply to post by Goradd

What's a day or two difference going to make in the grand schemes of things?

Forget yer Midol today?

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Originally posted by Hx3_1963
reply to post by Goradd

 

What's a day or two difference going to make in the grand schemes of things?

For get yer Midol today?

[edit on 6/25/2010 by Hx3_1963]

man thats funny!!! Lets just call it Allison... that way not to confuse anyone!

Here's a link to very latest forecast map from the National Hurricane Center.
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

As you can see, it is not expected to curve far enough northward to impact
the Louisiana coast, or points eastward where the oil slick is located.

It's gets me how there are so many people who want so badly to see
worse-case scenarios. Not only with this oil disaster, but with every
challenge faced by mankind. The more I visit ATS, the stronger is my
belief in what the Bible says about the mental deterioration of mankind
as the end of the world (as we know it) approaches. Its kind of scary
to see it happening in real-time before our very eyes. -cwm

What is with all the attacks in this thread? The OP was simply speculating about the possibility of a the oil dister becoming worse if in fact the seasons first hurricane impacts the GOM.

As it turns out, the odds are Alex will hit the Gulf! Instead of trying to discredit Clouds for some fear mongerer, we should all be thanking him for his astute intuition! The guy knows what he is talking about! As always he backs up what he says with sound facts!

So if you have something of value to add, please do so! Otherwise quit your bitchin about the name of the storm, and every other menial piece of info.

Great job Clouds! Thanks for the heads up!

Pax

Originally posted by carewemustIt's gets me how there are so many people who want so badly to see
worse-case scenarios.

Actually, I live in New Orleans and am very concerned, definitely don't want this thing coming anywhere near here, or anywhere else.

But common sense should tell you that 5 day projections of a system are not going to be dead on accurate. Living my entire life here, you never took those projections as Gospel. There are wishcasters, but then there are also downcasters.

[edit on 26-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

reply to post by Goradd


As the thread title states.......Headline News for the weekend of 6/26/2010..........It is official Alex is born.............

Not too sure why your posting such remarks of technicallity of when this storm transitioned from ONE to Alex?

The main concern in your post should be about what will the affects be with this toxic soup.............

It seem as if you may have some knowledge of hurricanes...........So please give us your take on what you think will happen if (theres my if) it crosses over the spill...............not in aspects of the storm surge.....

[edit on 26-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]

Tropical Storm ALEX
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

01L.ALEX 26 JUN 2010 1315Z



twitter.com...
Hurricane hunter aircraft will take off from Biloxi, MS around 10am ET, arriving at TS Alex by 2pm ET.

Tropical Storm ALEX Forecast/Advisory
www.nhc.noaa.gov...

000
WTNT21 KNHC 260847
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
0900 UTC SAT JUN 26 2010

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF BELIZE AND THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN
* THE ISLANDS OF ROATAN...GUANAJA...AND UTILA IN HONDURAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE BORDER OF
HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 84.9W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 84.9W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 45NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 84.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

MIAMI, June 26, 2010
Tropical Storm Alex Eyed Near Gulf Waters
www.cbsnews.com...

(AP) Last Updated 7:07 a.m. ET

Tropical storm Alex formed in the Western Caribbean Saturday, and forecasters said it was unclear if it would hit the massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center in Miami said early Saturday that the storm has maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph. Most storm prediction models show Alex traveling over the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico over the weekend, but they no longer have it going across the oil spill once it reaches the Gulf, hurricane forecaster Jack Bevens said.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of Belize and the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, which separates the Caribbean Sea from the Gulf of Mexico.

It's too early to tell if the storm will hit the northeastern part of the Gulf, where the spill has spread over the past 10 weeks, Bevens said. While the current forecast track has the storm shifting away from the spill, Bevens noted that could change.

[edit on 6/26/2010 by Hx3_1963]

Well I see someone decided to take my thread and make it there own on another forum lol...........

"Here is the posting:
The Gulf Gives Birth to Hurricane Alex (Weekend Headlines June 26th 2010)Posted by Ari on June 22, 2010 at 8:00pm"

mountzion144.ning.com... groupId=2127676%3AGroup%3A167192

(just scroll up a little)

The Source OV Illumination forum..................

Ari will probably now get a book deal on the psychic network.......

I feel so illuminated now!!

[edit on 26-6-2010 by Cloudsinthesky]