Expert predicts 450 ton BOP will collapse well - Gusher Unstoppable?

Bloggers can post all kinds of conjecture, and normally most such comments should be taken with a grain of salt. However, when a knowledgeable expert posts a rant, that gets picked up and published by a journalist, we should take notice.

After reading the article at this source:

motherjones.com...

I deemed this blogger's rant worthy of its own thread here at ATS. Also, I am worried that BP might payoff someone to make that source article 'disappear', so I copied the blog comments from the article to this post, under that the "fair use" legal doctrine (Title 17 U.S.C.).





Comments that were originally posted at the Oil Drum website:

(PART #1)

"All the actions and few tid bits of information all lead to one inescapable conclusion. The well pipes below the sea floor are broken and leaking. Now you have some real data of how BP's actions are evidence of that, as well as some murky statement from "BP officials" confirming the same.

"To those of us outside the real inside loop, yet still fairly knowledgeable, [the failure of Top Kill] was a major confirmation of what many feared. That the system below the sea floor has serious failures of varying magnitude in the complicated chain, and it is breaking down and it will continue to.

"What does this mean?

"It means they will never cap the gusher after the wellhead. They cannot...the more they try and restrict the oil gushing out the bop?...the more it will transfer to the leaks below. Just like a leaky garden hose with a nozzle on it. When you open up the nozzle?...it doesn't leak so bad, you close the nozzle?...it leaks real bad, same dynamics. It is why they sawed the riser off...or tried to anyway...but they clipped it off, to relieve pressure on the leaks "down hole". I'm sure there was a bit of panic time after they crimp/pinched off the large riser pipe and the Diamond wire saw got stuck and failed...because that crimp diverted pressure and flow to the rupture down below.

"Contrary to what most of us would think as logical to stop the oil mess, actually opening up the gushing well and making it gush more became direction BP took after confirming that there was a leak. In fact if you note their actions, that should become clear. They have shifted from stopping or restricting the gusher to opening it up and catching it. This only makes sense if they want to relieve pressure at the leak hidden down below the seabed.....and that sort of leak is one of the most dangerous and potentially damaging kind of leak there could be. It is also inaccessible which compounds our problems. There is no way to stop that leak from above, all they can do is relieve the pressure on it and the only way to do that right now is to open up the nozzle above and gush more oil into the gulf and hopefully catch it, which they have done, they just neglected to tell us why, gee thanks.

"A down hole leak is dangerous and damaging for several reasons. There will be erosion throughout the entire beat up, beat on and beat down remainder of the "system" including that inaccessible leak. The same erosion I spoke about in the first post is still present and has never stopped, cannot be stopped, is impossible to stop and will always be present in and acting on anything that is left which has crude oil "Product" rushing through it. There are abrasives still present, swirling flow will create hot spots of wear and this erosion is relentless and will always be present until eventually it wears away enough material to break it's way out. It will slowly eat the bop away especially at the now pinched off riser head and it will flow more and more. Perhaps BP can outrun or keep up with that out flow with various suckage methods for a period of time, but eventually the well will win that race, just how long that race will be?...no one really knows....However now?...there are other problems that a down hole leak will and must produce that will compound this already bad situation.

"This down hole leak will undermine the foundation of the seabed in and around the well area. It also weakens the only thing holding up the massive Blow Out Preventer's immense bulk of 450 tons. In fact?...we are beginning to the results of the well's total integrity beginning to fail due to the undermining being caused by the leaking well bore.

"The first layer of the sea floor in the gulf is mostly lose material of sand and silt. It doesn't hold up anything and isn't meant to, what holds the entire subsea system of the Bop in place is the well itself... The well's piping in comparison is actually very much smaller than the Blow Out Preventer and strong as it may be, it relies on some support from the seabed to function and not literally fall over...and it is now showing signs of doing just that....falling over...

"What is likely to happen now?

"Well...none of what is likely to happen is good, in fact...it's about as bad as it gets. I am convinced the erosion and compromising of the entire system is accelerating and attacking more key structural areas of the well, the blow out preventer and surrounding strata holding it all up and together. This is evidenced by the tilt of the blow out preventer and the erosion which has exposed the well head connection. What eventually will happen is that the blow out preventer will literally tip over if they do not run supports to it as the currents push on it. I suspect they will run those supports as cables tied to anchors very soon, if they don't, they are inviting disaster that much sooner.

"Eventually even that will be futile as the well casings cannot support the weight of the massive system above with out the cement bond to the earth and that bond is being eroded away. When enough is eroded away the casings will buckle and the BOP will collapse the well. If and when you begin to see oil and gas coming up around the well area from under the BOP? or the area around the well head connection and casing sinking more and more rapidly? ...it won't be too long after that the entire system fails. BP must be aware of this, they are mapping the sea floor sonically and that is not a mere exercise. Our Gov't must be well aware too, they just are not telling us.

(PART #2 OF 2)

"All of these things lead to only one place, a fully wide open well bore directly to the oil deposit...after that, it goes into the realm of "the worst things you can think of" The well may come completely apart as the inner liners fail. There is still a very long drill string in the well, that could literally come flying out...as I said...all the worst things you can think of are a possibility, but the very least damaging outcome as bad as it is, is that we are stuck with a wide open gusher blowing out 150,000 barrels a day of raw oil or more. There isn't any "cap dome" or any other suck fixer device on earth that exists or could be built that will stop it from gushing out and doing more and more damage to the gulf. While at the same time also doing more damage to the well, making the chance of halting it with a kill from the bottom up less and less likely to work, which as it stands now?....is the only real chance we have left to stop it all.

"It's a race now...a race to drill the relief wells and take our last chance at killing this monster before the whole weakened, wore out, blown out, leaking and failing system gives up it's last gasp in a horrific crescendo.

"We are not even 2 months into it, barely half way by even optimistic estimates. The damage done by the leaked oil now is virtually immeasurable already and it will not get better, it can only get worse. No matter how much they can collect, there will still be thousands and thousands of gallons leaking out every minute, every hour of every day. We have 2 months left before the relief wells are even near in position and set up to take a kill shot and that is being optimistic as I said.

"Over the next 2 months the mechanical situation also cannot improve, it can only get worse, getting better is an impossibility. While they may make some gains on collecting the leaked oil, the structural situation cannot heal itself. It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well."

[end of bloggers rant picked up by the article.]

The worst part of this is that the worse it seems to get, the more BP restricts access to the site, to the beaches and the very ocean that they are murdering.

What will they do when the whole thing collapses and a massive tsunami washes up on five gulf of Mexico states? Restrict access to the whole southeast? Bully the government into pulling a Katrina and imprisoning those people who didn't get out so that they cannot tell first hand a truth that will most certainly contradict their own ever-escalating lies?

This whole situation reminds me of the Alien movies, where at the end you realize that the real monster isn't the Xenomorphs, it's the corporation that is willing to sacrifice peoples' lives to capture it and use it as a weapon.

reply to post by Gold_Bug

Expert predicts 450 ton BOP will collapse well - Gusher Unstoppable?

EXPERT ???
for BP spurt???

HOAX!!

calling anyone an expert concerning this subject matter is a personal insult to my intelligence.

other than that unfortified claim/rumor ....

great op
thanks,
ET

[edit on 20-6-2010 by Esoteric Teacher]

Good find, but this already has a thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

reply to post by Gold_Bug



Time for another undie change, this oil leak has really my pants in a bundle




[edit on 20-6-2010 by xX aFTeRm4Th Xx]

Originally posted by Morpheas
Good find, but this already has a thread:
www.abovetopsecret.com...

WOW! You are right. And, I even read part of that thread. But the original post on that thread was so very long, that I never digested the really important message from it.

That important message being: That "evidence" exists that the 450 ton BOP is collapsing, and that the Gusher may be Unstoppable. Hence, the reason I did not make the connection to that thread when I found the linked article.

Furthermore, I think that this thread, while duplicating some of the information in that other thread, IS VERY IMPORTANT, for another reason.

That reason is, credibility to the rant by being picked up and reprinted in an article.

Wonderful article. I read that awhile ago... YES it makes perfect sense.

If our globe was 20-30 miles in diameter I would be horrified.

Step 1... Send the blogger to a NASA website to view pictures of glorious planet from space... Preferably pictures of the gulf spanning from Florida to Texas.

Step 2... Now, IF YOU CAN... Imagine a 2' or 3' circumference hole punched through the mantle 4920' below sea level.

OOPS do you see the sheer volume of water... It is mind boggling.

Try this... Get the finest syringe that you can find ...

I'm not even going to humor 'horrific' conjecture of that blogger any further.

Yes, it's possible that someday the earth will implode (just like a human being would drain all their blood from a pin prick eventually) when it rips wide open when a 450 ton OMG BOP tips over and lets and even LARGER gaping hole of ... what 6' in diameter...

Go back and look at the Earth from space courtesy NASA ...

we paid for those awesome pictures you know...

ALOT of money...

Then examine the gulf area in the NASA photos again...

look really close... see if you can see that tiny pin prick...

If you cannot fathom (pun intended) the Earth's own healing ability (like a gaping volcano subsiding OMG use your brain) it will NOT cause the Earth to implode.

People focus sooooo closely ... They are so right down there with ROV's ...

OMG the BOP is 450 tons!?!? ONOZ! Don't sit under it or, yes, you will be crushed when it tips over.

Is 450 tons so heavy that it'll crack the Earth like an egg shell and ALL of the core will come belching out!!!???

HAHAH ... These BP ROV watchers and fear mongers need to get themselves onto another planet where their physics make sense.

As I stated above, if our globe was 20-30 miles in diameter we might have an issue like a pin on a ever so fragile egg shell.

This isn't rocket science. The atomic bomb won't ignite the air itself either.

The oil catastrophe is devastating; the mess is horrific by every measure; worst part is that it was caused by gross negligence... no doubt...

The Earth isn't about to crack open an spew the core all over creation.


EDIT TO ADD:
OKAY new approach to helping spread common sense (with humor)

Watch the movie Airplane again... Remember the woman that screaming in panic?

Someone slaps her to make her snap out of her panic...

Then the camera pans to aisle with people standing in line waiting to take their turn at slapping the screamer!

Priceless.

[edit on 6·20·10 by DrMattMaddix]

The burning question for me is…….
If this well is pressurized at 50billion psi so high that man made tools cannot contain it like “they” say, then how is making a relief well going to help?
The AWESOME pressure will blow up anything we could put on it, so “they” say.

Originally posted by Gold_Bug
It will continue to erode and flow out more oil and eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen. It is only a simple matter of who can "get there first"...us or the well."

This statement makes me wonder if the guy knows what he's talking about, because the offshore drilling experts have been dealing with this same shît for over half a century. Baby, all you gotta do is snake a tube down the well, inflate a hydraulic balloon under extreme pressure, and your leak is stopped. The experts could stop it in a day.

The DEAL is, the Global Union NEEDS a catastrophe to drive Cap & Trade, Carbon Taxes, Alternate Energy Source Development, etc, so they're MAKING a catastrophe where one doesn't exist.

They DON'T WANT to stop this leak.

I lived on the Gulf Coast, right there in Southeast Texas, and I fished the Gulf for nearly 40 years, and I'm telling you there's been crude oil coming ashore in the Gulf for as long as I can remember. Crude oil, tar balls and asphalt have washed up on the beaches with regularity for decades.

I'm telling you, oil rigs LEAK CRUDE OIL nonstop, and I'm not talking about a few drops here and there. They leak 24-7-365. I've posted this photo before, a satellite view of the Gulf showing about a hundred-mile expanse of offshore drilling near the Texas/Louisiana coast...

[atsimg]http://files.abovetopsecret.com/images/member/e9615c13eda1.jpg[/atsimg]

So, in that picture alone, you're looking at dozens and dozens of individual oil slicks issuing from dozens and dozens of individual oil rigs, with some slicks over 70 miles in length. It's visible from space, for Godsake.

And this is what it looks like all the time. We've been swimming in the crude and eating it for longer than many of you have been alive. My point is,

This aint the first time

the offshore drilling experts have had to deal with spillage. This is just the first time the media noticed. This is just the first time an administration decided to use an everyday occurrence to justify its economic and ecological agenda. You're only aware of the BP leak because they decided to throw a spotlight on it and turn it into an "ecological catastrophe," which it isn't.

But it's going to be used to create fear in the masses. There are already people here on ATS who think the world is coming to an end because of this goddamned oil leak.

Just take a deep breath and relax.

On a seismically-active planet such as Earth, you know goddamned well that naturally-occurring fissures have released probably a million times as much oil and gas and methane into the oceans, long before human beings evolved.

So, WHERE is the paleontological evidence that crude oil released on a massive scale spells death for the marine environment? I don't think I've ever heard the scientists blame oil spills for any sort of extinction event in the entire history of the Earth.

So, on what grounds are the alarmists building their case? Seemingly, they're just feeding on one another's hysteria, even though the Gulf is quite naturally emulsifying the crude oil and breaking it down, as we speak. There is NO ecological catastrophe, just an unsightly mess that's bad for tourism.

— Doc Velocity








[edit on 6/20/2010 by Doc Velocity]

all i read was bla bla bla bla doomsday is coming bla bla bla bla...its a big problem...

his view on the possible solution...oh its a relief well...our last chance...

well bp are already onto that so...any other solutions to the problem?

reply to post by Doc Velocity


Unbelievable post

reply to post by Doc Velocity


it's not spillage that's concerning people. it's "gushage." spillage would be oops a bit of oil escaped from my tanker.

Originally posted by Morpheas
Unbelievable post

So, you don't think the ocean is entirely capable of absorbing and decomposing the crude oil... Hey, it's science, sweetheart. Some people have trouble understanding and accepting the fact that the Earth really can recycle its own components.

Gee, I thought only we omniscient Humans are capable of fixing Nature, right?

Get it through your head... Nature aint broke, doesn't need a fix. Offshore drillers know this, they know that, while some types of crude are toxic, they still degrade into non-toxic compounds, Oil drillers know that the ocean is altogether capable of handling and absorbing the Deepwater Horizon leak.

That's why they've allowed oil rigs to leak FOR DECADES, okay?

— Doc Velocity

Originally posted by DrMattMaddix
Wonderful article. I read that awhile ago... YES it makes perfect sense.

If our globe was 20-30 miles in diameter I would be horrified.

Step 1... Send the blogger to a NASA website to view pictures of glorious planet from space... Preferably pictures of the gulf spanning from Florida to Texas.

Step 2... Now, IF YOU CAN... Imagine a 2' or 3' circumference hole punched through the mantle 4920' below sea level.

OOPS do you see the sheer volume of water... It is mind boggling.

Try this... Get the finest syringe that you can find ...

I'm not even going to humor 'horrific' conjecture of that blogger any further.

Yes, it's possible that someday the earth will implode (just like a human being would drain all their blood from a pin prick eventually) when it rips wide open when a 450 ton OMG BOP tips over and lets and even LARGER gaping hole of ... what 6' in diameter...

Go back and look at the Earth from space courtesy NASA ...

we paid for those awesome pictures you know...

ALOT of money...

Then examine the gulf area in the NASA photos again...

look really close... see if you can see that tiny pin prick...

If you cannot fathom (pun intended) the Earth's own healing ability (like a gaping volcano subsiding OMG use your brain) it will NOT cause the Earth to implode.

People focus sooooo closely ... They are so right down there with ROV's ...

OMG the BOP is 450 tons!?!? ONOZ! Don't sit under it or, yes, you will be crushed when it tips over.

Is 450 tons so heavy that it'll crack the Earth like an egg shell and ALL of the core will come belching out!!!???

HAHAH ... These BP ROV watchers and fear mongers need to get themselves onto another planet where their physics make sense.

As I stated above, if our globe was 20-30 miles in diameter we might have an issue like a pin on a ever so fragile egg shell.

This isn't rocket science. The atomic bomb won't ignite the air itself either.

The oil catastrophe is devastating; the mess is horrific by every measure; worst part is that it was caused by gross negligence... no doubt...

The Earth isn't about to crack open an spew the core all over creation.

 

EDIT TO ADD:
OKAY new approach to helping spread common sense (with humor)

Watch the movie Airplane again... Remember the woman that screaming in panic?

Someone slaps her to make her snap out of her panic...

Then the camera pans to aisle with people standing in line waiting to take their turn at slapping the screamer!

Priceless.

[edit on 6·20·10 by DrMattMaddix]

All doomsday scenarios aside, downplaying the severity of this situation will NOT make it go away. You can convince yourself that this isn't going to escalate all day long but look at the facts!

There is an awful lot of seawater on earth, this fact is undeniable, but do you realize that it only takes 1 liter of oil to render 250,000 liters of seawater toxic to any form of life?

Conservative estimates place the amount of leaked crude oil somewhere in the neighborhood of 30,000,000 gallons, there is approximately 14 trillion gallons of seawater in our planets oceans...do the math.

Our entire oceanic eco-system will be destroyed in approximately 18 months time, this is 100% real and will be obvious to everyone on our planet by the end of this year.

reply to post by Doc Velocity

Leak how much for decades? A few thousand gallons here and there? What are we talking?

I think I understand that you don't want to be as alarmist as some are being here and may want to inject a bit of sanity, but it seems maybe this is way to far at the opposite end of the pendulum swing. This is not trivial by any measure.

Originally posted by g146541
The burning question for me is…….
If this well is pressurized at 50billion psi so high that man made tools cannot contain it like “they” say, then how is making a relief well going to help?
The AWESOME pressure will blow up anything we could put on it, so “they” say.

Unless you were being facetious I think you need to check your figures, the actual pressure is between 20,000-70,000 psi which is still significantly higher than what they're used to dealing with (1200-1500psi)

Originally posted by ~Lucidity
it's not spillage that's concerning people. it's "gushage." spillage would be oops a bit of oil escaped from my tanker.

Look... What we puny humans call a gusher is nothing. You need to keep this in perspective.

When a volcano erupts explosively, now that's impressive, it pollutes the whole bleeding atmosphere, might even change the climate for years, but the good Earth absorbs the toxins and greenhouse gases and keeps on rocking. So a few species of insect are driven to extinction as a result, no big deal.

99% of all life that has ever existed on Earth is extinct.

Eventually, every species we know will die off, including ourselves, and some other new species will take over.

Okay. You should be feeling pretty insignificant at this point. Good.

The Deepwater Horizon "gusher" doesn't mean shît. It's a heavy, dense form of crude (about the same density as seawater), it's not highly toxic and it degrades into a totally non-toxic form. The chemical dispersants (that white jizz you see in the robot-cam videos) are far more toxic than the oil they're trying to disperse.

Which is ridiculous.

The ocean knows what to do with crude oil. It's been dealing with the stuff for hundreds of millions of years. WE humans are the new, retarded kids on the block, and we overreact to everything with completely inappropriate measures. From Nature's perspective, humanity is some kind of brain-damaged mutant, always endeavoring to "fix" that which is not broken.

Let the fekking Deepwater Horizon gush all it wants... Eventually the pressure will equalize, and the well will be dead. Cool.

The ocean doesn't care — it will take as much oil as you can throw at it, and in five years there won't even be a stain left.

So relax and stop fear-mongering. There's no way in hell you can make the future better by worrying about it. Just stop drinking the koolaid, turn off the TV, research your own news, and learn the Truth.

— Doc Velocity

Originally posted by Gold_Bug

... eventually the inevitable collapse which cannot be stopped will happen.

No wonder Tony went sailing.

Everyone hates him and he knows the well is gonna collapse. And all Obama is worried about is shaking him down for $20 Billion in small unmarked bills.

Originally posted by ~Lucidity
Leak how much for decades? A few thousand gallons here and there? What are we talking?

Well, the normal leakage can be seen from space. 70-mile-long oil slicks are normal. There are 717 oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico and a number (not sure) of natural gas rigs that also leak oil. In fact, let's not even count the gas rigs. Let's say each oil rig leaks a very conservative thousand gallons of crude a day. That's 717,000 gallons of crude oil a day.

Divide by 55 = 13,036 barrels of oil a day.

Or about half a day's output for the Deepwater Horizon.

And this has been going on for over half a century.

— Doc Velocity

EDIT: Of course it's not scientific, it's just an approximation. The REAL amount of crude oil spilled into the Gulf is probably far greater. And NOBODY is talking about Mexico's state-owned Pemex Oil Company, which is sitting on top of oil reserves in the Gulf that would give Kuwait a run for its money.





[edit on 6/20/2010 by Doc Velocity]